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Rankings
#27 of 107 in Division 6
#12 of 26 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #22 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #20 in D6 (+120 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 41-7 H #538 Jefferson (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 30 (92%), perf. rating 122
08/29 W 42-0 H #520 Ottawa Hills (2-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 5 (60%), perf. rating 137
09/05 W 38-28 A #502 Lake (Millbury) (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 35 (97%), perf. rating 96
09/12 W 14-7 H #382 Wauseon (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 14 (80%), perf. rating 107
09/19 A #185 Archbold (3-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 17 (14%)
09/26 A #479 Bryan (1-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 25 (94%)
10/03 H #34 Liberty Center (4-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/10 A #626 Swanton (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 38 (99%)
10/17 A #229 Delta (2-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/24 H #153 Patrick Henry (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 19 (11%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
8.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
50% (bubble if 6-4), 13% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.65 ( 7.30-23.35) 96% in, 53% home, 14% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 15%
Lose: 8.70 ( 4.15-20.65) 43% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Archbold (3-1) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 9W: 18.00 (16.20-20.65) 100% home, 74% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 74%
(11%) 8W: 14.40 (12.20-17.30) 100% in, 79% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#12), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) 13%
(30%) 7W: 11.20 ( 8.75-14.95) 86% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Archbold (3-1) 13%
(51%) 6W: 8.25 ( 6.15-12.70) 21% in, proj. out (#9-out), Archbold (3-1) 13%
( 6%) 5W: 6.80 ( 4.15- 9.90) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWLWWW: 17.85 (16.20-19.90) 100% home, 74% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 74%
( 5%) LWLWWW: 14.40 (12.65-16.60) 100% in, 77% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#12), Patrick Henry (4-0) 13%
( 4%) WWLWWL: 14.05 (12.20-15.90) 100% in, 75% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Archbold (3-1) 16%
( 6%) LWLWLW: 11.65 ( 9.15-14.00) 98% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) 16%
( 5%) WWLWLL: 11.38 ( 9.35-13.75) 91% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Archbold (3-1) 14%
(18%) LWLWWL: 10.90 ( 8.75-13.20) 81% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Archbold (3-1) 17%
(50%) LWLWLL: 8.25 ( 6.15-12.00) 20% in, proj. out (#9-out), Archbold (3-1) 14%
( 5%) LLLWLL: 6.70 ( 4.15- 8.80) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Patrick Henry (4-0) 40%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 110.4, #289, D6 #27), 50% (bubble if 6-4), 13% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 3 (3-0, 109.3, #292, D6 #25), 52% (bubble if 6-4), 17% home (likely needs 8-2), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 120.0, #222, D6 #12), 81% (bubble if 6-4), 48% home (likely needs 8-2), 15% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 99.6, #366, D6 #33), 42% (bubble if 6-4), 19% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 96.4, #393, D6 #34), 29% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 99.2