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Rankings
#61 of 106 in Division 5
#15 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #56 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #63 in D5 (-228 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 30-6 H #634 Clermont Northeastern (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 29 (91%), perf. rating 88
08/29 W 36-0 A #655 Norwood (0-4) D5 R20, pick: W by 31 (94%), perf. rating 99
09/05 L 32-14 H #242 Williamsburg (4-0) D5 R20, pick: L by 24 (9%), perf. rating 88
09/12 L 20-14 A #357 Taylor (2-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 25 (7%), perf. rating 95
09/19 A #80 Indian Hill (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 40 (1%)
09/26 H #221 Wyoming (3-1) D4 R16, pick: L by 25 (6%)
10/03 A #394 Deer Park (4-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 9 (28%)
10/10 H #445 Reading (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/17 H #633 Finneytown (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/24 A #441 Madeira (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 1 (53%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
4.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
16% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (likely needs 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 12.15 ( 8.05-19.15) 87% in, 49% home, 7% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out)
Lose: 5.90 ( 1.65-16.35) 15% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Miami East (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 14.15 (12.70-18.25) 100% in, 90% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Purcell Marian (2-2) 15%
(15%) 6W: 9.85 ( 8.50-14.40) 75% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Miami East (3-1) 14%
(30%) 5W: 6.90 ( 5.50-12.05) 8% in, proj. out (#9-out), Miami East (3-1) 20%
(32%) 4W: 4.90 ( 3.70-10.20) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(19%) 3W: 3.55 ( 2.40- 6.95) out, proj. out
( 1%) 2W: 2.70 ( 1.65- 4.05) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWWWW: 14.10 (12.70-16.35) 100% in, 89% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Purcell Marian (2-2) 16%
(13%) LLWWWW: 9.75 ( 8.50-12.65) 72% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Miami East (3-1) 15%
( 7%) LLWWWL: 7.80 ( 6.60-10.45) 8% in, proj. out (#9-out), Miami East (3-1) 25%
(18%) LLLWWW: 6.40 ( 5.50- 9.05) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Miami East (3-1) 25%
(11%) LLLLWW: 4.95 ( 3.75- 7.20) out
(17%) LLLWWL: 4.55 ( 3.70- 6.80) out
(18%) LLLLWL: 3.55 ( 2.40- 5.75) out
( 1%) LLLLLL: 2.70 ( 1.65- 4.05) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 89.7, #435, D5 #61), 16% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (2-1, 82.8, #485, D5 #69), 10% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (2-0, 83.4, #481, D5 #69), 18% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (1-0, 82.7, #493, D5 #74), 27% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 82.3, #503, D5 #74), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 12% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 78.6