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Rankings
#90 of 101 in Division 4
#23 of 26 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #61 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #54 in D4 (-200 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 42-7 H #280 United (2-1) D6 R21, pick: L by 25 (13%), perf. rating 58
08/28 W 40-7 A #674 Springfield (Akron) (0-3) D4 R13, pick: W by 23 (88%), perf. rating 80
09/04 W 35-27 H #586 Sandy Valley (0-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 4 (59%), perf. rating 72
09/11 A #377 Marlington (1-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 26 (6%)
09/18 H #322 Alliance (1-2) D3 R9, pick: L by 29 (3%)
09/25 H #103 Salem (3-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 43 (1%)
10/02 H #673 St Thomas Aquinas (1-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/09 H #69 West Branch (3-0) D4 R13, pick: L by 47 (1%)
10/16 A #337 Howland (3-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/23 A #376 Carrollton (1-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 26 (4%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
2.56 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.58 ( 1.96-22.08) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out)
Lose: 2.66 ( 0.95-15.02) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 9.31 ( 7.19-13.40) 8% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 3%) 5W: 6.64 ( 4.17-11.84) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(17%) 4W: 4.48 ( 2.66- 9.53) out, proj. out
(76%) 3W: 2.56 ( 1.70- 6.65) out, proj. out
( 2%) 2W: 1.30 ( 0.95- 2.77) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LLLWWLL: 7.36 ( 5.69- 9.53) out
( 1%) LLWWLLL: 7.15 ( 4.88- 8.77) out
( 3%) LLLWLWL: 5.13 ( 3.72- 8.52) out
( 3%) LWLWLLL: 4.83 ( 3.21- 7.61) out
( 4%) WLLWLLL: 4.02 ( 2.71- 6.95) out
( 6%) LLLWLLW: 3.92 ( 2.66- 6.40) out
(76%) LLLWLLL: 2.56 ( 1.70- 5.54) out
( 2%) LLLLLLL: 1.30 ( 0.95- 2.77) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 70.7, #555, D4 #90), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 68.3, #568, D4 #88), 1% (must have at least 6-4 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 63.7, #593, D4 #93), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 69.1, #562, D4 #89), 6% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Last season 78.3