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Rankings
#81 of 104 in Division 7
#19 of 26 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #81 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #85 in D7 (-625 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 26-6 H #617 Toledo Christian (1-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 15 (25%), perf. rating 24
08/28 L 56-18 A #449 North Baltimore (2-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 37 (3%), perf. rating 33
09/04 H #677 Ridgemont (0-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 7 (65%)
09/11 A #675 Ridgedale (0-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 3 (57%)
09/18 H #688 Cory-Rawson (0-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 13 (79%)
09/25 A #701 Vanlue (0-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/02 H #578 Perry (Lima) (1-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/09 A #562 Waynesfield-Goshen (1-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/16 H #602 Upper Scioto Valley (1-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/23 A #480 Elgin (2-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 37 (1%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
1.13 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
21% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 1.54 ( 0.35- 3.84) 30% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-1) 14%
Lose: 0.74 ( 0.00- 3.46) 4% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 6W: 2.60 ( 2.49- 2.87) 100% in, 42% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Fort Loramie (1-1) 19%
(12%) 5W: 2.05 ( 1.96- 2.47) 89% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-1) 16%
(29%) 4W: 1.54 ( 1.51- 1.89) 24% in, proj. out (#9-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-1) 15%
(25%) 3W: 1.13 ( 1.09- 1.46) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(19%) 2W: 0.74 ( 0.70- 1.09) out, proj. out
(10%) 1W: 0.35 ( 0.35- 0.58) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWWLLL: 2.05 ( 2.01- 2.28) 83% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-1) 20%
( 5%) WWWWLLWL: 2.01 ( 1.96- 2.28) 93% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Waynesfield-Goshen (1-1) 17%
(24%) WWWWLLLL: 1.54 ( 1.51- 1.78) 20% in, proj. out (#9-out), Cincinnati Country Day (1-1) 18%
(12%) WLWWLLLL: 1.12 ( 1.09- 1.28) out
( 7%) LWWWLLLL: 1.12 ( 1.09- 1.32) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Fort Loramie (1-1) 100%
(10%) LLWWLLLL: 0.74 ( 0.70- 0.89) out
( 5%) WLLWLLLL: 0.74 ( 0.70- 0.91) out
( 9%) LLLWLLLL: 0.35 ( 0.35- 0.51) out
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (0-2, 33.3, #664, D7 #81), 20% (bubble if 5-5), 3% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 36.0, #666, D7 #83), 20% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 40.3, #664, D7 #83), 19% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 30.5