Drew Pasteur's Ohio Fantastic 50

Ohio High School Football Rankings and Predictions

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Scores & schedules courtesy of Joe Eitel

#248 McComb Panthers (3-1) 115.0

Updated Sun 15-Sep-2024 08:20 AM
Week 4 complete

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Rankings
#11 of 104 in Division 7
#5 of 25 in Region 26

Schedule and results
08/23 (week 1) W 20-13 H #355 KIPP Columbus (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 37 (95%), perf. rating 109
08/30 (week 2) W 31-14 A #319 Crestview (Convoy) (2-2) D6 R22, pick: L by 1 (47%), perf. rating 132
09/06 (week 3) L 31-6 H #117 Liberty-Benton (3-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 97
09/13 (week 4) W 48-0 H #675 Arcadia (0-4) D7 R26, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 95
09/20 (week 5) A #435 Ada (3-1) D7 R26, pick: W by 21 (90%)
09/27 (week 6) H #441 Van Buren (2-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 25 (94%)
10/04 (week 7) A #344 Leipsic (2-2) D7 R26, pick: W by 11 (75%)
10/11 (week 8) A #419 Arlington (3-1) D7 R26, pick: W by 19 (88%)
10/18 (week 9) H #596 Riverdale (2-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 40 (99%)
10/25 (week 10) A #577 Elmwood (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 35 (98%)

Strength of schedule
(based on all regular season games)
#25 of 104 in Division 7

Regular season projections
9-1 record
15.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#3 seed in R26 playoffs

Playoff chances now
appears locked in, 77% home (maybe if 8-2), 29% twice (maybe if 9-1)

Depending on the next game
Win: 15.35 ( 7.05-17.95) 100% in, 83% home, 32% twice, proj. #5 (#2-#15), Arlington (3-1) 15%
Lose: 10.80 ( 4.85-15.55) 100% in, 22% home, proj. #11 (#5-#15), Lima Central Catholic (3-1) 13%

Based on eventual number of wins
(61%) 9W: 15.75 (14.15-17.95) 100% in, 99% home, 47% twice, proj. #5 (#2-#9), Arlington (3-1) 20%
(28%) 8W: 13.15 (11.70-15.65) 100% in, 59% home, 1% twice, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Pandora-Gilboa (2-2) 15%
( 9%) 7W: 10.75 ( 9.25-13.25) 100% in, 5% home, proj. #11 (#6-#14), Mohawk (3-1) 15%
( 2%) 6W: 8.35 ( 7.10-10.15) 100% in, proj. #13 (#11-#15), Gibsonburg (2-2) 21%

Under certain win/loss scenarios
(61%) WWWWWW: 15.75 (14.15-17.95) 100% in, 99% home, 47% twice, proj. #5 (#2-#9), Arlington (3-1) 20%
( 6%) WWWLWW: 13.40 (11.70-15.25) 100% in, 66% home, 1% twice, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Lima Central Catholic (3-1) 17%
(14%) WWLWWW: 13.13 (11.95-14.85) 100% in, 54% home, 1% twice, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Leipsic (2-2) 21%
( 3%) WLWWWW: 13.05 (11.80-15.05) 100% in, 62% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Pandora-Gilboa (2-2) 32%
( 4%) LWWWWW: 13.05 (12.00-15.55) 100% in, 54% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Lima Central Catholic (3-1) 17%
( 3%) WWLLWW: 10.90 ( 9.40-12.35) 100% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#8-#13), Upper Scioto Valley (3-1) 15%
( 2%) LWLWWW: 10.53 ( 9.75-12.00) 100% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#8-#14), Gibsonburg (2-2) 19%

Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 115.0, #248, D7 #11), appears locked in, 77% home (maybe if 8-2), 29% twice (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 3 (2-1, 117.9, #237, D7 #11), appears locked in, 93% home (maybe if 7-3), 62% twice (likely needs 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 127.3, #170, D7 #5), appears locked in and likely home, 87% twice (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 1 (1-0, 118.1, #228, D7 #7), likely in, 83% home (maybe if 7-3), 47% twice (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 130.7, #156, D7 #4), likely in, 89% home (maybe if 7-3), 63% twice (maybe if 9-1), proj. #2 at 9-1
Last season 132.0