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Rankings
#8 of 105 in Division 4
#3 of 26 in Region 13
Strength of schedule #36 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #14 in D4 (+272 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 26-21 A #48 Canfield (4-0) D3 R9, pick: W by 14 (74%), perf. rating 146
08/29 W 21-13 H #207 New Philadelphia (1-3) D3 R11, pick: W by 23 (88%), perf. rating 131
09/05 W 55-6 A #387 Struthers (0-4) D4 R13, pick: W by 22 (89%), perf. rating 162
09/12 W 27-6 A #238 Chaney (1-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 22 (90%), perf. rating 150
09/19 H #527 Howland (1-3) D3 R9, pick: W by 46 (99%)
09/26 A #461 Minerva (3-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/03 H #433 Marlington (2-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/10 H #111 Alliance (3-1) D3 R9, pick: W by 7 (68%)
10/17 H #444 Carrollton (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/24 A #227 Salem (2-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 23 (93%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
23.74 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#2 seed in R13 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 95% home (maybe if 7-3), 52% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 22.78 ( 9.32-27.53) 99% in, 95% home, 52% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 52%
Lose: 18.50 (12.95-24.15) 100% in, 81% home, 27% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#12), bye 27%
Based on eventual number of wins
(60%) 9W: 23.74 (20.46-27.53) 100% home, 82% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 82%
(34%) 8W: 19.35 (15.66-24.15) 100% in, 97% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Salem (2-2) 18%
( 6%) 7W: 15.92 (13.35-21.07) 100% in, 41% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-#12), Salem (2-2) 17%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(60%) WWWWWW: 23.74 (20.46-27.53) 100% home, 82% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 82%
( 4%) WWWWWL: 20.26 (16.78-23.69) 100% in, 97% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Edgewood (Ashtabula) (3-1) 16%
(28%) WWWLWW: 19.10 (15.66-22.63) 100% in, 97% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Salem (2-2) 20%
( 4%) WWWLWL: 15.64 (13.35-18.45) 100% in, 28% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Salem (2-2) 17%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 144.2, #85, D4 #8), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 7-3), 52% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 3 (2-1, 142.5, #91, D4 #9), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 7-3), 39% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #4 at 9-1
Week 2 (1-1, 131.5, #146, D4 #18), 98% (bubble if 5-5), 89% home (maybe if 6-4), 23% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 1 (0-1, 132.9, #135, D4 #14), 92% (bubble if 5-5), 74% home (maybe if 7-3), 19% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 140.2, #103, D4 #10), 93% (bubble if 5-5), 81% home (maybe if 6-4), 47% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Last season 142.6