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Rankings
#87 of 103 in Division 7
#25 of 26 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #75 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #98 in D7 (-890 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 40-14 H #571 Arcadia (1-3) D7 R26, pick: L by 25 (13%), perf. rating 26
08/28 L 36-0 A #608 Upper Scioto Valley (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 30 (7%), perf. rating 5
09/04 L 28-14 H #589 Perry (Lima) (2-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 33 (3%), perf. rating 39
09/11 L 35-14 A #596 Waynesfield-Goshen (2-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 29 (4%), perf. rating 30
09/18 A #655 Hardin Northern (1-3) D7 R28, pick: L by 12 (23%)
09/25 A #677 Ridgedale (0-4) D7 R28, pick: L by 5 (38%)
10/02 H #448 Elgin (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 41 (1%)
10/09 H #436 North Baltimore (4-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 41 (1%)
10/16 H #664 Ridgemont (1-3) D7 R28, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/23 A #604 Toledo Christian (2-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 28 (3%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
0.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.10 ( 0.70- 9.00) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
Lose: 0.35 ( 0.00- 9.65) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 4W: 3.90 ( 3.15- 8.95) 15% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 9%) 3W: 2.45 ( 2.10- 6.15) 1% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(22%) 2W: 1.40 ( 1.05- 5.45) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(33%) 1W: 0.70 ( 0.35- 3.65) out, proj. out
(34%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWLLWW: 3.85 ( 3.15- 5.35) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out), Montpelier (4-0) 36%
( 7%) WWLLWL: 2.45 ( 2.10- 3.90) out
(11%) LWLLWL: 1.40 ( 1.40- 2.85) out
( 5%) WWLLLL: 1.40 ( 1.05- 2.90) out
( 5%) WLLLLL: 1.05 ( 0.70- 1.80) out
(13%) LLLLWL: 0.70 ( 0.70- 1.80) out
(14%) LWLLLL: 0.35 ( 0.35- 1.80) out
(34%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 27.1, #681, D7 #87), 1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (0-3, 27.7, #678, D7 #86), 1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 21.9, #688, D7 #93), 1% (must have at least 2-8 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 23.9, #683, D7 #91), 3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 0 (0-0, 26.8, #682, D7 #92), 6% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 1-9
Last season 23.5