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Rankings
#38 of 79 in Division 1
#9 of 20 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #19 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #55 in D1 (-273 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 41-14 A #73 Lakota East (4-4) D1 R4, pick: L by 7 (37%), perf. rating 107
08/28 L 50-20 H Murfreesboro Oakland TN (6-1) D1
09/04 L 20-6 H #56 Olentangy Berlin (6-2) D1 R3, pick: L by 24 (9%), perf. rating 128
09/11 L 22-7 A #87 Kettering Fairmont (3-5) D1 R2, pick: L by 16 (17%), perf. rating 120
09/18 L 29-12 H #31 Springfield (6-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 24 (7%), perf. rating 135
09/25 L 21-20 A #143 Beavercreek (4-4) D1 R2, pick: W by 1 (53%), perf. rating 131
10/02 W 35-0 A #181 Miamisburg (4-4) D1 R2, pick: L by 10 (26%), perf. rating 180
10/09 W 42-17 H #316 Northmont (1-7) D1 R2, pick: W by 29 (97%), perf. rating 143
10/16 A #61 Springboro (5-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 11 (23%)
10/23 H #65 Wayne (4-4) D1 R2, pick: L by 6 (35%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
5.04 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
28% (bubble if 3-7), 2% home
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.58 ( 9.58-14.17) 91% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Hilliard Darby (4-4) 22%
Lose: 5.04 ( 5.04-10.28) 9% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wayne (4-4) 37%
Based on eventual number of wins
(11%) 4W: 13.51 (12.85-14.17) 99% in, 16% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Hilliard Darby (4-4) 37%
(37%) 3W: 8.97 ( 8.31-10.28) 46% in, proj. out (#10-out), Hilliard Bradley (5-3) 34%
(52%) 2W: 5.04 ( 5.04- 6.35) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(11%) WW: 13.51 (12.85-14.17) 99% in, 16% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Hilliard Darby (4-4) 37%
(12%) WL: 9.58 ( 9.58-10.23) 82% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Hilliard Bradley (5-3) 33%
(25%) LW: 8.97 ( 8.31-10.28) 29% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wayne (4-4) 37%
(52%) LL: 5.04 ( 5.04- 6.35) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (1-6, 140.0, #92, D1 #35), 33% (bubble if 3-7), 3% home, proj. #12 at 3-7
Week 6 (0-6, 128.3, #164, D1 #51), 6% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 5 (0-5, 130.2, #154, D1 #49), 19% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 4 (0-4, 131.0, #142, D1 #47), 22% (bubble if 3-7), 3% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 136.8, #106, D1 #35), 43% (bubble if 3-7), 14% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 133.9, #127, D1 #42), 41% (likely needs 4-6), 16% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 137.3, #111, D1 #39), 46% (bubble if 4-6), 23% home (maybe if 5-5), 7% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 147.6, #65, D1 #27), 73% (bubble if 4-6), 52% home (maybe if 5-5), 28% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 5-5
Last season 142.3