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Rankings
#85 of 107 in Division 7
#26 of 29 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #64 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #73 in D7 (-370 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 41-0 H #312 Arlington (4-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 22 (16%), perf. rating 45
08/29 L 48-8 H #473 North Baltimore (4-0) D7 R26, pick: W by 18 (82%), perf. rating 21
09/05 W 8-0 A #694 Cory-Rawson (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 14 (78%), perf. rating 35
09/12 L 37-6 H #573 Waynesfield-Goshen (2-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 23 (9%), perf. rating 20
09/19 A #595 Perry (Lima) (2-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 23 (8%)
09/26 H #665 Ridgedale (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/03 A #526 Ridgemont (3-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/10 A #659 Toledo Christian (1-3) D7 R26, pick: L by 4 (40%)
10/17 A #574 Upper Scioto Valley (2-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/24 H #603 Elgin (2-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 19 (11%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.05 ( 1.85-13.00) 4% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Lose: 1.75 ( 0.35-11.55) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 5W: 6.90 ( 6.05- 8.75) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(11%) 4W: 4.70 ( 3.95- 7.30) out, proj. out
(24%) 3W: 3.20 ( 2.50- 5.75) out, proj. out
(32%) 2W: 1.45 ( 1.40- 3.60) out, proj. out
(29%) 1W: 0.35 ( 0.35- 2.15) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWLWLW: 6.90 ( 6.20- 7.95) out
( 2%) WWLWLL: 4.80 ( 4.35- 6.15) out
( 6%) LWLWLW: 4.65 ( 3.95- 6.15) out
( 3%) LWLLLW: 3.20 ( 2.85- 5.05) out
(14%) LWLWLL: 2.85 ( 2.50- 4.70) out
( 9%) LLLWLL: 1.80 ( 1.45- 3.25) out
(19%) LWLLLL: 1.40 ( 1.40- 2.80) out
(29%) LLLLLL: 0.35 ( 0.35- 2.15) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 39.2, #667, D7 #85), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 44.3, #651, D7 #77), 2% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 38.5, #666, D7 #82), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 61.3, #602, D7 #59), 36% (bubble if 6-4), 15% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 71.1, #551, D7 #48), 53% (bubble if 6-4), 29% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 71.7