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Rankings
#25 of 79 in Division 1
#8 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #25 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #26 in D1 (+94 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 41-14 H #92 Centerville (1-6) D1 R2, pick: W by 7 (63%), perf. rating 178
08/28 L 48-18 A #6 Lakota West (6-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 14 (24%), perf. rating 140
09/04 W 31-28 A #73 Oak Hills (4-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 151
09/11 W 24-20 H #121 Mason (2-5) D1 R4, pick: W by 26 (94%), perf. rating 139
09/18 W 37-13 A #299 Hamilton (1-6) D1 R4, pick: W by 27 (95%), perf. rating 147
09/25 L 48-22 H #4 Princeton (7-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 25 (6%), perf. rating 144
10/02 L 35-31 A #101 Fairfield (3-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 9 (72%), perf. rating 135
10/09 H #48 Middletown (4-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/16 A #100 Colerain (4-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/23 H #345 Sycamore (0-7) D1 R4, pick: W by 35 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
14.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
76% (likely needs 6-4), 27% home (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.80 (13.60-21.40) 99% in, 64% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), St Xavier (3-4) 20%
Lose: 13.60 ( 8.40-17.50) 58% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Lebanon (6-1) 24%
Based on eventual number of wins
(32%) 7W: 18.80 (17.50-21.40) 100% in, 83% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#10), Little Miami (4-3) 24%
(42%) 6W: 14.90 (12.95-19.45) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Lebanon (6-1) 23%
(25%) 5W: 11.00 ( 9.05-16.85) 5% in, proj. out (#9-out), Elder (5-2) 25%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(32%) WWW: 18.80 (17.50-21.40) 100% in, 83% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#10), Little Miami (4-3) 24%
(10%) WLW: 14.90 (13.60-18.15) 98% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Lebanon (6-1) 20%
(32%) LWW: 14.25 (12.95-17.50) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Lebanon (6-1) 24%
(24%) LLW: 11.00 ( 9.05-14.25) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), Elder (5-2) 26%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 147.5, #61, D1 #25), 76% (likely needs 6-4), 27% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 6 (4-2, 149.5, #60, D1 #24), 88% (likely needs 6-4), 33% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 5 (4-1, 151.6, #54, D1 #24), 94% (bubble if 5-5), 61% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 4 (3-1, 151.4, #55, D1 #25), 94% (bubble if 5-5), 65% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 157.8, #40, D1 #20), 97% (bubble if 5-5), 77% home (maybe if 7-3), 14% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 156.0, #48, D1 #23), 82% (bubble if 5-5), 49% home (maybe if 7-3), 14% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 163.2, #30, D1 #15), 92% (bubble if 5-5), 72% home (maybe if 6-4), 40% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 152.8, #46, D1 #21), 74% (bubble if 4-6), 52% home (maybe if 6-4), 27% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Last season 151.8