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Rankings
#71 of 107 in Division 6
#17 of 27 in Region 21
Strength of schedule #69 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #74 in D6 (-296 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/20 W 14-13 A #590 Southeast (0-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 18 (80%), perf. rating 65
08/28 L 31-14 A #509 Independence (2-1) D7 R25, pick: W by 16 (79%), perf. rating 55
09/04 W 35-0 H #639 Trinity (0-3) D4 R13, pick: L by 1 (48%), perf. rating 98
09/11 H #47 Kirtland (2-1) D6 R21, pick: L by 49 (1%)
09/18 A #450 Chagrin Falls (2-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 13 (21%)
09/25 H #625 Fairport Harding (0-2) D7 R25, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/02 A #488 Berkshire (1-2) D5 R17, pick: L by 8 (30%)
10/09 H #348 Conneaut (3-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/16 A #522 Crestwood (0-3) D5 R17, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/23 H #449 Fairview (Fairv. Park) (0-3) D5 R18, pick: L by 10 (26%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
5.29 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R21 playoffs
Playoff chances now
9% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.57 ( 6.30-20.77) 70% in, 22% home, 6% bye, proj. #11 (#3-out), United (2-1) 16%
Lose: 5.69 ( 0.95-17.19) 9% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), United (2-1) 17%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 8W: 15.27 (13.50-18.45) 100% in, 41% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-#12), United (2-1) 18%
( 6%) 7W: 11.69 ( 8.96-16.18) 78% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), United (2-1) 19%
(13%) 6W: 9.17 ( 6.29-15.63) 19% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Mineral Ridge (3-0) 22%
(22%) 5W: 7.00 ( 3.46-12.60) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(28%) 4W: 5.29 ( 2.96-10.69) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(25%) 3W: 4.18 ( 1.65- 7.11) out, proj. out
( 4%) 2W: 2.62 ( 0.95- 4.28) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWWWWW: 15.17 (13.50-17.19) 100% in, 39% home, proj. #9 (#6-#12), United (2-1) 18%
( 5%) LLWWLWL: 6.64 ( 4.27- 9.22) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), United (2-1) 67%
( 6%) LLWLLWW: 6.09 ( 3.46- 9.02) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Mineral Ridge (3-0) 100%
( 6%) LLWWLLL: 5.74 ( 3.72- 8.06) out
( 6%) LLWLLLW: 4.93 ( 2.96- 7.71) out
(10%) LLWLLWL: 4.83 ( 2.96- 7.31) out
(22%) LLWLLLL: 4.23 ( 1.65- 6.30) out
( 4%) LLLLLLL: 2.62 ( 0.95- 4.28) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 75.7, #529, D6 #71), 9% (bubble if 7-3), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 65.2, #584, D6 #84), 5% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 78.2, #503, D6 #66), 39% (bubble if 6-4), 18% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 83.9, #477, D6 #57), 55% (bubble if 5-5), 29% home (maybe if 7-3), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 85.4