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Rankings
#76 of 107 in Division 6
#22 of 27 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #21 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #103 in D6 (-820 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 34-6 A #414 Jefferson (2-0) D7 R26, pick: W by 29 (91%), perf. rating 52
08/28 L 20-15 A #553 Ottawa Hills (2-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 66
09/04 H #481 Lake (Millbury) (1-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 10 (28%)
09/11 A #397 Wauseon (0-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 24 (8%)
09/18 H #56 Archbold (2-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 49 (1%)
09/25 H #508 Bryan (0-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 5 (38%)
10/02 A #23 Liberty Center (2-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 49 (1%)
10/09 H #637 Swanton (1-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/16 H #148 Delta (2-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 40 (1%)
10/23 A #180 Patrick Henry (2-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 40 (1%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.03 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
unlikely to contend for playoffs
Depending on the next game
Win: 1.62 ( 0.55- 3.72) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Lose: 0.48 ( 0.00- 2.51) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 4W: 2.27 ( 2.15- 2.52) out, proj. out
(15%) 3W: 1.66 ( 1.58- 2.00) out, proj. out
(32%) 2W: 1.03 ( 1.03- 1.34) out, proj. out
(40%) 1W: 0.48 ( 0.48- 0.80) out, proj. out
( 9%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWLWLWLL: 2.26 ( 2.17- 2.42) out
(11%) WLLWLWLL: 1.67 ( 1.57- 1.96) out
(10%) WLLLLWLL: 1.08 ( 1.03- 1.24) out
(18%) LLLWLWLL: 1.03 ( 1.03- 1.20) out
(38%) LLLLLWLL: 0.48 ( 0.48- 0.62) out
( 9%) LLLLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 70.9, #556, D6 #76), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 70.5, #559, D6 #76), 2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 96.1, #401, D6 #42), 25% (bubble if 7-3), 9% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 95.7