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Rankings
#39 of 107 in Division 7
#12 of 27 in Region 28
Strength of schedule #71 in D7 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #42 in D7 (-10 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 7-6 H #586 Summit Country Day (2-2) D6 R24, pick: W by 35 (95%), perf. rating 64
08/29 L 56-49 A #567 Blanchester (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 5 (60%), perf. rating 61
09/05 W 46-0 H Irvington Prep IN (0-3) D6
09/12 W 24-22 A #443 Cincinnati College Prep (2-2) D7 R28, pick: L by 20 (12%), perf. rating 92
09/19 A #634 Clermont Northeastern (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 22 (92%)
09/26 H #687 New Miami (2-2) D7 R28, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/03 H #661 Miami Valley Christian (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 32 (98%)
10/10 A #655 Norwood (0-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/17 H #421 North College Hill (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 12 (21%)
10/24 A #618 Clark Montessori (1-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 20 (91%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
14.07 Harbin points (divisor 97)
#6 seed in R28 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 95% home (maybe if 6-4), 30% bye (likely needs 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.18 ( 8.29-22.10) 100% in, 97% home, 31% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#12), bye 31%
Lose: 12.08 ( 6.90-19.44) 99% in, 74% home, 10% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Cedarville (2-2) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
(21%) 9W: 18.65 (15.30-22.10) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 98%
(57%) 8W: 14.07 (11.03-19.44) 100% in, 99% home, 15% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Cedarville (2-2) 15%
(17%) 7W: 12.49 ( 9.91-17.90) 100% in, 89% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#11), Cedarville (2-2) 19%
( 3%) 6W: 10.96 ( 8.38-14.15) 100% in, 55% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Notre Dame (4-0) 18%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(21%) WWWWWW: 18.65 (15.30-22.10) 100% home, 98% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 98%
( 2%) WWWWWL: 16.86 (13.82-19.28) 100% home, 73% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 73%
(54%) WWWWLW: 14.02 (11.03-16.91) 100% in, 99% home, 11% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#10), Cedarville (2-2) 16%
( 2%) WWWLLW: 12.85 (10.69-15.07) 100% in, 91% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Cedarville (2-2) 19%
( 9%) WWWWLL: 12.59 (10.07-15.02) 100% in, 90% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#10), Cedarville (2-2) 18%
( 4%) LWWWLW: 12.28 ( 9.91-14.60) 100% in, 87% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Cedarville (2-2) 20%
( 1%) WWLWLW: 12.13 ( 9.91-14.91) 100% in, 84% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#10), Cedarville (2-2) 20%
( 1%) LWWWLL: 10.70 ( 8.43-12.87) 100% in, 46% home, proj. #9 (#6-#11), Notre Dame (4-0) 19%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 78.8, #510, D7 #39), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 6-4), 30% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. #6 at 8-2
Week 3 (2-1, 74.9, #534, D7 #46), 96% (bubble if 5-5), 43% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 78.5, #519, D7 #42), 93% (bubble if 4-6), 53% home (maybe if 7-3), 13% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #9 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 83.5, #488, D7 #33), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 75% home (maybe if 7-3), 29% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #5 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 98.3, #369, D7 #23), 98% (bubble if 5-5), 87% home (maybe if 6-4), 46% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #3 at 9-1
Last season 98.3