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Rankings
#21 of 107 in Division 7
#9 of 29 in Region 26
Strength of schedule #28 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #59 in D7 (-60 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 46-20 A #205 Monroeville (1-0) D7 R25, pick: W by 11 (69%), perf. rating 84
08/29 A #697 Toledo Christian (0-1) D7 R26, pick: W by 49 (99%)
09/05 A #78 Liberty-Benton (1-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 35 (3%)
09/12 A #604 Arcadia (1-0) D7 R26, pick: W by 31 (97%)
09/19 H #336 Ada (1-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 2 (45%)
09/26 A #397 Van Buren (1-0) D6 R22, pick: W by 2 (55%)
10/03 H #290 Leipsic (1-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/10 H #321 Arlington (1-0) D7 R26, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/17 A #618 Riverdale (0-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/24 H #626 Elmwood (0-1) D6 R22, pick: W by 36 (99%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
7.95 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R26 playoffs
Playoff chances now
38% (bubble if 6-4), 14% home (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.60 ( 0.35-19.65) 39% in, 14% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Leipsic (1-0) 8%
Based on eventual number of wins
(12%) 8W: 13.50 (12.35-16.05) 100% in, 87% home, 4% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Ada (1-0) 9%
(20%) 7W: 10.55 ( 9.30-14.00) 93% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Mohawk (1-0) 9%
(23%) 6W: 7.95 ( 6.55-11.95) 28% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Ridgemont (1-0) 12%
(21%) 5W: 5.55 ( 4.40- 9.55) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(15%) 4W: 3.60 ( 2.60- 6.95) out, proj. out
( 6%) 3W: 2.25 ( 1.45- 4.75) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
Weekly summary info
Week 1 (0-1, 99.9, #361, D7 #21), 38% (bubble if 6-4), 14% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 116.6, #230, D7 #8), 80% (bubble if 6-4), 63% home (maybe if 7-3), 34% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Last season 111.3