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Rankings
#77 of 106 in Division 5
#20 of 28 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #71 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #95 in D5 (-630 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 13-6 H #354 Mogadore (3-1) D7 R25, pick: L by 14 (26%), perf. rating 90
08/29 L 23-8 A #461 Minerva (3-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 31 (94%), perf. rating 64
09/05 L 36-32 H #487 Cuyahoga Heights (2-1) D6 R21, pick: L by 16 (19%), perf. rating 73
09/12 W 44-6 A #702 Beachwood (0-4) D5 R17, pick: W by 43 (99%), perf. rating 69
09/19 H #675 Brooklyn (0-4) D6 R21, pick: W by 33 (98%)
09/26 H #455 Chagrin Falls (2-2) D5 R17, pick: L by 7 (33%)
10/03 A #391 Rootstown (4-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 22 (8%)
10/10 H #409 Berkshire (2-2) D5 R17, pick: L by 16 (15%)
10/17 A #39 Kirtland (4-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 49 (1%)
10/24 A #422 Wickliffe (4-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 18 (12%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.47 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 2.97 ( 1.25-16.74) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Liberty (3-1) 14%
Lose: 0.80 ( 0.45- 8.32) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 12.15 (11.34-14.37) 96% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Liberty (3-1) 18%
( 5%) 5W: 8.77 ( 7.55-12.35) 35% in, proj. out (#9-out), Garfield (3-1) 15%
(15%) 4W: 6.14 ( 4.33-10.03) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(31%) 3W: 3.47 ( 2.56- 8.32) out, proj. out
(46%) 2W: 1.66 ( 1.25- 5.29) out, proj. out
( 1%) 1W: 0.80 ( 0.45- 1.26) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWLW: 12.15 (11.34-13.06) 96% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#7-out), Liberty (3-1) 19%
( 4%) WWLLLW: 6.19 ( 5.03- 7.56) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Girard (4-0) 100%
( 5%) WWLWLL: 5.08 ( 4.33- 7.26) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Garfield (3-1) 100%
( 6%) WLLLLW: 4.43 ( 3.32- 6.15) out
(16%) WWLLLL: 3.37 ( 2.56- 5.09) out
( 7%) WLLWLL: 3.32 ( 2.56- 5.44) out
(46%) WLLLLL: 1.66 ( 1.25- 2.97) out
( 1%) LLLLLL: 0.80 ( 0.45- 1.26) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 76.1, #528, D5 #77), 3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (0-3, 76.2, #527, D5 #77), 6% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 71.4, #558, D5 #84), 8% (likely needs 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 84.1, #478, D5 #71), 29% (bubble if 6-4), 10% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 82.8, #500, D5 #71), 27% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 84.6