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Rankings
#31 of 107 in Division 3
#12 of 27 in Region 9
Strength of schedule #8 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #45 in D3 (-85 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 30-13 H #252 Solon (1-3) D1 R1, pick: W by 22 (84%), perf. rating 139
08/29 L 35-30 A #95 Perry (2-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 16 (21%), perf. rating 137
09/05 L 48-45 H #120 Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (3-1) D4 R13, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 131
09/12 W 21-18 H #240 Buchtel (0-4) D4 R13, pick: W by 32 (97%), perf. rating 119
09/19 A #177 Manchester (Akron) (4-0) D5 R17, pick: W by 5 (62%)
09/26 A #232 North (Eastlake) (3-1) D2 R5, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/03 H #279 South (Willoughby) (2-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/10 H #103 Riverside (Painesville) (3-1) D2 R5, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/17 A #216 Mayfield (2-2) D2 R5, pick: W by 11 (77%)
10/24 A #117 Chardon (3-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 7 (32%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
18.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R9 playoffs
Playoff chances now
64% (bubble if 5-5), 40% home (maybe if 6-4), 15% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 20.55 ( 7.05-30.25) 82% in, 57% home, 23% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 28%
Lose: 13.50 ( 3.50-25.35) 33% in, 12% home, 2% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Gilmour Academy (1-3) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
(13%) 8W: 26.60 (24.00-30.25) 100% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 92%
(23%) 7W: 22.10 (19.00-26.80) 100% in, 96% home, 14% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 14%
(25%) 6W: 18.05 (13.70-22.70) 92% in, 23% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Gilmour Academy (1-3) 13%
(20%) 5W: 14.15 (11.10-19.25) 25% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Alliance (3-1) 14%
(12%) 4W: 10.60 ( 7.60-15.00) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 6%) 3W: 7.65 ( 4.75-11.10) out, proj. out
( 2%) 2W: 5.25 ( 3.50- 8.25) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(13%) WWWWWW: 26.60 (24.00-30.25) 100% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 92%
(10%) WWWWWL: 22.05 (19.00-25.65) 100% in, 93% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), East (Akron) (2-2) 11%
( 8%) WWWLWW: 21.73 (19.30-26.05) 100% in, 98% home, 13% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), East (Akron) (2-2) 14%
(10%) WWWLWL: 17.60 (13.70-21.30) 88% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Alliance (3-1) 16%
( 4%) WWWLLL: 14.40 (11.10-18.40) 32% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Alliance (3-1) 13%
( 7%) LWWLWL: 14.10 (11.15-17.05) 17% in, proj. out (#9-out), Villa Angela-St Joseph (2-1) 20%
( 4%) LWWLLL: 10.50 ( 7.60-13.50) out
( 2%) LLLLLL: 5.25 ( 3.50- 8.25) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 133.2, #143, D3 #31), 64% (bubble if 5-5), 40% home (maybe if 6-4), 15% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 143.9, #87, D3 #16), 82% (bubble if 6-4), 63% home (maybe if 7-3), 28% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 147.1, #75, D3 #12), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 73% home (maybe if 6-4), 50% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #2 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 145.2, #77, D3 #11), 78% (bubble if 6-4), 64% home (maybe if 7-3), 42% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 144.4, #80, D3 #14), 74% (bubble if 5-5), 57% home (maybe if 7-3), 32% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Last season 143.0