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Rankings
#53 of 106 in Division 5
#14 of 28 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #58 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #54 in D5 (-175 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 57-41 H #361 Harvey (2-2) D3 R9, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 75
08/29 L 44-0 A #81 Hawken (4-0) D3 R9, pick: L by 25 (10%), perf. rating 84
09/05 W 48-0 H #686 Cardinal (0-3) D7 R25, pick: W by 39 (99%), perf. rating 89
09/13 W 43-6 A #601 Trinity (1-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 13 (78%), perf. rating 117
09/19 H #329 Fairview (Fairv. Park) (2-2) D5 R18, pick: L by 9 (28%)
09/26 H #391 Rootstown (4-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 2 (45%)
10/03 A #39 Kirtland (4-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 44 (1%)
10/10 A #528 Crestwood (1-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/17 H #422 Wickliffe (4-0) D6 R21, pick: W by 3 (57%)
10/24 A #455 Chagrin Falls (2-2) D5 R17, pick: W by 7 (68%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
9.83 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#12 seed in R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
50% (bubble if 5-5), 18% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.46 ( 4.63-22.24) 86% in, 47% home, 3% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Liberty (3-1) 14%
Lose: 7.61 ( 1.56-19.31) 36% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Garfield (3-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
(11%) 7W: 16.43 (14.57-19.31) 100% in, 93% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Liberty (3-1) 14%
(21%) 6W: 13.06 (10.93-16.44) 99% in, 33% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Liberty (3-1) 16%
(25%) 5W: 9.83 ( 7.45-13.92) 67% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Garfield (3-1) 14%
(22%) 4W: 6.90 ( 4.58-10.59) 6% in, proj. out (#10-out), Edison (Richmond) (3-1) 16%
(15%) 3W: 4.38 ( 2.51- 7.61) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 6%) 2W: 2.72 ( 1.56- 4.44) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(11%) WWLWWW: 16.38 (14.57-18.46) 100% in, 93% home, 8% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Liberty (3-1) 14%
(12%) LWLWWW: 13.01 (11.69-14.72) 99% in, 32% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Liberty (3-1) 16%
( 5%) LWLWLW: 9.68 ( 8.11-11.59) 71% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Garfield (3-1) 17%
( 9%) LLLWWW: 9.42 ( 7.45-11.95) 57% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), St Clairsville (3-1) 16%
( 6%) LLLWWL: 6.95 ( 5.29- 9.23) 5% in, proj. out (#11-out), Edison (Richmond) (3-1) 22%
( 8%) LLLWLW: 6.14 ( 4.58- 7.91) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Cardinal Mooney (2-2) 22%
( 8%) LLLWLL: 4.03 ( 2.51- 6.25) out
( 6%) LLLLLL: 2.72 ( 1.56- 4.44) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 93.8, #409, D5 #53), 50% (bubble if 5-5), 18% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 3 (1-2, 83.4, #476, D5 #66), 29% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (0-2, 81.2, #493, D5 #70), 26% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 92.6, #419, D5 #55), 47% (bubble if 5-5), 26% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 100.8, #351, D5 #40), 65% (bubble if 5-5), 41% home (maybe if 6-4), 16% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 6-4
Last season 101.6