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Rankings
#50 of 80 in Division 1
#13 of 20 in Region 2
Strength of schedule #50 in D1 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #56 in D1 (-225 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 44-14 H #270 Chaminade Julienne (1-3) D3 R12, pick: W by 22 (84%), perf. rating 157
08/28 L 32-28 A #198 Edgewood (Trenton) (2-2) D2 R8, pick: W by 14 (76%), perf. rating 119
09/04 W 21-14 A #237 Hilliard Davidson (1-3) D1 R2, pick: L by 11 (27%), perf. rating 130
09/11 L 41-14 A #38 Springfield (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 23 (9%), perf. rating 121
09/18 H #132 Beavercreek (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 3 (43%)
09/25 A #62 Kettering Fairmont (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 22 (8%)
10/02 H #142 Centerville (0-4) D1 R2, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/09 A #65 Wayne (1-3) D1 R2, pick: L by 22 (7%)
10/16 H #295 Northmont (1-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/23 H #60 Springboro (2-2) D1 R4, pick: L by 20 (9%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
7.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R2 playoffs
Playoff chances now
48% (bubble if 4-6), 7% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.30 ( 5.25-24.15) 83% in, 16% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#2-out), Grove City (3-1) 15%
Lose: 6.00 ( 2.30-20.10) 21% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 18%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 8W: 21.30 (20.00-24.15) 100% home, 41% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 41%
( 4%) 7W: 17.45 (15.50-21.70) 100% in, 92% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#10), Grove City (3-1) 20%
(10%) 6W: 13.75 (11.15-19.10) 99% in, 27% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Grove City (3-1) 25%
(21%) 5W: 10.35 ( 7.85-17.40) 93% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 16%
(29%) 4W: 7.75 ( 4.80-13.50) 41% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 19%
(26%) 3W: 5.35 ( 3.50-10.45) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 21%
( 8%) 2W: 4.10 ( 2.30- 6.90) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWW: 21.30 (20.00-24.15) 100% home, 41% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#7), bye 41%
( 4%) WLWLWW: 14.10 (12.25-17.00) 99% in, 19% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Grove City (3-1) 18%
( 3%) WLWWWL: 13.40 (11.65-16.80) 100% in, 30% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), Grove City (3-1) 32%
(12%) WLWLWL: 10.10 ( 7.85-13.45) 93% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Hilliard Darby (3-1) 17%
(11%) WLLLWL: 8.20 ( 6.45-11.85) 60% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Hilliard Darby (3-1) 18%
(13%) LLWLWL: 6.65 ( 4.80-10.20) 20% in, proj. out (#10-out), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 21%
(22%) LLLLWL: 5.35 ( 4.05- 9.40) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Hilliard Bradley (3-1) 23%
( 8%) LLLLLL: 4.10 ( 2.30- 6.90) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Grove City (3-1) 33%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 127.8, #160, D1 #50), 48% (bubble if 4-6), 7% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 3 (2-1, 131.4, #141, D1 #44), 62% (bubble if 4-6), 19% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 125.0, #183, D1 #54), 33% (bubble if 4-6), 11% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 130.4, #148, D1 #50), 47% (bubble if 5-5), 24% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 124.7, #177, D1 #53), 38% (bubble if 4-6), 18% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 126.4