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Rankings
#23 of 80 in Division 1
#9 of 21 in Region 4
Strength of schedule #29 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #20 in D1 (+140 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 41-14 H #127 Centerville (0-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 7 (63%), perf. rating 172
08/28 L 48-18 A #4 Lakota West (2-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 14 (24%), perf. rating 141
09/04 A #47 Oak Hills (2-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 2 (46%)
09/11 H #156 Mason (1-1) D1 R4, pick: W by 26 (94%)
09/18 A #244 Hamilton (0-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 31 (97%)
09/25 H #13 Princeton (2-0) D1 R4, pick: L by 17 (14%)
10/02 A #108 Fairfield (1-1) D1 R4, pick: W by 17 (86%)
10/09 H #67 Middletown (0-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 11 (77%)
10/16 A #90 Colerain (1-1) D1 R4, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/23 H #362 Sycamore (0-2) D1 R4, pick: W by 40 (99%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
5.91 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R4 playoffs
Playoff chances now
89% (bubble if 5-5), 60% home (likely needs 7-3), 19% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.88 ( 3.18- 8.44) 99% in, 87% home, 38% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 38%
Lose: 4.88 ( 0.91- 7.41) 81% in, 38% home, 3% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Lebanon (2-0) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 9W: 8.06 ( 7.86- 8.44) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(24%) 8W: 6.95 ( 6.69- 7.66) 100% home, 40% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 40%
(27%) 7W: 5.91 ( 5.59- 6.56) 100% in, 88% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), St Xavier (1-1) 13%
(21%) 6W: 4.88 ( 4.55- 5.72) 99% in, 16% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Lebanon (2-0) 15%
(12%) 5W: 3.96 ( 3.64- 4.49) 66% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Springboro (1-1) 17%
( 5%) 4W: 3.12 ( 2.80- 3.70) 9% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WWWWWWWW: 8.05 ( 7.86- 8.45) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
( 4%) LWWWWWWW: 7.02 ( 6.70- 7.41) 100% home, 46% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 46%
(17%) WWWLWWWW: 6.92 ( 6.69- 7.28) 100% home, 34% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 34%
( 4%) WWWLWLWW: 5.91 ( 5.65- 6.30) 100% in, 89% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Oak Hills (2-0) 16%
(15%) LWWLWWWW: 5.85 ( 5.59- 6.17) 100% in, 86% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), St Xavier (1-1) 16%
( 6%) LWWLWLWW: 4.88 ( 4.62- 5.20) 100% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#7-#12), Middletown (0-2) 16%
( 5%) LWWLWWLW: 4.88 ( 4.62- 5.20) 100% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#6-#12), Lebanon (2-0) 16%
( 2%) LWWLLLLW: 3.06 ( 2.79- 3.38) 6% in, proj. out (#12-out), Elder (2-0) 29%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 156.0, #48, D1 #23), 82% (bubble if 5-5), 49% home (maybe if 7-3), 14% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 163.2, #30, D1 #15), 92% (bubble if 5-5), 72% home (maybe if 6-4), 40% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 152.8, #46, D1 #21), 74% (bubble if 4-6), 52% home (maybe if 6-4), 27% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Last season 151.8