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Rankings
#38 of 104 in Division 7
#10 of 25 in Region 25
Strength of schedule #46 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #26 in D7 (+60 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 24-20 H #571 Trinity (0-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 19 (81%), perf. rating 72
08/28 L 54-28 H #292 McDonald (2-0) D7 R25, pick: L by 23 (12%), perf. rating 69
09/04 A #659 East Palestine (0-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 31 (96%)
09/11 A #409 Mogadore (1-1) D7 R25, pick: L by 18 (14%)
09/18 A #579 Sandy Valley (0-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 9 (71%)
09/25 H #383 Newcomerstown (1-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 18 (13%)
10/02 A #673 Tuscarawas Cent. Cath. (0-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/09 A #619 Buckeye Trail (0-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/16 H #493 Strasburg-Franklin (2-0) D7 R27, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/23 H #494 East Canton (1-1) D7 R25, pick: L by 1 (47%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
3.06 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R25 playoffs
Playoff chances now
82% (bubble if 4-6), 53% home (maybe if 6-4), 16% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.02 ( 1.06- 5.17) 83% in, 54% home, 17% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), bye 20%
Lose: 1.98 ( 0.62- 4.38) 35% in, 12% home, 3% bye, proj. out (#3-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 9W: 4.84 ( 4.60- 5.17) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(11%) 8W: 4.24 ( 3.84- 4.55) 100% home, 82% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 82%
(20%) 7W: 3.62 ( 3.32- 4.02) 100% in, 99% home, 21% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#9), bye 21%
(24%) 6W: 3.06 ( 2.76- 3.47) 99% in, 70% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), St Paul (1-1) 12%
(22%) 5W: 2.52 ( 2.25- 2.91) 90% in, 10% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Independence (1-1) 13%
(14%) 4W: 2.03 ( 1.80- 2.36) 30% in, proj. out (#9-out), East Canton (1-1) 12%
( 5%) 3W: 1.56 ( 1.38- 1.87) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWWWW: 4.83 ( 4.60- 5.17) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 5%) WLWWWWWW: 4.28 ( 4.00- 4.55) 100% home, 78% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 78%
(10%) WLWLWWWW: 3.60 ( 3.31- 3.92) 100% in, 99% home, 18% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), bye 18%
( 7%) WLWLWWWL: 3.04 ( 2.77- 3.31) 100% in, 57% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Springfield (New Midd.) (1-1) 13%
( 7%) WLWLWWLW: 3.02 ( 2.79- 3.36) 99% in, 72% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Independence (1-1) 11%
( 9%) WLWLWWLL: 2.48 ( 2.25- 2.71) 84% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Independence (1-1) 13%
( 7%) WLLLWWLL: 2.00 ( 1.80- 2.27) 27% in, proj. out (#9-out), East Canton (1-1) 14%
( 4%) WLLLWLLL: 1.56 ( 1.38- 1.87) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 77.1, #515, D7 #38), 76% (bubble if 4-6), 47% home (maybe if 6-4), 16% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 82.1, #482, D7 #31), 86% (bubble if 4-6), 59% home (maybe if 6-4), 20% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 86.5, #457, D7 #28), 78% (bubble if 4-6), 56% home (maybe if 6-4), 26% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Last season 81.3