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Rankings
#21 of 80 in Division 1
#8 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #25 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #65 in D1 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 H #65 Centerville (0-0) D1 R2, pick: W by 7 (63%)
08/28 A #25 Lakota West (0-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 14 (24%)
09/04 A #115 Oak Hills (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 15 (80%)
09/11 H #83 Mason (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 12 (76%)
09/18 A #73 Hamilton (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 5 (62%)
09/25 H #24 Princeton (0-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/02 A #101 Fairfield (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 12 (78%)
10/09 H #33 Middletown (0-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/16 A #258 Colerain (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/23 H #358 Sycamore (0-0) D1 R4, pick: W by 39 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
15.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#9 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
74% (bubble if 4-6), 52% home (maybe if 6-4), 27% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 21.35 ( 0.65-38.90) 88% in, 68% home, 38% bye, proj. #6 (#1-out), bye 43%
Lose: 9.10 ( 0.00-33.05) 50% in, 26% home, 9% bye, proj. #12 (#1-out), bye 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 10W: 34.35 (29.90-38.90) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(12%) 9W: 29.15 (24.05-36.30) 100% home, 95% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#7), bye 95%
(14%) 8W: 24.00 (18.85-32.35) 100% in, 99% home, 51% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#9), bye 51%
(14%) 7W: 19.50 (14.90-28.55) 100% in, 90% home, 10% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), bye 10%
(13%) 6W: 15.55 (10.40-23.30) 99% in, 44% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Elder (0-0) 11%
(12%) 5W: 11.70 ( 7.15-20.75) 84% in, 7% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Elder (0-0) 10%
(10%) 4W: 8.45 ( 4.55-16.90) 33% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Elder (0-0) 11%
( 8%) 3W: 5.80 ( 2.60-14.30) 5% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
( 6%) 2W: 2.60 ( 1.95-10.35) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 3%) 1W: 0.65 ( 0.65- 6.50) out, proj. out
( 1%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Elder (0-0) 6%
Lebanon (0-0) 5%
Middletown (0-0) 4%
Springboro (0-0) 4%
Most likely second round opponents
Archbishop Moeller (0-0) 11%
St Xavier (0-0) 11%
Elder (0-0) 10%
Winton Woods (0-0) 10%
Lakota West (0-0) 10%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 152.8, #46, D1 #21), 74% (bubble if 4-6), 52% home (maybe if 6-4), 27% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Last season 151.8