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Rankings
#23 of 107 in Division 7
#9 of 29 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #30 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #41 in D7 (-8 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 46-20 A #369 Monroeville (2-2) D7 R25, pick: W by 11 (69%), perf. rating 63
08/30 W 41-7 A #659 Toledo Christian (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 94
09/05 L 52-9 A #57 Liberty-Benton (4-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 47 (1%), perf. rating 89
09/12 W 56-0 A #609 Arcadia (2-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 22 (90%), perf. rating 123
09/19 H #413 Ada (3-1) D7 R26, pick: W by 4 (60%)
09/26 A #449 Van Buren (1-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 7 (67%)
10/03 H #334 Leipsic (4-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 7 (33%)
10/10 H #312 Arlington (4-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/17 A #641 Riverdale (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/24 H #619 Elmwood (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 32 (98%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
8.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
42% (bubble if 6-4), 23% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.60 ( 4.45-16.15) 62% in, 36% home, 13% bye, proj. #11 (#1-out), bye 21%
Lose: 5.75 ( 2.20-13.50) 12% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Edon (3-1) 11%
Based on eventual number of wins
(13%) 8W: 14.65 (13.55-16.15) 100% home, 63% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 63%
(20%) 7W: 11.70 (10.20-15.05) 99% in, 50% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#3-out), Edgerton (4-0) 11%
(27%) 6W: 8.70 ( 7.60-12.30) 34% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Mohawk (3-1) 16%
(23%) 5W: 6.30 ( 5.05- 9.70) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(15%) 4W: 4.10 ( 3.05- 7.40) out, proj. out
( 2%) 3W: 3.30 ( 2.25- 5.50) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(13%) WWWWWW: 14.65 (13.55-16.15) 100% home, 63% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 63%
( 9%) WWWLWW: 11.70 (10.60-13.20) 99% in, 54% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Edgerton (4-0) 12%
( 7%) WWLWWW: 11.30 (10.20-13.35) 99% in, 36% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Pandora-Gilboa (2-2) 12%
( 4%) LWWLWW: 8.80 ( 7.70-10.55) 35% in, proj. out (#9-out), Edon (3-1) 13%
(15%) WWLLWW: 8.65 ( 7.60-10.20) 25% in, proj. out (#9-out), Mohawk (3-1) 19%
( 8%) WLLLWW: 6.30 ( 5.25- 8.20) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Ada (3-1) 25%
(10%) LWLLWW: 6.10 ( 5.05- 7.55) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Ada (3-1) 100%
(13%) LLLLWW: 4.10 ( 3.05- 5.55) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 95.5, #400, D7 #23), 42% (bubble if 6-4), 23% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 89.1, #431, D7 #28), 22% (likely needs 7-3), 8% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (1-1, 88.4, #445, D7 #30), 16% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 99.9, #361, D7 #21), 38% (bubble if 6-4), 14% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 116.6, #230, D7 #8), 80% (bubble if 6-4), 63% home (maybe if 7-3), 34% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Last season 111.3