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Rankings
#43 of 72 in Division 1
#13 of 18 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #26 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #44 in D1 (-205 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 27-18 A #122 Xenia (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 18 (20%), perf. rating 125
08/29 W 62-0 H #646 Woodward (Cincy) (0-4) D3 R12, pick: W by 38 (97%), perf. rating 109
09/05 L 28-21 A #50 Harrison (3-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 33 (3%), perf. rating 142
09/12 W 34-0 A #316 Northmont (0-4) D1 R2, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 160
09/19 H #167 Miamisburg (1-3) D2 R8, pick: W by 7 (67%)
09/26 A #69 Centerville (0-4) D1 R2, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/03 H #59 Springboro (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 14 (18%)
10/10 A #35 Springfield (1-3) D1 R2, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/17 H #32 Wayne (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/24 H #47 Kettering Fairmont (1-3) D1 R2, pick: L by 17 (13%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
12% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.55 ( 2.95-21.70) 16% in, 5% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 11%
Lose: 1.20 ( 1.20-17.90) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 16.45 (15.70-19.65) 100% in, 95% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Springboro (2-2) 14%
( 5%) 6W: 12.65 (10.60-17.10) 98% in, 19% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 14%
(11%) 5W: 9.40 ( 7.40-13.35) 33% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Findlay (3-1) 12%
(23%) 4W: 6.20 ( 4.45-10.15) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(35%) 3W: 3.00 ( 2.50- 7.00) out, proj. out
(22%) 2W: 1.20 ( 1.20- 3.70) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWLLW: 12.00 (11.85-15.20) 98% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Hilliard Davidson (3-1) 13%
( 2%) WLWLLW: 10.00 ( 9.30-11.95) 39% in, proj. out (#10-out), Findlay (3-1) 15%
( 2%) WWWLLL: 9.30 ( 8.65-10.70) 20% in, proj. out (#10-out), Wayne (2-2) 18%
( 6%) WLWLLL: 6.75 ( 6.10- 9.40) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Dublin Jerome (3-1) 25%
( 6%) WLLLLW: 6.18 ( 5.50- 8.80) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Wayne (2-2) 38%
( 5%) WWLLLL: 4.95 ( 4.85- 7.45) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Wayne (2-2) 100%
(28%) WLLLLL: 3.00 ( 2.95- 5.60) out
(22%) LLLLLL: 1.20 ( 1.20- 3.70) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 133.4, #138, D1 #43), 12% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 124.2, #193, D1 #51), 6% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (1-1, 114.5, #262, D1 #60), 6% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (0-1, 112.6, #270, D1 #61), 9% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home, proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 111.2, #265, D1 #64), 17% (bubble if 4-6), 5% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 113.2