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Rankings
#28 of 100 in Division 2
#8 of 25 in Region 7
Strength of schedule #14 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #39 in D2 (-16 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 35-8 H #243 Buchtel (1-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 30 (92%), perf. rating 155
08/28 W 18-14 A #221 Medina (0-3) D1 R1, pick: W by 28 (92%), perf. rating 128
09/04 L 22-15 H #77 Garfield Heights (3-0) D3 R9, pick: W by 4 (59%), perf. rating 130
09/11 H #94 Green (Uniontown) (2-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/18 H #176 Louisville (2-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 14 (81%)
09/25 H #214 GlenOak (1-2) D1 R1, pick: W by 18 (87%)
10/02 A #34 Canton McKinley (2-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/09 A #157 Perry (Massillon) (2-1) D2 R7, pick: W by 7 (68%)
10/16 H #80 Lake (Uniontown) (2-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/23 A #62 Jackson (Massillon) (1-2) D1 R1, pick: L by 14 (18%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
16.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R7 playoffs
Playoff chances now
60% (bubble if 5-5), 33% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 19.45 ( 5.95-32.70) 86% in, 57% home, 10% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), bye 11%
Lose: 12.05 ( 3.45-27.95) 36% in, 11% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Green (Uniontown) (2-1) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 9W: 29.25 (26.90-32.70) 100% home, 84% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#5), bye 84%
(10%) 8W: 24.45 (21.50-28.55) 100% in, 99% home, 25% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 25%
(18%) 7W: 20.50 (16.75-25.75) 99% in, 83% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), Walnut Ridge (0-3) 12%
(22%) 6W: 16.60 (12.60-23.05) 94% in, 23% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Walnut Ridge (0-3) 12%
(19%) 5W: 13.30 ( 9.95-19.05) 42% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Ashland (3-0) 13%
(15%) 4W: 10.45 ( 7.00-16.45) 5% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Green (Uniontown) (2-1) 16%
( 9%) 3W: 7.85 ( 4.85-12.55) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 4%) 2W: 5.80 ( 3.45- 8.90) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWWW: 29.25 (26.90-32.70) 100% home, 84% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#5), bye 84%
( 7%) WWWLWWW: 24.35 (21.50-27.90) 100% home, 24% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 24%
( 8%) WWWLWWL: 20.60 (17.45-24.85) 100% in, 93% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Walnut Ridge (0-3) 11%
( 5%) LWWLWWL: 16.60 (13.60-21.75) 96% in, 24% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Walnut Ridge (0-3) 14%
( 7%) WWWLWLL: 16.35 (12.90-21.20) 96% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Lake (Uniontown) (2-1) 14%
( 7%) LWWLWLL: 12.75 ( 9.95-16.95) 30% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Lake (Uniontown) (2-1) 15%
( 6%) LWWLLLL: 10.50 ( 7.00-14.20) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out), Green (Uniontown) (2-1) 18%
( 4%) LLLLLLL: 5.80 ( 3.45- 8.90) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 137.2, #102, D2 #28), 60% (bubble if 5-5), 33% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 141.2, #87, D2 #26), 71% (bubble if 5-5), 44% home (maybe if 7-3), 15% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 147.7, #65, D2 #23), 77% (bubble if 5-5), 51% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 146.6, #70, D2 #20), 68% (bubble if 6-4), 44% home (maybe if 7-3), 20% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Last season 150.3