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Rankings
#48 of 106 in Division 5
#10 of 26 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #49 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #44 in D5 (-100 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 33-0 A #570 Clermont Northeastern (2-5) D5 R20, pick: W by 34 (94%), perf. rating 118
08/28 W 49-6 H #645 Norwood (1-6) D4 R16, pick: W by 46 (99%), perf. rating 102
09/04 L 27-14 A #235 Williamsburg (6-1) D5 R20, pick: L by 15 (20%), perf. rating 100
09/11 W 17-7 H #404 Taylor (1-6) D4 R16, pick: L by 11 (26%), perf. rating 107
09/18 L 48-7 H #102 Indian Hill (5-2) D3 R12, pick: L by 29 (3%), perf. rating 76
09/25 L 45-10 A #118 Wyoming (7-0) D4 R16, pick: L by 29 (3%), perf. rating 86
10/02 L 17-0 H #256 Deer Park (7-0) D6 R24, pick: L by 5 (37%), perf. rating 87
10/09 A #466 Reading (3-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/16 A #655 Finneytown (0-6) D6 R24, pick: W by 39 (99%)
10/23 H #388 Madeira (4-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 2 (55%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
7.70 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
43% (likely needs 6-4), 2% home
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.72 ( 6.09-11.64) 57% in, 2% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Waynesville (5-2) 21%
Lose: 5.89 ( 4.53- 9.57) 2% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
(43%) 6W: 10.17 ( 9.21-11.64) 97% in, 4% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), Waynesville (5-2) 21%
(41%) 5W: 7.70 ( 6.44-10.28) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out)
(16%) 4W: 5.44 ( 4.53- 8.26) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(43%) WWW: 10.17 ( 9.21-11.64) 97% in, 4% home, proj. #10 (#8-out), Waynesville (5-2) 21%
(10%) LWW: 8.26 ( 7.35- 9.57) 6% in, proj. out (#10-out), Bishop Fenwick (4-3) 26%
(30%) WWL: 7.35 ( 6.44- 9.17) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Arcanum (6-1) 33%
(15%) LWL: 5.44 ( 4.53- 7.15) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (3-4, 96.5, #385, D5 #48), 43% (likely needs 6-4), 2% home, proj. out at 5-5
Week 6 (3-3, 102.4, #345, D5 #38), 79% (likely needs 6-4), 39% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 5 (3-2, 104.2, #333, D5 #38), 82% (likely needs 6-4), 50% home (likely needs 7-3), 4% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 4 (3-1, 104.3, #332, D5 #38), 79% (likely needs 6-4), 48% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (likely needs 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 92.8, #414, D5 #54), 25% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home (likely needs 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 94.9, #399, D5 #51), 44% (bubble if 5-5), 24% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 97.8, #385, D5 #52), 67% (bubble if 5-5), 43% home (maybe if 6-4), 18% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 96.9, #393, D5 #53), 59% (bubble if 5-5), 37% home (maybe if 6-4), 16% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Last season 103.6