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Rankings
#36 of 105 in Division 4
#11 of 26 in Region 13
Strength of schedule #28 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #47 in D4 (-95 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 30-0 A #63 Hoover (4-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 21 (17%), perf. rating 106
08/30 L 25-6 H #116 Warren G Harding (2-2) D2 R5, pick: L by 22 (13%), perf. rating 108
09/06 L 36-6 A #73 Lake Catholic (3-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 26 (7%), perf. rating 103
09/12 L 21-18 A #143 Kenston (2-2) D3 R9, pick: L by 32 (3%), perf. rating 131
09/19 A #38 Austintown-Fitch (3-1) D2 R5, pick: L by 33 (2%)
09/27 H #476 Firestone (0-4) D2 R5, pick: W by 30 (97%)
10/03 A #466 Ellet (1-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/11 A #495 Kenmore-Garfield (1-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/18 H #211 East (Akron) (2-2) D3 R9, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/25 H #629 North (Akron) (1-3) D2 R5, pick: W by 43 (99%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
7.45 Harbin points (divisor 97)
out of R13 playoffs
Playoff chances now
33% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.36 ( 7.66-18.24) 88% in, 25% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) 15%
Lose: 8.02 ( 1.01-13.72) 32% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), West Branch (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 16.54 (14.07-18.24) 100% in, 36% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) 16%
(41%) 5W: 12.13 (10.01-16.10) 73% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), West Branch (3-1) 14%
(49%) 4W: 7.45 ( 7.30-11.89) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out), Streetsboro (3-1) 18%
( 7%) 3W: 5.10 ( 4.43- 9.59) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWW: 16.54 (14.07-18.24) 100% in, 36% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) 16%
(41%) LWWWWW: 12.13 (11.25-13.72) 73% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), West Branch (3-1) 14%
( 1%) LWLWWW: 9.70 ( 8.02-10.91) 18% in, proj. out (#12-out), Glenville (2-2) 17%
(46%) LWWWLW: 7.45 ( 7.30- 9.36) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Streetsboro (3-1) 18%
( 2%) LLWWLW: 5.51 ( 4.89- 7.32) out
( 3%) LWLWLW: 5.10 ( 4.53- 7.26) out
( 3%) LWWLLW: 5.00 ( 4.43- 6.60) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 116.7, #240, D4 #36), 33% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (0-3, 106.5, #321, D4 #51), 22% (likely needs 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 112.6, #273, D4 #38), 42% (likely needs 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 112.2, #273, D4 #38), 41% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 118.3, #221, D4 #28), 51% (bubble if 5-5), 22% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Last season 113.3