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Rankings
#35 of 79 in Division 1
#9 of 20 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #20 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #58 in D1 (-310 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 41-14 A #61 Lakota East (4-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 7 (37%), perf. rating 109
08/28 L 50-20 H Murfreesboro Oakland TN (6-1) D1
09/04 L 20-6 H #54 Olentangy Berlin (5-2) D1 R3, pick: L by 24 (9%), perf. rating 128
09/11 L 22-7 A #82 Kettering Fairmont (3-4) D1 R2, pick: L by 16 (17%), perf. rating 122
09/18 L 29-12 H #31 Springfield (5-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 24 (7%), perf. rating 134
09/25 L 21-20 A #143 Beavercreek (4-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 1 (53%), perf. rating 132
10/02 W 35-0 A #158 Miamisburg (4-3) D1 R2, pick: L by 10 (26%), perf. rating 183
10/09 H #310 Northmont (1-6) D1 R2, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/16 A #62 Springboro (4-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/23 H #77 Wayne (3-4) D1 R2, pick: L by 2 (45%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
8.97 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#12 seed in R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
32% (bubble if 3-7), 2% home
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.92 ( 5.04-14.17) 33% in, 2% home, proj. out (#6-out), Hilliard Darby (4-3) 23%
Lose: 3.83 ( 3.18-12.30) 9% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(16%) 4W: 12.85 (12.20-14.17) 96% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Grove City (4-3) 24%
(39%) 3W: 8.97 ( 8.31-12.30) 42% in, proj. out (#9-out), Hilliard Darby (4-3) 34%
(43%) 2W: 5.04 ( 5.04- 8.42) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 2%) 1W: 3.83 ( 3.18- 5.14) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(16%) WWW: 12.85 (12.20-14.17) 96% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Grove City (4-3) 24%
(28%) WLW: 8.97 ( 8.31-10.28) 39% in, proj. out (#10-out), Hilliard Darby (4-3) 38%
(11%) WWL: 8.92 ( 8.92-10.23) 49% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wayne (3-4) 37%
(42%) WLL: 5.04 ( 5.04- 7.01) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Miamisburg (4-3) 67%
( 2%) LLL: 3.83 ( 3.18- 5.14) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (1-6, 140.0, #92, D1 #35), 32% (bubble if 3-7), 2% home, proj. #12 at 3-7
Week 6 (0-6, 128.3, #164, D1 #51), 6% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 5 (0-5, 130.2, #154, D1 #49), 19% (bubble if 3-7), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 4 (0-4, 131.0, #142, D1 #47), 22% (bubble if 3-7), 3% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 136.8, #106, D1 #35), 43% (bubble if 3-7), 14% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 133.9, #127, D1 #42), 41% (likely needs 4-6), 16% home (maybe if 5-5), 3% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 137.3, #111, D1 #39), 46% (bubble if 4-6), 23% home (maybe if 5-5), 7% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 147.6, #65, D1 #27), 73% (bubble if 4-6), 52% home (maybe if 5-5), 28% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 5-5
Last season 142.3