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Rankings
#46 of 104 in Division 3
#14 of 26 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #64 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #21 in D3 (+110 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 35-8 A #102 Hoover (2-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 30 (8%), perf. rating 99
08/28 L 42-12 A #32 Indian Valley (3-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 40 (2%), perf. rating 121
09/05 W 14-13 H #175 Lake Catholic (1-2) D3 R9, pick: L by 17 (17%), perf. rating 125
09/12 H #470 Lutheran East (1-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 29 (96%)
09/19 H #52 Cardinal Mooney (2-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 29 (3%)
09/26 A #663 North (Akron) (1-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/02 A #570 Firestone (0-3) D2 R5, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/10 H #516 Ellet (0-3) D2 R5, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/17 H #443 Garfield (0-3) D2 R5, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/24 A #207 East (Akron) (2-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 7 (32%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
12.44 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#10 seed in R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
89% (bubble if 5-5), 44% home (maybe if 6-4), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.40 ( 4.67-24.96) 90% in, 46% home, 7% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), Cloverleaf (2-1) 10%
Lose: 10.27 ( 3.52-18.14) 59% in, 14% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#3-out), Holy Name (2-1) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 20.56 (16.27-24.96) 100% in, 99% home, 64% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 64%
(32%) 7W: 17.08 (11.83-21.98) 99% in, 89% home, 17% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 17%
(54%) 6W: 12.44 ( 8.85-18.80) 89% in, 25% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Cloverleaf (2-1) 11%
(10%) 5W: 10.22 ( 6.44-14.92) 58% in, 5% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Cloverleaf (2-1) 10%
( 2%) 4W: 8.01 ( 4.67-12.30) 22% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWWW: 20.56 (16.27-24.96) 100% in, 99% home, 64% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 64%
(30%) WLWWWWW: 17.18 (13.34-21.63) 99% in, 90% home, 17% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 17%
( 2%) WWWWWWL: 15.57 (11.83-19.61) 99% in, 72% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Holy Name (2-1) 10%
( 1%) LLWWWWW: 14.91 (12.24-17.44) 99% in, 61% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Wapakoneta (1-2) 12%
(51%) WLWWWWL: 12.39 ( 8.85-17.04) 89% in, 23% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Cloverleaf (2-1) 11%
( 2%) LLWWWWL: 10.37 ( 7.75-13.05) 63% in, 5% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Holy Name (2-1) 11%
( 2%) WLWWLWL: 10.02 ( 6.84-13.81) 60% in, 4% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Cloverleaf (2-1) 13%
( 4%) WLWWWLL: 9.97 ( 6.44-14.06) 51% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), St Marys Memorial (2-1) 10%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 116.7, #243, D3 #46), 89% (bubble if 5-5), 44% home (maybe if 6-4), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 2 (0-2, 112.7, #273, D3 #51), 64% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 112.0, #274, D3 #54), 72% (bubble if 4-6), 33% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 113.1, #261, D3 #50), 68% (bubble if 4-6), 38% home (maybe if 5-5), 10% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 5-5
Last season 113.7