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Rankings
#9 of 107 in Division 6
#4 of 27 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #20 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #8 in D6 (+440 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 47-0 A #513 Ayersville (0-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 35 (95%), perf. rating 142
08/28 W 43-30 H #226 Fairview (Sherwood) (1-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 3 (56%), perf. rating 137
09/04 A #379 Gibsonburg (1-1) D7 R26, pick: W by 27 (93%)
09/11 A #56 Archbold (2-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 22 (10%)
09/18 H #637 Swanton (1-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 49 (99%)
09/25 A #397 Wauseon (0-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/02 H #180 Patrick Henry (2-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 7 (67%)
10/09 H #23 Liberty Center (2-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/16 A #556 Evergreen (0-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/23 H #508 Bryan (0-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 39 (99%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
4.63 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#7 seed in R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
97% (bubble if 6-4), 70% home (maybe if 7-3), 15% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.58 ( 2.64- 6.45) 98% in, 73% home, 16% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 16%
Lose: 3.45 ( 2.25- 4.98) 77% in, 26% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Seneca East (2-0) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
(10%) 9W: 5.43 ( 5.15- 5.65) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 95%
(51%) 8W: 4.63 ( 4.30- 5.05) 100% in, 99% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), Patrick Henry (2-0) 14%
(31%) 7W: 3.98 ( 3.63- 4.34) 99% in, 30% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Patrick Henry (2-0) 15%
( 6%) 6W: 3.37 ( 3.08- 3.70) 74% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Fairview (Sherwood) (1-1) 17%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 7%) WWWWWLWW: 5.44 ( 5.15- 5.65) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #3 (#2-#6), bye 94%
( 3%) WLWWWWWW: 5.40 ( 5.19- 5.63) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(48%) WLWWWLWW: 4.63 ( 4.30- 4.99) 100% in, 99% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), Patrick Henry (2-0) 15%
(25%) WLWWLLWW: 3.96 ( 3.63- 4.22) 99% in, 24% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Patrick Henry (2-0) 17%
( 2%) LLWWLLWW: 3.40 ( 3.19- 3.53) 74% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Woodmore (2-0) 17%
( 2%) WLWLLLWW: 3.32 ( 3.08- 3.53) 70% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Fairview (Sherwood) (1-1) 19%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (2-0, 130.6, #148, D6 #9), 96% (bubble if 5-5), 68% home (maybe if 7-3), 17% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 123.3, #194, D6 #12), 71% (bubble if 6-4), 43% home (maybe if 7-3), 17% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 119.7, #204, D6 #16), 63% (bubble if 5-5), 44% home (maybe if 7-3), 21% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Last season 125.0