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Rankings
#27 of 72 in Division 1
#7 of 18 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #13 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #47 in D1 (-230 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 35-20 H #51 Lakota East (3-1) D1 R4, pick: W by 14 (74%), perf. rating 126
08/29 L 20-7 A #13 St Xavier (4-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 28 (8%), perf. rating 157
09/05 L 48-0 A Carmel IN (3-1) D1
09/12 L 20-17 H #47 Kettering Fairmont (1-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 146
09/19 A #35 Springfield (1-3) D1 R2, pick: L by 14 (19%)
09/26 H #138 Beavercreek (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/03 H #167 Miamisburg (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 20 (90%)
10/10 A #316 Northmont (0-4) D1 R2, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/17 H #59 Springboro (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/24 A #32 Wayne (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 15 (16%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
9.42 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
32% (bubble if 4-6), 8% home (likely needs 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.64 ( 2.57-19.91) 75% in, 30% home, 5% bye, proj. #10 (#2-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 10%
Lose: 6.29 ( 0.00-17.24) 22% in, 3% home, proj. out (#5-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 6W: 17.33 (16.48-19.91) 100% in, 97% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 20%
(17%) 5W: 13.30 (11.94-18.00) 98% in, 20% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 13%
(31%) 4W: 9.42 ( 7.45-14.67) 35% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Findlay (3-1) 11%
(30%) 3W: 5.59 ( 4.32-11.50) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(14%) 2W: 2.51 ( 2.41- 6.45) out, proj. out
( 4%) 1W: 0.65 ( 0.65- 3.88) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWWWWW: 17.33 (16.48-19.91) 100% in, 97% home, 20% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), bye 20%
( 9%) LWWWWW: 13.91 (12.59-17.24) 99% in, 25% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 13%
( 7%) WWWWWL: 12.69 (11.94-15.98) 97% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 13%
(20%) LWWWWL: 9.42 ( 8.71-12.80) 33% in, proj. out (#9-out), Findlay (3-1) 13%
(21%) LWWWLL: 4.98 ( 4.88- 8.87) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Springboro (2-2) 33%
( 5%) LWLWLL: 3.12 ( 2.51- 5.74) out
( 8%) LLWWLL: 2.46 ( 2.41- 5.09) out
( 3%) LLLWLL: 0.65 ( 0.65- 1.96) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 147.1, #69, D1 #27), 32% (bubble if 4-6), 8% home (likely needs 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (0-3, 149.9, #59, D1 #23), 53% (bubble if 4-6), 25% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 151.3, #55, D1 #21), 70% (bubble if 4-6), 41% home (maybe if 5-5), 16% bye (likely needs 7-3), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 151.3, #57, D1 #25), 73% (bubble if 3-7), 45% home (maybe if 5-5), 20% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #7 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 163.6, #25, D1 #11), 91% (bubble if 3-7), 74% home (maybe if 5-5), 48% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #1 at 7-3
Last season 165.5