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Rankings
#29 of 105 in Division 4
#9 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #9 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #41 in D4 (-60 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 42-7 A #479 Bryan (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 28 (90%), perf. rating 136
08/29 W 19-14 A #226 Elida (2-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 4 (58%), perf. rating 128
09/05 L 35-28 H #129 Bath (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 11 (27%), perf. rating 123
09/12 L 38-37 H #249 Celina (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 17 (84%), perf. rating 112
09/19 A #283 Defiance (2-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 8 (69%)
09/26 H #60 Wapakoneta (4-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/03 A #125 St Marys Memorial (2-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 18 (12%)
10/10 H #333 Ottawa-Glandorf (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 18 (88%)
10/17 A #155 Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 12 (21%)
10/24 H #348 Kenton (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 20 (91%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
8.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
43% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (likely needs 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.80 ( 4.70-23.60) 56% in, 14% home, 3% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Perkins (1-3) 14%
Lose: 6.15 ( 2.60-19.60) 14% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Napoleon (2-2) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 21.05 (18.85-23.60) 100% home, 78% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 78%
( 7%) 7W: 16.20 (14.05-20.50) 99% in, 85% home, 11% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Cloverleaf (3-1) 13%
(20%) 6W: 12.40 (10.25-17.85) 93% in, 12% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#4-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 16%
(36%) 5W: 8.80 ( 7.15-15.25) 39% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Napoleon (2-2) 16%
(23%) 4W: 6.70 ( 4.60-11.55) 5% in, proj. out (#9-out), Napoleon (2-2) 18%
(10%) 3W: 5.55 ( 3.60- 9.50) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 3%) 2W: 4.10 ( 2.60- 6.60) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 21.05 (18.85-23.60) 100% home, 78% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 78%
( 5%) WLWWWW: 16.05 (14.05-19.55) 99% in, 81% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Cloverleaf (3-1) 14%
(11%) WLLWWW: 12.35 (10.25-16.35) 94% in, 9% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 16%
( 5%) WLWWLW: 11.90 (10.35-15.20) 89% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 15%
(28%) WLLWLW: 8.75 ( 7.15-12.15) 33% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Perkins (1-3) 16%
( 5%) WLLWLL: 7.20 ( 5.70-10.00) 6% in, proj. out (#10-out), Bath (3-1) 17%
(13%) LLLWLW: 6.15 ( 4.60- 9.35) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 25%
( 3%) LLLLLL: 4.10 ( 2.60- 6.60) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 121.1, #208, D4 #29), 43% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (likely needs 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 126.1, #181, D4 #22), 70% (bubble if 5-5), 36% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 125.6, #179, D4 #23), 69% (bubble if 5-5), 44% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 121.4, #198, D4 #24), 49% (bubble if 6-4), 30% home (maybe if 7-3), 12% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 117.0, #227, D4 #29), 42% (bubble if 5-5), 24% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 112.0