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Rankings
#100 of 106 in Division 5
#24 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #104 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #92 in D5 (-607 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 30-6 A #435 Mariemont (2-2) D5 R20, pick: L by 29 (9%), perf. rating 56
08/29 L 13-6 A #661 Miami Valley Christian (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 12 (73%), perf. rating 33
09/05 L 45-15 H Covington Holy Cross KY (4-0) D6
09/12 W 40-6 A #688 Lockland (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 4 (59%), perf. rating 79
09/19 H #510 Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 22 (8%)
09/26 A #242 Williamsburg (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 43 (1%)
10/02 H #567 Blanchester (1-3) D6 R24, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/10 A #540 Bethel-Tate (0-4) D4 R16, pick: L by 21 (8%)
10/17 H #705 Fayetteville (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/24 H #696 East Clinton (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 31 (98%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
2.16 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.04 ( 3.67-13.05) 4% in, proj. out (#9-out)
Lose: 2.31 ( 0.35-10.48) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 8.36 ( 6.59-11.64) 20% in, proj. out (#9-out)
( 7%) 5W: 5.71 ( 4.27- 9.68) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(24%) 4W: 3.67 ( 2.71- 8.22) out, proj. out
(65%) 3W: 2.16 ( 1.81- 5.04) out, proj. out
( 3%) 2W: 1.41 ( 0.75- 2.92) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLWWWW: 8.26 ( 6.59-10.08) 15% in, proj. out (#10-out), Miami East (3-1) 29%
( 2%) WLWLWW: 6.60 ( 4.83- 8.72) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Miami East (3-1) 33%
( 4%) WLLLWW: 5.34 ( 3.67- 6.85) out
( 4%) LLWWWW: 5.18 ( 4.27- 6.60) out
( 6%) LLLWWW: 3.57 ( 2.71- 5.44) out
(14%) LLWLWW: 3.47 ( 2.96- 5.34) out
(64%) LLLLWW: 2.16 ( 1.81- 4.43) out
( 3%) LLLLWL: 1.41 ( 1.05- 2.92) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 54.0, #634, D5 #100), 1% (must have at least 5-5 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (0-3, 40.5, #660, D5 #103), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 43.0, #655, D5 #102), 2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 49.7, #643, D5 #100), 8% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 50.1, #642, D5 #98), 16% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 53.2