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Rankings
#6 of 105 in Division 4
#2 of 26 in Region 13
Strength of schedule #1 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #3 in D4 (+508 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 30-13 H #68 Cardinal Mooney (2-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 17 (78%), perf. rating 120
08/29 W 21-14 H #71 Avon Lake (1-3) D2 R6, pick: L by 5 (40%), perf. rating 155
09/06 W 36-6 H #240 Buchtel (0-4) D4 R13, pick: W by 26 (93%), perf. rating 159
09/12 W 31-14 A #169 Gilmour Academy (1-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 9 (70%), perf. rating 156
09/19 A #91 Benedictine (4-0) D3 R9, pick: W by 2 (55%)
09/26 H #70 Cuyahoga Val. Christian (3-0) D3 R9, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/03 A #265 Elyria Catholic (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/10 A #193 Padua Franciscan (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/17 H #195 Holy Name (3-1) D3 R10, pick: W by 23 (93%)
10/25 H #120 Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (3-1) D4 R13, pick: W by 11 (77%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
26.80 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#1 seed in R13 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 93% home (maybe if 5-5), 69% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 28.89 (13.37-34.34) 100% in, 99% home, 90% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#10), bye 90%
Lose: 21.25 ( 8.28-29.25) 99% in, 85% home, 44% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 45%
Based on eventual number of wins
(27%) 9W: 31.28 (27.04-34.34) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(29%) 8W: 26.80 (22.62-32.56) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(22%) 7W: 22.37 (18.34-28.54) 100% in, 99% home, 58% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 58%
(13%) 6W: 18.61 (14.83-24.78) 100% in, 91% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#10), Salem (2-2) 18%
( 6%) 5W: 15.66 (11.58-20.81) 99% in, 48% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Edgewood (Ashtabula) (3-1) 19%
( 2%) 4W: 12.40 ( 8.73-16.94) 89% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Norton (3-0) 14%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(27%) WWWWWW: 31.28 (27.04-34.34) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
( 4%) WWWWWL: 26.95 (22.72-30.47) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(11%) LWWWWW: 26.75 (23.02-29.25) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#6), bye 99%
(10%) WLWWWW: 26.44 (22.62-29.91) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#6), bye 99%
( 4%) WLWWWL: 22.40 (18.34-25.53) 100% home, 44% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#8), bye 44%
(10%) LLWWWW: 21.86 (18.65-25.89) 100% home, 58% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 58%
( 6%) LLWWWL: 17.99 (15.03-20.90) 100% in, 85% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Edgewood (Ashtabula) (3-1) 20%
( 1%) LLWLLL: 12.30 ( 8.73-14.14) 87% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Hubbard (4-0) 14%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 146.1, #73, D4 #6), likely in, 93% home (maybe if 5-5), 69% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 139.0, #103, D4 #12), 90% (bubble if 4-6), 69% home (maybe if 6-4), 29% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 139.1, #103, D4 #11), 85% (bubble if 4-6), 62% home (maybe if 5-5), 25% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 133.2, #134, D4 #13), 63% (bubble if 4-6), 42% home (maybe if 5-5), 17% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #7 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 147.6, #70, D4 #5), 85% (bubble if 4-6), 71% home (maybe if 6-4), 46% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Last season 148.4