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Rankings
#96 of 105 in Division 5
#23 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #99 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #86 in D5 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 H #393 Mariemont (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 34 (6%)
08/28 H #644 Miami Valley Christian (0-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 4 (57%)
09/04 A Covington Holy Cross KY (0-0) D6
09/11 H #565 Shroder (0-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 17 (16%)
09/18 A #453 Cincinnati Country Day (0-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 32 (2%)
09/25 H #345 Williamsburg (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 37 (1%)
10/02 A #550 Blanchester (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 22 (8%)
10/09 H #551 Bethel-Tate (0-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/16 A #698 Fayetteville (0-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/23 A #690 East Clinton (0-0) D5 R20, pick: W by 26 (96%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
5.62 Harbin points (divisor 97)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
15% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.66 ( 1.38-22.39) 53% in, 25% home, 7% bye, proj. #12 (#1-out), bye 13%
Lose: 4.86 ( 0.00-21.99) 12% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Preble Shawnee (0-0) 8%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 9W: 17.30 (11.74-21.99) 100% in, 97% home, 54% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#10), bye 54%
( 2%) 8W: 14.28 ( 9.17-21.08) 99% in, 76% home, 16% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 16%
( 5%) 7W: 11.77 ( 7.43-17.95) 87% in, 36% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Preble Shawnee (0-0) 7%
( 9%) 6W: 9.41 ( 5.13-15.44) 50% in, 7% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Preble Shawnee (0-0) 8%
(15%) 5W: 7.46 ( 3.13-12.87) 15% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Preble Shawnee (0-0) 13%
(21%) 4W: 5.62 ( 2.94-12.17) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(23%) 3W: 3.83 ( 1.61- 8.62) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(16%) 2W: 2.24 ( 0.80- 6.42) out, proj. out
( 6%) 1W: 0.86 ( 0.35- 3.34) out, proj. out
( 1%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Preble Shawnee (0-0) 8%
Williamsburg (0-0) 7%
Greeneview (0-0) 6%
Miami East (0-0) 6%
Most likely second round opponents
Preble Shawnee (0-0) 11%
Brookville (0-0) 10%
Carlisle (0-0) 9%
Greeneview (0-0) 8%
West Liberty-Salem (0-0) 7%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 113.3, #259, D5 #28), 76% (bubble if 5-5), 60% home (maybe if 6-4), 39% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #3 at 7-3
Last season 49.6