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Region 14 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#17 of 102 in Division 4
#7 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #6 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #23 in D4 (+109 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 41-6 H #395 Bryan (1-5) D4 R14, pick: W by 33 (93%), perf. rating 144
08/28 W 31-21 H #312 Elida (2-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 6 (62%), perf. rating 120
09/04 W 43-20 A #305 Bath (2-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 145
09/11 L 49-28 A #82 Celina (6-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 8 (32%), perf. rating 114
09/18 W 61-28 H #342 Defiance (1-5) D3 R10, pick: W by 14 (81%), perf. rating 150
09/25 L 35-13 A #57 Wapakoneta (3-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 22 (8%), perf. rating 120
10/02 H #161 St Marys Memorial (3-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/09 A #72 Ottawa-Glandorf (6-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/16 H #200 Shawnee (Lima) (3-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/23 A #330 Kenton (1-5) D4 R14, pick: W by 21 (92%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
11.10 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
98% (bubble if 4-6), 71% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.10 ( 8.60-20.80) 99% in, 95% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Benjamin Logan (3-3) 19%
Lose: 10.10 ( 6.10-17.35) 96% in, 41% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Firelands (4-2) 24%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 8W: 18.85 (17.70-20.80) 100% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#8), Rossford (3-3) 17%
(36%) 7W: 14.20 (13.10-19.00) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #7 (#5-#9), Benjamin Logan (3-3) 20%
(35%) 6W: 11.10 ( 9.55-15.75) 100% in, 74% home, proj. #8 (#6-#12), Benjamin Logan (3-3) 23%
(18%) 5W: 8.55 ( 7.45-12.70) 98% in, 12% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Firelands (4-2) 27%
( 4%) 4W: 7.05 ( 6.10- 8.65) 53% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Bellevue (4-2) 30%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 7%) WWWW: 18.85 (17.70-20.80) 100% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#8), Rossford (3-3) 17%
( 2%) LWWW: 15.35 (14.25-17.35) 100% home, proj. #7 (#5-#8), Rossford (3-3) 17%
(32%) WLWW: 14.15 (13.10-15.95) 100% in, 99% home, proj. #7 (#5-#9), Benjamin Logan (3-3) 20%
(11%) WLLW: 11.60 (10.50-13.30) 100% in, 87% home, proj. #7 (#6-#10), Firelands (4-2) 21%
(21%) LLWW: 10.65 ( 9.55-13.85) 100% in, 64% home, proj. #8 (#6-#12), Benjamin Logan (3-3) 26%
( 3%) LLWL: 9.15 ( 8.15-11.30) 99% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Firelands (4-2) 29%
(13%) LLLW: 8.50 ( 7.45-10.20) 98% in, 7% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Firelands (4-2) 27%
( 4%) LLLL: 7.05 ( 6.10- 8.65) 53% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Bellevue (4-2) 30%
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (4-2, 128.7, #162, D4 #17), 98% (bubble if 4-6), 71% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 5 (4-1, 130.3, #152, D4 #19), likely in, 68% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 4 (3-1, 125.2, #181, D4 #23), 86% (bubble if 4-6), 28% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 3 (3-0, 129.5, #150, D4 #17), 86% (bubble if 5-5), 52% home (maybe if 6-4), 13% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 124.3, #187, D4 #23), 70% (bubble if 4-6), 41% home (maybe if 6-4), 12% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 121.2, #208, D4 #25), 51% (bubble if 5-5), 29% home (maybe if 7-3), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 118.8, #214, D4 #23), 56% (bubble if 5-5), 34% home (maybe if 6-4), 11% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Last season 121.7