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Rankings
#70 of 107 in Division 6
#20 of 27 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #71 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #77 in D6 (-303 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 41-30 H #513 Elmwood (1-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 20 (82%), perf. rating 59
08/28 W 39-0 A #653 Hicksville (0-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 15 (77%), perf. rating 99
09/04 W 28-21 A #579 Arcadia (1-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 11 (73%), perf. rating 77
09/11 H #435 Northridge (1-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 12 (24%)
09/19 A #632 Crestline (2-1) D7 R27, pick: W by 23 (92%)
09/25 H #358 Margaretta (2-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/02 H #421 Gibsonburg (1-2) D7 R26, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/09 A #571 Ottawa Hills (3-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 7 (68%)
10/16 A #329 Woodmore (3-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/23 H #416 Northwood (2-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 14 (18%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
5.19 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
11% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.72 ( 2.36-20.82) 29% in, 10% home, 2% bye, proj. out (#2-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-0) 14%
Lose: 5.19 ( 1.05-18.25) 5% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-0) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 9W: 18.25 (15.72-20.82) 100% home, 58% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 58%
( 3%) 8W: 14.84 (12.54-18.25) 99% in, 61% home, 3% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Fairview (Sherwood) (2-1) 14%
( 6%) 7W: 12.09 ( 8.81-16.19) 75% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-0) 18%
(13%) 6W: 9.47 ( 6.24-13.97) 18% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-0) 21%
(22%) 5W: 7.25 ( 5.03-10.79) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(29%) 4W: 5.19 ( 3.12- 8.32) out, proj. out
(22%) 3W: 3.22 ( 2.01- 5.85) out, proj. out
( 5%) 2W: 1.46 ( 1.05- 2.92) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWWW: 18.25 (15.72-20.82) 100% home, 58% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 58%
( 3%) LWLWWLW: 9.37 ( 7.65-11.95) 11% in, proj. out (#10-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-0) 22%
( 6%) LWLLWLW: 7.56 ( 5.84- 9.98) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Carey (1-2) 29%
( 5%) WWLLWLL: 6.95 ( 5.23- 9.73) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Columbus Grove (3-0) 67%
( 4%) LWLWWLL: 6.60 ( 5.44- 9.17) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Seneca East (3-0) 100%
(20%) LWLLWLL: 5.19 ( 3.77- 7.51) out
(19%) LWLLLLL: 3.22 ( 2.16- 5.75) out
( 5%) LLLLLLL: 1.46 ( 1.05- 2.92) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 75.8, #528, D6 #70), 11% (bubble if 7-3), 3% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 76.8, #516, D6 #69), 17% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 64.3, #588, D6 #83), 7% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 76.5, #518, D6 #65), 29% (bubble if 7-3), 13% home (maybe if 8-2), 3% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 81.4