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Region 15 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#89 of 101 in Division 4
#23 of 26 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #85 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #68 in D4 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 H #375 United (0-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 25 (13%)
08/28 A #658 Springfield (Akron) (0-0) D4 R13, pick: W by 24 (89%)
09/04 H #578 Sandy Valley (0-0) D5 R17, pick: W by 5 (61%)
09/11 A #495 Marlington (0-0) D4 R13, pick: L by 13 (22%)
09/18 H #201 Alliance (0-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 36 (1%)
09/25 H #237 Salem (0-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 34 (2%)
10/02 H #687 St Thomas Aquinas (0-0) D6 R21, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/09 H #89 West Branch (0-0) D4 R13, pick: L by 46 (1%)
10/16 A #493 Howland (0-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/23 A #421 Carrollton (0-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 24 (6%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.07 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
6% (bubble if 7-3), 2% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.96 ( 1.11-24.14) 24% in, 7% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Bishop Ready (0-0) 8%
Lose: 3.27 ( 0.00-22.13) 3% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Indian Creek (0-0) 8%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 9W: 18.24 (14.10-24.00) 99% in, 87% home, 23% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 23%
( 2%) 8W: 14.46 (10.26-21.93) 90% in, 38% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Indian Creek (0-0) 7%
( 5%) 7W: 11.28 ( 6.43-18.40) 49% in, 7% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Bishop Ready (0-0) 9%
( 9%) 6W: 8.56 ( 4.11-15.22) 14% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), St Clairsville (0-0) 10%
(14%) 5W: 6.24 ( 2.86-14.82) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
(19%) 4W: 4.43 ( 1.85-10.69) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(22%) 3W: 3.07 ( 1.35- 8.93) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(19%) 2W: 1.91 ( 0.85- 7.01) out, proj. out
( 8%) 1W: 0.85 ( 0.40- 5.30) out, proj. out
( 2%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Union Local (0-0) 7%
St Clairsville (0-0) 7%
West Muskingum (0-0) 7%
Indian Creek (0-0) 7%
Bishop Ready (0-0) 6%
Most likely second round opponents
New Lexington (0-0) 21%
Indian Valley (0-0) 20%
Buckeye Valley (0-0) 7%
Bishop Ready (0-0) 7%
St Clairsville (0-0) 5%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 91.7, #431, D4 #67), 35% (bubble if 5-5), 16% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 78.3