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Rankings
#58 of 107 in Division 6
#18 of 26 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #49 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #44 in D6 (-92 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 40-13 A #619 Elmwood (0-4) D6 R22, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 99
08/29 W 39-6 H #609 Arcadia (2-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 22 (87%), perf. rating 105
09/05 W 26-6 H #659 Toledo Christian (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 44 (99%), perf. rating 69
09/12 L 42-6 H #286 Woodmore (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 15 (19%), perf. rating 55
09/19 A #406 Calvert (1-3) D7 R26, pick: L by 18 (13%)
09/26 H #149 Hopewell-Loudon (4-0) D6 R22, pick: L by 37 (1%)
10/03 H #568 Willard (2-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 12 (78%)
10/10 H #280 Gibsonburg (3-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/17 A #260 Margaretta (3-1) D6 R22, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/24 A #508 Northwood (2-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 2 (44%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
4.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.85 ( 3.30-18.20) 17% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Archbold (3-1) 14%
Lose: 5.15 ( 2.25-15.20) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Archbold (3-1) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 11.20 ( 9.65-14.75) 79% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Patrick Henry (4-0) 14%
(11%) 6W: 8.55 ( 6.75-12.10) 22% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Archbold (3-1) 17%
(33%) 5W: 6.65 ( 4.55-10.40) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(40%) 4W: 4.80 ( 3.30- 7.45) out, proj. out
(14%) 3W: 3.35 ( 2.25- 5.20) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) LLWWLW: 9.25 ( 7.80-10.85) 34% in, proj. out (#10-out), Archbold (3-1) 22%
( 1%) LLWLWW: 9.25 ( 7.80-10.75) 39% in, proj. out (#9-out), Woodmore (4-0) 14%
( 6%) WLWLLW: 8.20 ( 6.75-10.10) 11% in, proj. out (#10-out), Archbold (3-1) 18%
(26%) LLWLLW: 6.65 ( 5.25- 8.55) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Margaretta (3-1) 29%
( 4%) WLWLLL: 6.05 ( 4.55- 8.00) out
( 7%) LLLLLW: 5.10 ( 3.65- 6.60) out
(32%) LLWLLL: 4.80 ( 3.40- 7.05) out
(14%) LLLLLL: 3.35 ( 2.25- 5.20) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 78.9, #503, D6 #58), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (3-0, 84.7, #465, D6 #53), 18% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 87.5, #451, D6 #49), 27% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home (likely needs 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 81.6, #501, D6 #59), 28% (bubble if 7-3), 10% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 67.4, #570, D6 #78), 17% (bubble if 7-3), 5% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 64.0