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Region 13 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#7 of 101 in Division 4
#2 of 24 in Region 13
Strength of schedule #46 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #22 in D4 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 A #253 St Clairsville (0-0) D4 R15, pick: W by 24 (86%)
08/28 A #200 New Philadelphia (0-0) D3 R11, pick: W by 19 (83%)
09/04 H #296 Struthers (0-0) D4 R13, pick: W by 30 (95%)
09/11 H #493 Howland (0-0) D3 R9, pick: W by 43 (99%)
09/18 A #495 Marlington (0-0) D4 R13, pick: W by 41 (99%)
09/25 H #121 Canfield (0-0) D3 R9, pick: W by 8 (69%)
10/02 A #421 Carrollton (0-0) D4 R15, pick: W by 35 (99%)
10/09 A #562 Minerva (0-0) D4 R15, pick: W by 46 (99%)
10/16 H #201 Alliance (0-0) D3 R9, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/23 H #237 Salem (0-0) D3 R9, pick: W by 25 (95%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
24.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#2 seed in R13 playoffs
Playoff chances now
97% (bubble if 4-6), 91% home (maybe if 6-4), 71% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 24.80 ( 2.85-36.85) 99% in, 95% home, 78% bye, proj. #2 (#1-out), bye 79%
Lose: 16.55 ( 0.00-29.85) 85% in, 65% home, 31% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 36%
Based on eventual number of wins
(32%) 10W: 28.25 (19.85-36.85) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 99%
(27%) 9W: 24.70 (16.40-33.45) 100% in, 99% home, 92% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#9), bye 92%
(18%) 8W: 21.15 (13.60-28.35) 100% in, 99% home, 65% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#11), bye 65%
(10%) 7W: 17.65 (11.15-25.00) 99% in, 91% home, 24% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 24%
( 6%) 6W: 14.48 ( 9.05-20.20) 98% in, 60% home, 4% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Lutheran East (0-0) 8%
( 4%) 5W: 11.45 ( 7.00-18.00) 83% in, 17% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), East (Akron) (0-0) 9%
( 2%) 4W: 8.40 ( 4.55-14.75) 39% in, 3% home, proj. out (#6-out), East (Akron) (0-0) 13%
( 1%) 3W: 5.90 ( 3.00- 9.90) 9% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Most likely first round opponents
Hubbard (0-0) 2%
Lutheran East (0-0) 2%
Orrville (0-0) 2%
Woodridge (0-0) 2%
Most likely second round opponents
East (Akron) (0-0) 10%
Norton (0-0) 10%
Poland Seminary (0-0) 9%
Rocky River (0-0) 9%
Northwest (Canal Fult.) (0-0) 8%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 66.7, #573, D4 #91), 11% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 141.6