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Rankings
#43 of 107 in Division 7
#15 of 29 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #86 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #58 in D7 (-183 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 28-7 A #641 Riverdale (0-4) D6 R22, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 84
08/29 W 45-6 A #595 Perry (Lima) (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 24 (89%), perf. rating 121
09/05 W 30-7 H #665 Ridgedale (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 34 (97%), perf. rating 72
09/12 L 30-29 A #603 Elgin (2-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 22 (90%), perf. rating 60
09/19 H #659 Toledo Christian (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 30 (97%)
09/26 A #574 Upper Scioto Valley (2-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 7 (67%)
10/03 H #667 Hardin Northern (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/10 A #473 North Baltimore (4-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/17 H #694 Cory-Rawson (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/24 A #573 Waynesfield-Goshen (2-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 6 (65%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
12.30 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
75% (bubble if 7-3), 46% home (maybe if 8-2), 18% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.50 ( 4.75-17.50) 76% in, 47% home, 19% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), bye 24%
Lose: 7.90 ( 4.00-14.85) 29% in, 8% home, 2% bye, proj. out (#3-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(20%) 9W: 15.55 (13.90-17.50) 100% home, 87% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 87%
(34%) 8W: 12.30 (10.70-16.30) 99% in, 75% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), Edgerton (4-0) 13%
(28%) 7W: 9.75 ( 8.60-14.50) 72% in, 4% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Mohawk (3-1) 12%
(16%) 6W: 7.55 ( 6.50-10.90) 6% in, proj. out (#9-out)
( 2%) 5W: 6.15 ( 4.75- 8.05) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(20%) WWWWWW: 15.55 (13.90-17.50) 100% home, 87% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 87%
( 4%) WLWWWW: 13.05 (11.50-14.90) 100% in, 87% home, 7% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Edon (3-1) 10%
( 5%) WWWWWL: 13.00 (11.45-14.90) 100% in, 87% home, 8% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#12), Edgerton (4-0) 12%
(25%) WWWLWW: 11.95 (10.70-14.20) 99% in, 70% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Edgerton (4-0) 14%
(13%) WWWLWL: 9.75 ( 8.60-12.00) 71% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Mohawk (3-1) 13%
(12%) WLWLWW: 9.75 ( 8.60-12.00) 71% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Edon (3-1) 12%
(13%) WLWLWL: 7.30 ( 6.50- 9.45) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Mohawk (3-1) 17%
( 1%) WLLLWL: 6.15 ( 4.75- 7.35) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 76.2, #526, D7 #43), 75% (bubble if 7-3), 46% home (maybe if 8-2), 18% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 3 (3-0, 78.0, #509, D7 #42), 70% (bubble if 7-3), 38% home (likely needs 9-1), 14% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #9 at 8-2
Week 2 (2-0, 83.5, #479, D7 #36), 82% (bubble if 7-3), 53% home (maybe if 8-2), 20% bye (likely needs 10-0), proj. #10 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 79.0, #522, D7 #44), 78% (bubble if 7-3), 51% home (maybe if 8-2), 17% bye (maybe if 10-0), proj. #8 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 68.2, #565, D7 #52), 47% (bubble if 6-4), 26% home (maybe if 8-2), 8% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Last season 75.5