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Rankings
#39 of 105 in Division 4
#12 of 26 in Region 13
Strength of schedule #41 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #39 in D4 (-52 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 28-18 A #118 Geneva (3-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 29 (9%), perf. rating 125
08/29 L 38-12 H #120 Notre Dame-Cath. Latin (3-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 32 (5%), perf. rating 97
09/05 W 42-14 H #455 Chagrin Falls (2-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 21 (88%), perf. rating 124
09/12 W 42-0 H #566 Conneaut (1-3) D4 R13, pick: W by 32 (97%), perf. rating 129
09/19 A #320 Edgewood (Ashtabula) (3-1) D4 R13, pick: W by 6 (65%)
09/26 A #81 Hawken (4-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/03 H #361 Harvey (2-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/10 A #539 Lutheran West (0-4) D3 R10, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/17 H #95 Perry (2-2) D4 R13, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/24 A #453 Orange (1-3) D4 R13, pick: W by 25 (95%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
13.35 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#11 seed in R13 playoffs
Playoff chances now
65% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.30 ( 5.75-23.70) 87% in, 12% home, 1% bye, proj. #11 (#2-out), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) 14%
Lose: 9.20 ( 2.55-18.90) 23% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 7W: 17.10 (14.55-21.65) 100% in, 63% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Hubbard (4-0) 18%
(46%) 6W: 13.35 (10.35-18.35) 96% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) 15%
(30%) 5W: 9.95 ( 7.85-14.65) 34% in, proj. out (#9-out), West Branch (3-1) 16%
(11%) 4W: 7.10 ( 4.70-11.15) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 2%) 3W: 5.00 ( 3.20- 8.45) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) WWWWLW: 18.15 (15.25-20.50) 100% in, 62% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) 18%
( 6%) WLWWWW: 16.70 (14.55-19.60) 100% in, 63% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#11), Hubbard (4-0) 20%
(43%) WLWWLW: 13.30 (10.35-15.85) 96% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) 15%
( 2%) WLWWLL: 11.05 ( 8.90-13.65) 54% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), West Branch (3-1) 17%
( 7%) WLLWLW: 10.30 ( 7.90-13.05) 40% in, proj. out (#9-out), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) 17%
(19%) LLWWLW: 9.75 ( 7.85-12.10) 28% in, proj. out (#10-out), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) 16%
( 7%) LLLWLW: 6.75 ( 4.70- 9.10) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Northwest (Canal Fult.) (2-1) 22%
( 2%) LLLWLL: 4.68 ( 3.20- 6.50) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 115.0, #255, D4 #39), 65% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 112.2, #273, D4 #44), 68% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 2 (0-2, 109.5, #296, D4 #44), 65% (bubble if 5-5), 20% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #11 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 109.7, #293, D4 #41), 56% (bubble if 5-5), 24% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 103.8, #325, D4 #51), 39% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 5-5
Last season 100.0