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Rankings
#15 of 72 in Division 1
#2 of 18 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #9 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #32 in D1 (-12 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 21-14 A #43 Winton Woods (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 5 (41%), perf. rating 147
08/29 L 30-6 H #6 Walsh Jesuit (4-0) D2 R5, pick: L by 20 (16%), perf. rating 147
09/05 L 16-13 A #29 Trotwood-Madison (4-0) D2 R8, pick: L by 8 (33%), perf. rating 160
09/12 W 37-0 A #167 Miamisburg (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 11 (74%), perf. rating 186
09/19 H #69 Centerville (0-4) D1 R2, pick: W by 14 (81%)
09/26 A #59 Springboro (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 8 (69%)
10/03 A #32 Wayne (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/10 H #138 Beavercreek (2-2) D1 R2, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/17 A #47 Kettering Fairmont (1-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/24 H #316 Northmont (0-4) D1 R2, pick: W by 39 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
16.66 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#5 seed in R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
80% (bubble if 4-6), 53% home (likely needs 6-4), 23% bye (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.09 ( 3.09-21.49) 89% in, 61% home, 28% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 31%
Lose: 8.93 ( 1.16-19.97) 44% in, 16% home, 2% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Lebanon (3-1) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
(23%) 7W: 21.23 (21.18-21.49) 100% home, 89% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 89%
(30%) 6W: 16.66 (15.94-20.84) 100% in, 91% home, 8% bye, proj. #7 (#1-#11), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 13%
(23%) 5W: 12.69 (10.75-17.38) 97% in, 10% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 12%
(15%) 4W: 8.83 ( 6.99-13.52) 29% in, proj. out (#9-out), Springboro (2-2) 14%
( 7%) 3W: 5.57 ( 4.35- 9.71) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 2%) 2W: 2.47 ( 2.42- 6.40) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(23%) WWWWWW: 21.23 (21.18-21.49) 100% home, 89% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 89%
( 7%) WWWWLW: 16.81 (16.61-19.31) 100% in, 97% home, 10% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#9), Springboro (2-2) 12%
( 4%) WLWWWW: 16.71 (15.99-18.85) 100% in, 87% home, 8% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#10), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 12%
(16%) WWLWWW: 16.04 (15.94-18.03) 100% in, 88% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 14%
( 8%) WWLWLW: 12.18 (12.03-15.44) 97% in, 7% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Kettering Fairmont (1-3) 12%
( 6%) WLLWWW: 11.47 (10.75-14.83) 97% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 13%
( 7%) WLLWLW: 8.21 ( 7.50-11.53) 22% in, proj. out (#10-out), Springboro (2-2) 18%
( 2%) LLLLLW: 2.47 ( 2.42- 4.46) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 158.9, #35, D1 #15), 80% (bubble if 4-6), 53% home (likely needs 6-4), 23% bye (likely needs 7-3), proj. #5 at 6-4
Week 3 (0-3, 150.4, #56, D1 #21), 51% (bubble if 4-6), 21% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 149.2, #62, D1 #23), 61% (bubble if 4-6), 37% home (maybe if 5-5), 15% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 153.0, #50, D1 #21), 72% (bubble if 3-7), 48% home (maybe if 5-5), 26% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 154.7, #41, D1 #20), 76% (bubble if 4-6), 55% home (maybe if 6-4), 32% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 6-4
Last season 150.2