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Region 28 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#95 of 107 in Division 7
#22 of 27 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #89 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #105 in D7 (-935 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 21-0 H #633 Finneytown (1-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 15 (25%), perf. rating 21
08/29 L 14-6 A #668 Gamble Montessori (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 28
09/05 L 21-0 A #586 Summit Country Day (2-2) D6 R24, pick: L by 29 (5%), perf. rating 35
09/12 L 40-6 H #634 Clermont Northeastern (1-3) D5 R20, pick: L by 4 (41%), perf. rating 1
09/19 A #705 Fayetteville (0-4) D7 R28, pick: W by 21 (91%)
09/26 H #558 Shroder (1-3) D4 R16, pick: L by 33 (2%)
10/02 A #563 Belmont (2-2) D2 R8, pick: L by 35 (1%)
10/10 H #661 Miami Valley Christian (1-3) D6 R24, pick: L by 13 (20%)
10/17 H #687 New Miami (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 1 (53%)
10/25 A #440 St Bernard-Elmwood Pl. (3-1) D6 R24, pick: L by 43 (1%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.45 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 1.45 ( 0.35- 8.60) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Lose: 0.00 ( 0.00- 6.60) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 4W: 5.35 ( 4.35- 7.50) 17% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(16%) 3W: 3.05 ( 2.80- 6.65) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(38%) 2W: 1.45 ( 1.45- 5.10) out, proj. out
(39%) 1W: 0.35 ( 0.35- 3.90) out, proj. out
( 6%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(14%) WLLWWL: 3.05 ( 3.00- 4.35) out
( 5%) WLLWLL: 1.90 ( 1.55- 3.15) out
(31%) WLLLWL: 1.45 ( 1.45- 3.15) out
( 2%) LLLLWL: 1.10 ( 1.10- 1.85) out
(36%) WLLLLL: 0.35 ( 0.35- 1.65) out
( 6%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 26.1, #688, D7 #95), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (0-3, 34.0, #674, D7 #86), 4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (0-2, 35.3, #674, D7 #86), 8% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (0-1, 44.4, #660, D7 #80), 26% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 49.2, #644, D7 #75), 40% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 50.3