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Rankings
#76 of 107 in Division 7
#18 of 25 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #90 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #75 in D7 (-380 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 42-8 A #702 Beachwood (0-4) D5 R17, pick: W by 15 (75%), perf. rating 63
08/29 W 36-18 A #678 New London (2-2) D6 R21, pick: W by 26 (90%), perf. rating 62
09/06 L 52-45 A #612 Catholic Cent. (Steub.) (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 9 (31%), perf. rating 49
09/12 L 38-0 H #491 Grove City Christian (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 19 (13%), perf. rating 22
09/19 A #652 Fisher Catholic (3-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 1 (52%)
09/26 H #647 Fairfield Christian (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/03 H #415 Caldwell (2-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/10 A #587 Miller (3-1) D7 R27, pick: L by 18 (12%)
10/17 H #693 Millersport (2-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/24 A #628 Berne Union (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 9 (28%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
5.49 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
32% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.81 ( 3.37-16.43) 54% in, 18% home, 2% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Trimble (3-1) 11%
Lose: 4.53 ( 1.56-12.90) 9% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Trimble (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 7W: 12.45 (10.88-14.57) 100% in, 96% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 11%
(16%) 6W: 9.93 ( 8.31-12.10) 98% in, 24% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Trimble (3-1) 12%
(25%) 5W: 7.46 ( 5.99-10.69) 40% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Trimble (3-1) 16%
(28%) 4W: 5.49 ( 4.18- 8.32) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(21%) 3W: 3.37 ( 2.61- 5.95) out, proj. out
( 4%) 2W: 2.26 ( 1.56- 3.78) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWLWWW: 12.50 (11.34-13.96) 100% in, 97% home, 12% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), bye 12%
( 9%) WWLLWW: 9.93 ( 8.76-11.85) 99% in, 23% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 14%
( 4%) LWLLWW: 7.71 ( 6.60- 9.63) 39% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Fisher Catholic (3-1) 16%
(13%) WWLLWL: 7.10 ( 5.99- 9.43) 35% in, proj. out (#9-out), Trimble (3-1) 17%
(10%) WLLLWL: 5.49 ( 4.43- 7.81) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Trimble (3-1) 22%
(11%) LWLLWL: 5.24 ( 4.18- 6.90) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Strasburg-Franklin (4-0) 27%
(18%) LLLLWL: 3.37 ( 2.61- 4.89) out
( 4%) LLLLLL: 2.26 ( 1.56- 3.78) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 47.9, #650, D7 #76), 32% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (2-1, 53.2, #629, D7 #72), 44% (bubble if 5-5), 18% home (likely needs 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 52.8, #631, D7 #70), 42% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 54.7, #621, D7 #67), 49% (bubble if 6-4), 26% home (maybe if 7-3), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 44.7, #661, D7 #81), 42% (bubble if 5-5), 22% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 46.5