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Rankings
#43 of 104 in Division 3
#12 of 26 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #43 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #17 in D3 (+137 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 22-21 H #179 Fremont Ross (1-2) D2 R6, later won by forfeit
08/28 W 35-7 A #494 Mansfield Senior (0-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 20 (84%), perf. rating 125
09/04 L 49-28 H #65 Ontario (3-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 19 (14%), perf. rating 114
09/11 H #204 Lima Senior (2-1) D2 R8, pick: L by 1 (48%)
09/18 A #432 Huron (0-3) D6 R22, pick: W by 25 (94%)
09/25 H #420 Sandusky (0-3) D2 R6, pick: W by 26 (95%)
10/02 H #518 Norwalk (0-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 34 (99%)
10/09 A #82 Bellevue (2-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 23 (7%)
10/16 A #272 Clyde (1-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 4 (60%)
10/23 A #53 Perkins (3-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 30 (2%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
10.40 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
57% (bubble if 6-4), 26% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.45 ( 7.50-26.35) 94% in, 51% home, 8% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), Buchtel (1-2) 11%
Lose: 7.95 ( 2.30-20.75) 24% in, 3% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Cloverleaf (2-1) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 9W: 23.30 (19.50-26.35) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 96%
( 8%) 8W: 18.55 (14.20-23.45) 100% in, 97% home, 30% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#11), bye 30%
(27%) 7W: 14.55 ( 9.55-20.10) 99% in, 54% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Buchtel (1-2) 12%
(32%) 6W: 10.40 ( 6.10-19.15) 58% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#4-out), Cloverleaf (2-1) 11%
(23%) 5W: 7.10 ( 3.85-14.30) 11% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out), St Marys Memorial (2-1) 13%
( 7%) 4W: 6.00 ( 2.75-11.45) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 1%) 3W: 5.00 ( 2.30- 9.80) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWWW: 23.30 (19.50-26.35) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 96%
( 6%) WWWWWWL: 18.20 (14.20-22.20) 100% in, 96% home, 24% bye, proj. #6 (#1-#11), bye 24%
(22%) WWWWLWL: 14.55 (11.20-19.30) 99% in, 55% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-out), Buchtel (1-2) 12%
(11%) WWWWLLL: 11.90 ( 8.50-15.75) 84% in, 10% home, proj. #11 (#5-out), Buchtel (1-2) 11%
(18%) LWWWLWL: 9.40 ( 6.10-14.50) 38% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Cloverleaf (2-1) 13%
(18%) LWWWLLL: 6.95 ( 3.85-11.15) 3% in, proj. out (#10-out), St Marys Memorial (2-1) 13%
( 3%) LLWWLLL: 6.15 ( 3.45-10.40) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Celina (3-0) 29%
( 1%) LLLWLLL: 5.00 ( 2.30- 7.25) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (2-1, 119.2, #229, D3 #43), 57% (bubble if 6-4), 26% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 6-4
Week 2 (2-0, 124.1, #189, D3 #32), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 58% home (maybe if 6-4), 21% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #5 at 7-3
Week 1 (0-1, 116.8, #234, D3 #46), 46% (bubble if 5-5), 22% home (maybe if 6-4), 5% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 117.4, #222, D3 #44), 59% (bubble if 5-5), 40% home (maybe if 6-4), 17% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 6-4
Last season 119.2