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Rankings
#44 of 104 in Division 2
#10 of 23 in Region 8
Strength of schedule #12 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #63 in D2 (-272 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 34-0 H #371 Chaminade Julienne (0-4) D3 R12, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 148
08/29 L 10-6 A #161 Dublin Coffman (1-3) D1 R2, pick: W by 11 (71%), perf. rating 125
09/05 L 10-0 H #53 Hilliard Davidson (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 3 (43%), perf. rating 133
09/12 L 37-0 H #35 Springfield (1-3) D1 R2, pick: L by 11 (26%), perf. rating 102
09/19 A #138 Beavercreek (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 7 (33%)
09/26 H #47 Kettering Fairmont (1-3) D1 R2, pick: L by 21 (9%)
10/03 A #69 Centerville (0-4) D1 R2, pick: L by 20 (10%)
10/10 H #32 Wayne (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 26 (4%)
10/17 A #316 Northmont (0-4) D1 R2, pick: W by 19 (89%)
10/24 A #59 Springboro (2-2) D1 R2, pick: L by 22 (7%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R8 playoffs
Playoff chances now
4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.90 ( 2.40-20.30) 10% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 22%
Lose: 2.25 ( 0.55-15.20) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 13.35 (12.10-16.95) 98% in, 6% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), Lima Senior (2-2) 27%
( 5%) 5W: 10.15 ( 7.60-15.10) 36% in, proj. out (#9-out), Xenia (3-1) 25%
(11%) 4W: 7.30 ( 5.00-11.35) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(28%) 3W: 4.25 ( 2.50- 9.30) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(43%) 2W: 1.75 ( 1.20- 6.80) out, proj. out
(10%) 1W: 1.10 ( 0.55- 2.75) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLWLWW: 10.05 ( 8.85-13.15) 23% in, proj. out (#10-out), Xenia (3-1) 25%
( 3%) WLLLWW: 7.45 ( 6.25-11.35) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out), Butler (3-1) 50%
( 3%) WLWLWL: 6.05 ( 5.00- 8.65) out
( 4%) LLLLWW: 4.95 ( 3.75- 7.95) out
( 3%) LWLLWL: 4.82 ( 3.15- 7.95) out
(15%) WLLLWL: 4.10 ( 3.05- 6.85) out
(40%) LLLLWL: 1.75 ( 1.20- 4.65) out
(10%) LLLLLL: 1.10 ( 0.55- 2.75) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 128.6, #167, D2 #44), 4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 137.8, #112, D2 #32), 20% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 142.1, #87, D2 #25), 48% (bubble if 5-5), 20% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 146.7, #74, D2 #21), 59% (bubble if 5-5), 34% home (maybe if 7-3), 13% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 128.8, #161, D2 #38), 26% (bubble if 5-5), 13% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 121.8