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Rankings
#77 of 103 in Division 7
#18 of 25 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #74 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #79 in D7 (-488 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 30-6 A #631 Riverdale (1-6) D7 R26, pick: W by 19 (81%), perf. rating 17
08/28 L 42-0 H #599 Perry (Lima) (3-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 12 (73%), perf. rating -6
09/04 W 21-20 A #646 Hardin Northern (3-4) D7 R28, pick: L by 7 (35%), perf. rating 45
09/11 L 32-26 H #622 Upper Scioto Valley (4-3) D7 R28, pick: L by 26 (6%), perf. rating 43
09/18 W 26-8 A #682 Ridgedale (0-7) D7 R28, pick: W by 2 (55%), perf. rating 57
09/25 L 50-22 H #479 North Baltimore (6-1) D7 R26, pick: L by 38 (1%), perf. rating 40
10/02 L 42-6 A #389 Van Buren (5-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 42 (1%), perf. rating 45
10/09 H #498 Elgin (5-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/16 A #677 Cory-Rawson (1-6) D7 R26, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/23 H #560 Waynesfield-Goshen (5-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 25 (5%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
2.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
8% (likely needs 4-6), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.35 ( 4.25- 8.90) 99% in, 10% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), New Bremen (3-4) 31%
Lose: 2.45 ( 1.75- 6.10) 6% in, proj. out (#10-out), New Bremen (3-4) 33%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 4W: 5.30 ( 4.95- 7.80) 99% in, proj. #11 (#9-out), New Bremen (3-4) 33%
(61%) 3W: 2.45 ( 2.45- 5.40) 4% in, proj. out (#10-out), New Bremen (3-4) 32%
(33%) 2W: 1.75 ( 1.75- 3.25) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWL: 5.35 ( 4.95- 6.05) 99% in, proj. #11 (#10-out), New Bremen (3-4) 32%
( 4%) LWW: 5.30 ( 5.30- 6.10) 99% in, proj. #11 (#10-out), New Bremen (3-4) 34%
( 1%) LLW: 4.60 ( 4.60- 5.35) 96% in, proj. #11 (#10-out), New Bremen (3-4) 43%
(59%) LWL: 2.45 ( 2.45- 3.95) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Waynesfield-Goshen (5-2) 40%
(33%) LLL: 1.75 ( 1.75- 3.25) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (2-5, 38.4, #659, D7 #77), 8% (likely needs 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 6 (2-4, 38.5, #656, D7 #78), 13% (likely needs 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 5 (2-3, 38.4, #656, D7 #78), 17% (likely needs 4-6), 2% home (likely needs 5-5), proj. out at 3-7
Week 4 (1-3, 34.0, #664, D7 #81), 11% (likely needs 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 30.5, #669, D7 #82), 10% (likely needs 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (0-2, 28.4, #677, D7 #90), 8% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 52.0, #632, D7 #67), 49% (bubble if 4-6), 23% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 70.4, #554, D7 #45), 73% (bubble if 5-5), 53% home (maybe if 6-4), 23% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Last season 69.4