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Rankings
#96 of 107 in Division 6
#22 of 27 in Region 24
Strength of schedule #101 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #95 in D6 (-710 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 40-0 H #491 Grove City Christian (3-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 27 (11%), perf. rating 19
08/29 W 13-6 H #634 Clermont Northeastern (1-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 12 (27%), perf. rating 62
09/05 L 35-0 A #518 Dayton Christian (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 20 (13%), perf. rating 27
09/12 L 35-15 H #590 Notre Dame (4-0) D7 R28, pick: L by 24 (8%), perf. rating 32
09/19 A #586 Summit Country Day (2-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 23 (8%)
09/26 H #705 Fayetteville (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 33 (98%)
10/03 A #510 Cincinnati Country Day (3-1) D7 R28, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/10 A #688 Lockland (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 13 (80%)
10/17 H #440 St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 34 (1%)
10/24 A #687 New Miami (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 12 (79%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
4.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R24 playoffs
Playoff chances now
8% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.75 ( 3.10-13.35) 45% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 20%
Lose: 4.05 ( 1.15-12.30) 5% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 18%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 5W: 6.25 ( 5.25-11.75) 61% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 19%
(54%) 4W: 4.40 ( 3.65- 8.90) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 23%
(28%) 3W: 3.00 ( 2.20- 6.30) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 8%) 2W: 1.90 ( 1.50- 4.00) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWLWWW: 7.90 ( 7.40- 9.55) 95% in, 9% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 18%
( 2%) LWWWLW: 7.25 ( 6.25- 9.15) 77% in, 4% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Dayton Christian (3-1) 14%
( 5%) WWLWLW: 5.75 ( 5.25- 8.35) 45% in, proj. out (#9-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 23%
(52%) LWLWLW: 4.05 ( 3.65- 6.75) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 23%
(12%) LWLLLW: 3.35 ( 2.60- 5.55) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) 100%
(15%) LWLWLL: 2.95 ( 2.20- 4.75) out
( 8%) LWLLLL: 1.90 ( 1.50- 4.00) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 41.5, #661, D6 #96), 8% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 36.5, #671, D6 #98), 13% (bubble if 5-5), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 42.2, #656, D6 #93), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 36.0, #674, D6 #99), 18% (bubble if 5-5), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 42.4, #665, D6 #96), 29% (bubble if 5-5), 13% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 48.5