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Rankings
#34 of 104 in Division 7
#7 of 27 in Region 27
Strength of schedule #57 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #32 in D7 (+40 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 43-14 H #678 St Thomas Aquinas (1-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 38 (96%), perf. rating 69
08/28 W 28-0 H #621 Catholic Cent. (Steub.) (0-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 11 (71%), perf. rating 94
09/04 A #567 Harrison Central (1-1) D5 R17, pick: W by 9 (69%)
09/11 H #506 Conotton Valley (2-0) D7 R27, pick: W by 3 (56%)
09/18 A #534 Shadyside (2-0) D7 R27, pick: W by 4 (60%)
09/25 A #619 Buckeye Trail (0-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 22 (92%)
10/02 A #383 Newcomerstown (1-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/09 H #494 East Canton (1-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/16 A #516 Malvern (1-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/23 H #673 Tuscarawas Cent. Cath. (0-2) D7 R27, pick: W by 38 (99%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
3.62 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#6 seed in R27 playoffs
Playoff chances now
83% (bubble if 5-5), 64% home (maybe if 6-4), 34% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.10 ( 1.48- 5.78) 94% in, 77% home, 44% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 47%
Lose: 2.55 ( 0.90- 5.13) 55% in, 31% home, 8% bye, proj. #12 (#1-out), bye 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 10W: 5.44 ( 5.02- 5.78) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(17%) 9W: 4.79 ( 4.34- 5.16) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 94%
(18%) 8W: 4.20 ( 3.82- 4.58) 100% home, 54% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 54%
(18%) 7W: 3.62 ( 3.26- 3.99) 100% in, 95% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), South Gallia (2-0) 12%
(16%) 6W: 3.06 ( 2.78- 3.41) 99% in, 29% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Eastern (Beaver) (1-1) 11%
(11%) 5W: 2.50 ( 2.25- 2.91) 57% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Eastern (Beaver) (1-1) 18%
( 8%) 4W: 1.98 ( 1.72- 2.36) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 4%) 3W: 1.48 ( 1.26- 1.74) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 7%) WWWWWWWW: 5.44 ( 5.02- 5.78) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(11%) WWWWLWWW: 4.77 ( 4.34- 5.12) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 95%
( 3%) WWWWLLWW: 4.21 ( 3.90- 4.53) 100% home, 73% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#6), bye 73%
( 4%) WWWWLWLW: 4.19 ( 3.92- 4.58) 100% home, 60% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 60%
( 3%) WWLWLWWW: 4.19 ( 3.90- 4.45) 100% home, 43% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), bye 43%
( 4%) WLLWLLLW: 2.49 ( 2.25- 2.68) 55% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Conotton Valley (2-0) 22%
( 4%) LLLWLLLW: 1.92 ( 1.72- 2.12) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Conotton Valley (2-0) 50%
( 3%) LLLLLLLW: 1.48 ( 1.31- 1.65) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (2-0, 79.8, #493, D7 #34), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 65% home (maybe if 6-4), 35% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 70.6, #556, D7 #46), 68% (bubble if 5-5), 49% home (maybe if 6-4), 22% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 72.6, #540, D7 #42), 62% (bubble if 5-5), 41% home (maybe if 7-3), 18% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 6-4
Last season 78.3