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Rankings
#22 of 106 in Division 5
#9 of 26 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #22 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #30 in D5 (+43 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 42-8 H #549 Ayersville (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 28 (90%), perf. rating 121
08/29 L 36-32 A #247 Fairview (Sherwood) (4-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 112
09/05 W 49-28 H #280 Gibsonburg (3-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 20 (13%), perf. rating 141
09/12 L 36-30 H #185 Archbold (3-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 3 (43%), perf. rating 115
09/19 A #626 Swanton (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 42 (99%)
09/26 H #382 Wauseon (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 21 (91%)
10/03 A #153 Patrick Henry (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/10 A #34 Liberty Center (4-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/17 H #289 Evergreen (4-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/24 A #479 Bryan (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 29 (97%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
11.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
57% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.60 ( 3.45-20.35) 57% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#4-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 22%
Based on eventual number of wins
(14%) 7W: 14.65 (12.30-19.10) 99% in, 21% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Genoa Area (3-1) 13%
(51%) 6W: 11.00 ( 8.90-14.90) 72% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 25%
(28%) 5W: 8.25 ( 5.95-11.85) 18% in, proj. out (#10-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 31%
( 6%) 4W: 6.50 ( 4.85- 9.95) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWLWWW: 15.35 (13.40-16.90) 100% in, 36% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Genoa Area (3-1) 13%
(13%) WWWLWW: 14.40 (12.30-17.60) 99% in, 19% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Genoa Area (3-1) 13%
( 2%) WWWLLW: 11.30 ( 9.70-13.40) 75% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 20%
(48%) WWLLWW: 11.00 ( 8.90-13.30) 72% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 26%
( 4%) WLLLWW: 9.50 ( 7.95-11.60) 43% in, proj. out (#10-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 32%
(22%) WWLLLW: 7.90 ( 5.95- 9.95) 12% in, proj. out (#10-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 32%
( 4%) WLLLLW: 6.50 ( 4.85- 8.40) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 50%
( 2%) WWLLLL: 6.30 ( 4.90- 8.00) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 118.0, #229, D5 #22), 57% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 118.0, #234, D5 #23), 65% (bubble if 6-4), 18% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 101.7, #350, D5 #41), 13% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 104.7, #324, D5 #34), 38% (bubble if 6-4), 11% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 100.7, #352, D5 #41), 44% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 105.9