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Rankings
#20 of 72 in Division 1
#7 of 18 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #25 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #12 in D1 (+265 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 35-20 A #69 Centerville (0-4) D1 R2, pick: L by 14 (26%), perf. rating 171
08/29 W 14-7 H #132 Oak Hills (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 29 (93%), perf. rating 143
09/05 L 40-35 A #78 Mason (2-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 13 (77%), perf. rating 140
09/12 W 31-27 H #88 Hamilton (1-3) D1 R4, pick: W by 14 (80%), perf. rating 147
09/19 A #12 Princeton (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 25 (6%)
09/26 H #97 Fairfield (2-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 11 (76%)
10/03 A #56 Middletown (4-0) D1 R2, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/10 H #310 Colerain (0-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/17 A #300 Sycamore (0-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/24 H #21 Lakota West (2-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 16 (15%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
14.20 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 84% home (maybe if 5-5), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 24.60 (12.90-33.05) 100% in, 99% home, 42% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#9), bye 42%
Lose: 15.50 ( 7.05-27.20) 99% in, 83% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#2-out), Oak Hills (1-3) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 9W: 29.80 (26.60-33.05) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(13%) 8W: 23.95 (20.75-29.80) 100% home, 38% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#7), bye 38%
(32%) 7W: 18.80 (15.55-24.60) 100% in, 99% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#9), Oak Hills (1-3) 24%
(37%) 6W: 14.20 (11.00-21.35) 100% in, 90% home, proj. #8 (#5-#10), Oak Hills (1-3) 21%
(16%) 5W: 11.60 ( 8.40-18.10) 100% in, 35% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Mason (2-2) 30%
( 2%) 4W: 9.65 ( 7.10-14.20) 99% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Fairfield (2-2) 28%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 29.80 (26.60-33.05) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 2%) WWWWWL: 24.60 (21.40-27.85) 100% home, 29% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#7), bye 29%
(10%) LWWWWW: 23.95 (20.75-27.20) 100% home, 39% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 39%
( 4%) LWLWWW: 18.80 (16.20-22.65) 100% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#8), Oak Hills (1-3) 21%
(25%) LWWWWL: 18.75 (15.55-23.30) 100% in, 99% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#9), Oak Hills (1-3) 25%
( 6%) LLWWWL: 15.50 (12.95-19.40) 100% in, 79% home, proj. #8 (#5-#10), Mason (2-2) 32%
(28%) LWLWWL: 14.20 (11.00-17.45) 100% in, 92% home, proj. #8 (#6-#10), Oak Hills (1-3) 23%
(14%) LLLWWL: 10.95 ( 8.40-14.85) 100% in, 29% home, proj. #9 (#7-#12), Mason (2-2) 31%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 150.6, #51, D1 #20), likely in, 84% home (maybe if 5-5), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 153.7, #48, D1 #18), likely in, 82% home (maybe if 5-5), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 2 (2-0, 158.3, #39, D1 #16), likely in, 88% home (maybe if 5-5), 46% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 163.9, #27, D1 #12), likely in, 87% home (maybe if 6-4), 49% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 151.6, #53, D1 #25), 79% (bubble if 3-7), 51% home (maybe if 5-5), 22% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 5-5
Last season 158.2