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Rankings
#33 of 79 in Division 1
#7 of 20 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #15 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #29 in D1 (+58 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 35-25 A #101 Fairfield (3-4) D1 R4, pick: W by 13 (72%), perf. rating 126
08/28 L 35-7 H #14 St Xavier (3-4) D1 R4, pick: L by 21 (15%), perf. rating 131
09/04 L 48-21 H #5 St Edward (6-1) D1 R1, pick: L by 30 (5%), perf. rating 141
09/11 W 42-26 A #62 Springboro (4-3) D1 R4, pick: L by 23 (9%), perf. rating 173
09/18 W 41-35 H #82 Kettering Fairmont (3-4) D1 R2, pick: W by 2 (55%), perf. rating 149
09/25 W 49-24 A #310 Northmont (1-6) D1 R2, pick: W by 31 (98%), perf. rating 147
10/02 L 43-12 A #31 Springfield (5-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 9 (28%), perf. rating 117
10/09 H #158 Miamisburg (4-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 17 (87%)
10/16 H #143 Beavercreek (4-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 14 (82%)
10/23 A #92 Centerville (1-6) D1 R2, pick: W by 2 (55%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
16.53 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#6 seed in R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 85% home (maybe if 4-6), 19% bye (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.50 (12.15-19.81) 99% in, 93% home, 21% bye, proj. #5 (#3-out), Beavercreek (4-3) 21%
Lose: 12.70 ( 7.66-15.98) 92% in, 31% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Grove City (4-3) 22%
Based on eventual number of wins
(45%) 6W: 18.50 (18.50-19.81) 100% home, 37% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), bye 37%
(38%) 5W: 16.53 (14.01-17.85) 100% in, 97% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Miamisburg (4-3) 17%
(14%) 4W: 12.80 (10.28-14.77) 99% in, 23% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Grove City (4-3) 24%
( 3%) 3W: 8.97 ( 7.66-10.94) 65% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Hilliard Darby (4-3) 26%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(45%) WWW: 18.50 (18.50-19.81) 100% home, 37% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), bye 37%
(29%) WWL: 16.53 (15.88-17.85) 100% home, 7% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#8), Miamisburg (4-3) 18%
( 5%) WLW: 15.42 (14.77-16.08) 100% in, 95% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Miamisburg (4-3) 24%
( 4%) LWW: 14.66 (14.01-15.98) 100% in, 81% home, proj. #7 (#5-#10), Grove City (4-3) 27%
( 8%) WLL: 12.80 (12.15-14.77) 99% in, 31% home, proj. #9 (#6-out), Grove City (4-3) 25%
( 5%) LWL: 12.70 (11.39-14.01) 99% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Grove City (4-3) 24%
( 3%) LLL: 8.97 ( 7.66-10.94) 65% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Hilliard Darby (4-3) 26%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (3-4, 143.8, #77, D1 #33), likely in, 85% home (maybe if 4-6), 19% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #6 at 5-5
Week 6 (3-3, 149.2, #61, D1 #25), likely in, 89% home (maybe if 5-5), 32% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. #5 at 6-4
Week 5 (2-3, 148.8, #64, D1 #27), likely in, 87% home (maybe if 5-5), 20% bye (likely needs 7-3), proj. #5 at 6-4
Week 4 (1-3, 148.3, #65, D1 #31), 95% (bubble if 3-7), 64% home (maybe if 5-5), 18% bye (likely needs 7-3), proj. #8 at 5-5
Week 3 (0-3, 135.6, #118, D1 #39), 42% (bubble if 3-7), 12% home (maybe if 5-5), 2% bye (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 136.7, #109, D1 #38), 49% (likely needs 4-6), 18% home (maybe if 5-5), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 144.5, #74, D1 #29), 56% (bubble if 4-6), 31% home (maybe if 5-5), 11% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 154.1, #42, D1 #20), 77% (bubble if 4-6), 56% home (maybe if 5-5), 31% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 6-4
Last season 153.8