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Rankings
#38 of 105 in Division 5
#6 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #55 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #31 in D5 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 33-0 A #602 Clermont Northeastern (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 34 (94%), perf. rating 109
08/28 W 49-6 H #662 Norwood (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 46 (99%), perf. rating 95
09/04 L 27-14 A #212 Williamsburg (3-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 15 (20%), perf. rating 103
09/11 W 17-7 H #363 Taylor (1-3) D4 R16, pick: L by 11 (26%), perf. rating 113
09/18 H #94 Indian Hill (2-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 29 (3%)
09/25 A #99 Wyoming (4-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 31 (2%)
10/02 H #337 Deer Park (4-0) D6 R24, pick: W by 3 (57%)
10/09 A #533 Reading (1-3) D4 R16, pick: W by 26 (96%)
10/16 A #663 Finneytown (0-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 45 (99%)
10/23 H #378 Madeira (3-1) D5 R20, pick: W by 8 (70%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
10.17 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#8 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
79% (likely needs 6-4), 48% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (likely needs 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.83 ( 9.52-23.74) 99% in, 96% home, 52% bye, proj. #4 (#1-out), bye 52%
Lose: 10.63 ( 4.22-20.77) 78% in, 47% home, 4% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), Arcanum (3-1) 10%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 8W: 17.79 (15.87-20.77) 100% home, 81% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 81%
(38%) 7W: 13.45 (11.68-18.45) 100% in, 96% home, 6% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Arcanum (3-1) 10%
(37%) 6W: 10.17 ( 8.41-14.82) 92% in, 21% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), Bishop Fenwick (2-2) 10%
(18%) 5W: 7.40 ( 5.68-12.05) 12% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Greeneview (3-1) 13%
( 2%) 4W: 5.94 ( 4.22- 8.87) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) LWWWWW: 18.35 (16.58-20.77) 100% home, 90% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#6), bye 90%
( 2%) WLWWWW: 17.29 (15.87-19.05) 100% home, 72% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 72%
(36%) LLWWWW: 13.40 (11.68-15.52) 100% in, 96% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#2-#11), Arcanum (3-1) 10%
( 1%) LLWLWW: 11.94 (10.23-13.61) 100% in, 67% home, 2% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Preble Shawnee (3-1) 12%
(14%) LLWWWL: 10.48 ( 8.76-12.80) 92% in, 22% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Arcanum (3-1) 10%
(22%) LLLWWW: 9.82 ( 8.41-12.04) 92% in, 17% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Bishop Fenwick (2-2) 11%
(15%) LLLWWL: 7.35 ( 5.68- 9.67) 6% in, proj. out (#9-out), Greeneview (3-1) 17%
( 2%) LLLLWL: 5.89 ( 4.22- 7.96) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Carlisle (2-2) 100%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 104.3, #332, D5 #38), 79% (likely needs 6-4), 48% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 92.8, #414, D5 #54), 25% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 94.9, #399, D5 #51), 44% (bubble if 5-5), 24% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 97.8, #385, D5 #52), 67% (bubble if 5-5), 43% home (maybe if 6-4), 18% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 96.9, #393, D5 #53), 59% (bubble if 5-5), 37% home (maybe if 6-4), 16% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Last season 103.6