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Rankings
#11 of 101 in Division 4
#4 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #17 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #13 in D4 (+200 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 42-0 H #302 Clyde (1-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 169
08/28 W 42-21 A #397 Wauseon (0-2) D4 R14, pick: W by 32 (95%), perf. rating 128
09/04 A #20 Shelby (2-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 28 (6%)
09/11 A #497 Norwalk (0-2) D3 R10, pick: W by 40 (99%)
09/18 H #52 Perkins (2-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 13 (21%)
09/25 H #342 Edison (Milan) (0-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 31 (98%)
10/02 A #395 Huron (0-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 33 (98%)
10/09 H #188 Tiffin Columbian (2-0) D3 R10, pick: W by 17 (87%)
10/16 H #215 Port Clinton (2-0) D5 R18, pick: W by 20 (91%)
10/23 A #219 Vermilion (1-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 17 (87%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
5.51 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#5 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in, 89% home (maybe if 6-4), 37% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.52 ( 3.58- 7.61) 100% in, 99% home, 87% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#9), bye 87%
Lose: 5.42 ( 1.66- 6.72) 99% in, 89% home, 34% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 34%
Based on eventual number of wins
(19%) 9W: 6.46 ( 6.08- 6.74) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 96%
(40%) 8W: 5.51 ( 5.09- 6.12) 100% home, 40% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 40%
(23%) 7W: 4.66 ( 4.30- 5.28) 100% in, 96% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#11), Otsego (2-0) 11%
(11%) 6W: 3.84 ( 3.50- 4.51) 100% in, 58% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Otsego (2-0) 14%
( 4%) 5W: 3.06 ( 2.75- 3.64) 90% in, 8% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Buckeye (0-2) 16%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(16%) LWWWWWWW: 6.46 ( 6.14- 6.72) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 96%
(34%) LWLWWWWW: 5.50 ( 5.09- 5.79) 100% home, 36% bye, proj. #5 (#2-#8), bye 36%
( 6%) LWLWWWLW: 4.68 ( 4.46- 5.05) 100% in, 96% home, 3% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Clyde (1-1) 10%
( 7%) LWLWWWWL: 4.67 ( 4.37- 4.92) 100% in, 96% home, 5% bye, proj. #6 (#3-#10), Otsego (2-0) 12%
( 7%) LWLWWLWW: 4.58 ( 4.30- 4.83) 100% in, 96% home, 3% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Firelands (1-1) 12%
( 3%) LWLWWWLL: 3.89 ( 3.60- 4.08) 100% in, 62% home, proj. #8 (#5-#12), Otsego (2-0) 13%
( 4%) LWLWWLWL: 3.77 ( 3.56- 3.98) 100% in, 48% home, proj. #9 (#5-#12), Benjamin Logan (1-1) 12%
( 3%) LWLWWLLL: 2.99 ( 2.75- 3.21) 87% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Buckeye (0-2) 18%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (2-0, 139.2, #96, D4 #11), 98% (bubble if 4-6), 89% home (maybe if 6-4), 47% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 8-2
Week 1 (1-0, 135.2, #122, D4 #9), 90% (bubble if 5-5), 70% home (maybe if 6-4), 27% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #4 at 8-2
Week 0 (0-0, 114.2, #251, D4 #31), 57% (bubble if 4-6), 36% home (maybe if 6-4), 13% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 5-5
Last season 118.9