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Rankings
#24 of 106 in Division 5
#4 of 25 in Region 20
Strength of schedule #80 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #15 in D5 (+220 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 28-7 A #445 Reading (0-4) D4 R16, pick: L by 11 (31%), perf. rating 120
08/29 W 28-12 H #379 New Richmond (2-2) D4 R16, pick: W by 11 (71%), perf. rating 121
09/05 W 32-14 A #435 Mariemont (2-2) D5 R20, pick: W by 24 (91%), perf. rating 118
09/12 W 26-7 H #346 Hillsboro (3-1) D3 R12, pick: W by 4 (59%), perf. rating 130
09/19 H #571 McClain (3-1) D4 R16, pick: W by 37 (99%)
09/26 H #634 Clermont Northeastern (1-3) D5 R20, pick: W by 43 (99%)
10/03 A #210 Roger Bacon (2-2) D4 R16, pick: L by 6 (35%)
10/10 H #567 Blanchester (1-3) D6 R24, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/17 A #696 East Clinton (0-4) D6 R24, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/24 A #540 Bethel-Tate (0-4) D4 R16, pick: W by 33 (99%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
18.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#3 seed in R20 playoffs
Playoff chances now
appears locked in and likely home, 90% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 18.90 (12.60-25.85) 100% home, 90% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 90%
Lose: 16.45 (13.30-22.05) 100% in, 99% home, 55% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#10), bye 55%
Based on eventual number of wins
(33%) 10W: 21.65 (17.40-25.85) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(61%) 9W: 18.25 (14.85-24.10) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 88%
( 5%) 8W: 16.30 (13.10-20.20) 100% in, 99% home, 55% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#10), bye 55%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(33%) WWWWWW: 21.65 (17.40-25.85) 100% home, 99% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 99%
(60%) WWLWWW: 18.25 (14.85-22.20) 100% home, 88% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 88%
( 1%) WWLLWW: 16.15 (13.65-19.25) 100% home, 50% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#8), bye 50%
( 2%) WWLWWL: 16.05 (13.10-19.55) 100% home, 53% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 53%
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 116.7, #242, D5 #24), appears locked in and likely home, 90% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 3 (3-0, 111.9, #276, D5 #27), likely in, 98% home, 62% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #2 at 10-0
Week 2 (2-0, 111.7, #282, D5 #29), likely in, 97% home (maybe if 7-3), 68% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #2 at 10-0
Week 1 (1-0, 107.8, #305, D5 #32), 95% (bubble if 6-4), 86% home (maybe if 7-3), 60% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 93.6, #419, D5 #54), 74% (bubble if 5-5), 54% home (maybe if 7-3), 27% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #7 at 7-3
Last season 90.7