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Rankings
#66 of 106 in Division 5
#18 of 28 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #65 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #71 in D5 (-278 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 24-13 H #500 Jefferson Area (2-2) D4 R13, pick: W by 14 (74%), perf. rating 61
08/29 W 22-19 A #453 Orange (1-3) D4 R13, pick: L by 3 (43%), perf. rating 92
09/05 L 42-14 A #255 West Geauga (2-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 21 (12%), perf. rating 75
09/12 W 31-9 A #596 Independence (0-4) D7 R25, pick: W by 13 (78%), perf. rating 96
09/19 H #487 Cuyahoga Heights (2-1) D6 R21, pick: W by 6 (65%)
09/26 A #528 Crestwood (1-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 7 (67%)
10/03 H #422 Wickliffe (4-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/10 H #39 Kirtland (4-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 46 (1%)
10/17 A #391 Rootstown (4-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 15 (16%)
10/24 H #409 Berkshire (2-2) D5 R17, pick: L by 7 (32%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
8.06 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
43% (bubble if 5-5), 13% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.38 ( 4.79-22.44) 60% in, 19% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#1-out), Garfield (3-1) 13%
Lose: 5.09 ( 1.76-17.95) 13% in, 2% home, proj. out (#5-out), Liberty (3-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 7W: 16.59 (14.92-19.21) 100% in, 96% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Pymatuning Valley (3-1) 14%
(15%) 6W: 13.41 (11.19-16.79) 99% in, 38% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Pymatuning Valley (3-1) 14%
(21%) 5W: 10.53 ( 7.81-14.93) 79% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Garfield (3-1) 15%
(24%) 4W: 8.06 ( 5.23-12.16) 17% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), St Clairsville (3-1) 15%
(21%) 3W: 5.74 ( 3.07- 8.42) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(11%) 2W: 3.32 ( 1.76- 5.75) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 6%) WWWLWW: 16.54 (14.92-18.30) 100% in, 96% home, 9% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Pymatuning Valley (3-1) 14%
( 8%) WWWLLW: 13.06 (11.19-14.92) 99% in, 29% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Liberty (3-1) 16%
( 7%) WWWLLL: 10.89 ( 8.92-12.81) 76% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Garfield (3-1) 16%
( 6%) WWLLLW: 9.83 ( 7.81-12.10) 74% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Garfield (3-1) 16%
(12%) WWLLLL: 7.79 ( 5.84-10.24) 11% in, proj. out (#10-out), St Clairsville (3-1) 15%
( 8%) WLLLLL: 6.35 ( 4.79- 8.42) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), Edison (Richmond) (3-1) 19%
( 8%) LWLLLL: 4.99 ( 3.07- 6.91) out
(11%) LLLLLL: 3.32 ( 1.76- 5.75) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 84.8, #455, D5 #66), 43% (bubble if 5-5), 13% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 80.7, #494, D5 #71), 32% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 90.6, #428, D5 #60), 62% (bubble if 5-5), 35% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 87.7, #455, D5 #64), 38% (bubble if 5-5), 20% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 98.1, #374, D5 #44), 58% (bubble if 5-5), 38% home (maybe if 7-3), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Last season 101.8