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Rankings
#33 of 107 in Division 3
#9 of 28 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #37 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #51 in D3 (-162 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 13-9 A #157 Fremont Ross (2-2) D2 R6, pick: L by 3 (44%), perf. rating 127
08/29 W 45-12 H #401 Mansfield Senior (0-4) D3 R10, pick: W by 14 (76%), perf. rating 142
09/05 L 35-30 A #89 Buckeye (4-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 17 (17%), perf. rating 137
09/12 L 81-7 A #4 Bishop Watterson (4-0) D3 R11, pick: L by 37 (1%), perf. rating 125
09/19 H #281 Huron (2-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 21 (91%)
09/26 A #386 Sandusky (1-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 27 (96%)
10/03 A #425 Norwalk (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/10 H #256 Bellevue (3-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 18 (88%)
10/17 H #362 Clyde (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 28 (97%)
10/24 H #102 Perkins (1-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 7 (32%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
11.48 Harbin points (divisor 99)
#12 seed in R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
57% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 11.84 ( 2.31-19.51) 61% in, 13% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#4-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 12%
Lose: 8.79 ( 1.11-16.94) 18% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Revere (3-0) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
(28%) 7W: 15.01 (12.29-19.51) 99% in, 39% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Holy Name (3-1) 13%
(48%) 6W: 11.48 ( 8.71-16.94) 59% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#5-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 14%
(18%) 5W: 8.91 ( 6.19-13.81) 8% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Revere (3-0) 18%
( 5%) 4W: 6.69 ( 3.87-10.89) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 1%) 3W: 4.50 ( 2.76- 8.47) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(28%) WWWWWW: 15.01 (12.29-19.51) 99% in, 39% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Holy Name (3-1) 13%
( 3%) WWWLWW: 11.84 ( 9.87-15.32) 68% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), Copley (3-1) 15%
(43%) WWWWWL: 11.38 ( 8.71-16.18) 57% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 15%
( 2%) WWWWLL: 9.85 ( 7.20-12.50) 18% in, proj. out (#10-out), Copley (3-1) 17%
( 4%) LWWWWL: 9.22 ( 7.09-12.85) 9% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Revere (3-0) 19%
( 2%) WLWWWL: 9.02 ( 6.34-12.55) 11% in, proj. out (#10-out), Shawnee (Lima) (3-1) 32%
( 8%) WWWLWL: 8.31 ( 6.19-11.14) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), Copley (3-1) 15%
( 2%) LWWLWL: 6.24 ( 5.03- 9.02) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 130.9, #156, D3 #33), 57% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 3 (1-2, 134.3, #135, D3 #25), 78% (bubble if 5-5), 35% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 2 (1-1, 132.9, #132, D3 #24), 66% (bubble if 5-5), 37% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 122.0, #196, D3 #39), 47% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 6-4), 7% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 123.0, #193, D3 #41), 41% (bubble if 5-5), 24% home (maybe if 6-4), 8% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Last season 114.2