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Rankings
#52 of 107 in Division 7
#19 of 29 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #76 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #68 in D7 (-240 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 28-6 A #413 Ada (3-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 5 (41%), perf. rating 63
08/29 W 40-0 A #694 Cory-Rawson (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 40 (98%), perf. rating 83
09/05 W 36-14 H #573 Waynesfield-Goshen (2-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 7 (65%), perf. rating 99
09/12 L 28-0 A #595 Perry (Lima) (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 35 (98%), perf. rating 22
09/19 A #665 Ridgedale (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 24 (93%)
09/26 H #526 Ridgemont (3-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 7 (33%)
10/03 H #659 Toledo Christian (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/10 H #603 Elgin (2-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/17 H #667 Hardin Northern (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/24 A #473 North Baltimore (4-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 17 (13%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
9.00 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
49% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.30 ( 3.15-16.70) 51% in, 24% home, 6% bye, proj. #12 (#1-out), bye 13%
Lose: 6.82 ( 1.75-14.35) 18% in, 3% home, proj. out (#5-out), Edon (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 8W: 15.10 (13.65-16.70) 100% home, 68% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 68%
(25%) 7W: 11.85 (10.65-14.85) 99% in, 53% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Edon (3-1) 12%
(37%) 6W: 9.00 ( 7.80-12.65) 39% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Mohawk (3-1) 14%
(21%) 5W: 6.80 ( 5.65-10.10) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 7%) 4W: 5.35 ( 3.90- 7.60) out, proj. out
( 1%) 3W: 4.30 ( 2.45- 6.50) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WWWWWW: 15.10 (13.65-16.70) 100% home, 68% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 68%
( 6%) WLWWWW: 12.20 (10.65-14.10) 99% in, 56% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Edon (3-1) 10%
(18%) WWWWWL: 11.80 (10.70-13.80) 99% in, 49% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Edon (3-1) 12%
( 4%) WWWLWL: 9.60 ( 8.55-11.25) 69% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Mohawk (3-1) 17%
(29%) WLWWWL: 8.95 ( 7.80-10.90) 29% in, proj. out (#9-out), Mohawk (3-1) 14%
( 2%) LLWWWL: 7.55 ( 6.10- 9.35) 3% in, proj. out (#12-out), Mohawk (3-1) 50%
(14%) WLWLWL: 6.75 ( 5.65- 8.70) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Edon (3-1) 29%
( 2%) WLLLWL: 5.00 ( 4.20- 6.80) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 67.5, #574, D7 #52), 49% (bubble if 6-4), 22% home (maybe if 7-3), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 87.4, #443, D7 #32), 95% (bubble if 6-4), 79% home (likely needs 8-2), 44% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 2 (1-1, 84.1, #471, D7 #33), 81% (bubble if 6-4), 56% home (likely needs 8-2), 23% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 1 (0-1, 82.5, #494, D7 #36), 79% (bubble if 6-4), 57% home (maybe if 7-3), 22% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 91.7, #437, D7 #30), 85% (bubble if 6-4), 70% home (maybe if 7-3), 42% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 8-2
Last season 96.4