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Rankings
#69 of 80 in Division 1
#18 of 20 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #25 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #65 in D1 (-390 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 38-17 A #97 Lebanon (3-1) D1 R4, pick: L by 28 (10%), perf. rating 110
08/28 L 38-6 A #59 La Salle (2-2) D2 R8, pick: L by 34 (4%), perf. rating 105
09/04 W 38-0 H #445 KIPP Columbus (1-3) D3 R11, pick: W by 22 (89%), perf. rating 142
09/11 L 37-10 A #132 Beavercreek (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 18 (14%), perf. rating 94
09/18 A #60 Springboro (2-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 33 (2%)
09/25 H #65 Wayne (1-3) D1 R2, pick: L by 30 (3%)
10/02 H #62 Kettering Fairmont (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 30 (3%)
10/09 A #142 Centerville (0-4) D1 R2, pick: L by 22 (7%)
10/16 A #160 Miamisburg (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 20 (9%)
10/23 H #38 Springfield (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 35 (1%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
1.60 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.50 ( 3.05-22.85) 21% in, 2% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out)
Lose: 1.60 ( 1.15-16.40) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Hilliard Darby (3-1) 20%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 4W: 9.25 ( 6.85-12.50) 67% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 21%
( 5%) 3W: 6.05 ( 3.70-11.20) 10% in, proj. out (#10-out), Hilliard Darby (3-1) 24%
(22%) 2W: 3.65 ( 1.80- 8.20) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(71%) 1W: 1.60 ( 1.15- 3.80) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LLWLWL: 6.95 ( 5.55- 9.85) 20% in, proj. out (#11-out), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 27%
( 1%) LWLLWL: 6.70 ( 4.95- 9.35) 12% in, proj. out (#11-out), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 20%
( 2%) LLLWWL: 5.30 ( 4.30- 7.95) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Grove City (3-1) 20%
( 2%) LLWLLL: 4.80 ( 3.05- 7.95) out
( 2%) LWLLLL: 4.20 ( 2.45- 7.15) out
(10%) LLLLWL: 3.65 ( 3.00- 6.80) out
( 7%) LLLWLL: 2.65 ( 1.80- 5.90) out
(71%) LLLLLL: 1.60 ( 1.15- 3.80) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 110.2, #295, D1 #69), 1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (1-2, 114.4, #261, D1 #66), 6% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 108.2, #303, D1 #70), 5% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 106.5, #315, D1 #73), 5% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 0 (0-0, 106.4, #302, D1 #71), 11% (bubble if 4-6), 4% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 1-9
Last season 103.0