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Rankings
#40 of 105 in Division 4
#11 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #17 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #23 in D4 (+68 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 33-23 A #362 Clyde (0-4) D4 R14, pick: L by 24 (14%), perf. rating 118
08/29 W 42-14 H #382 Wauseon (0-4) D4 R14, pick: W by 24 (89%), perf. rating 138
09/05 L 49-6 H #28 Shelby (4-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 33 (3%), perf. rating 98
09/12 W 19-0 H #425 Norwalk (1-3) D3 R10, pick: W by 20 (88%), perf. rating 118
09/19 A #102 Perkins (1-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 25 (6%)
09/26 A #170 Edison (Milan) (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 15 (17%)
10/03 H #281 Huron (2-2) D6 R22, pick: W by 5 (63%)
10/10 A #156 Tiffin Columbian (1-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 18 (12%)
10/17 A #331 Port Clinton (3-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 8 (70%)
10/24 H #285 Vermilion (3-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 6 (65%)
Regular season projections
5-5 record
9.65 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#12 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
59% (bubble if 5-5), 19% home (likely needs 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.00 ( 6.70-25.35) 95% in, 70% home, 31% bye, proj. #6 (#2-out), bye 33%
Lose: 10.10 ( 2.70-21.60) 57% in, 16% home, 3% bye, proj. #12 (#2-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 4%) 8W: 19.75 (16.95-21.95) 100% home, 68% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 68%
(12%) 7W: 16.15 (12.80-19.75) 100% in, 83% home, 6% bye, proj. #7 (#2-#12), Cloverleaf (3-1) 13%
(26%) 6W: 12.65 ( 9.55-16.40) 95% in, 14% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 16%
(28%) 5W: 9.65 ( 6.95-13.45) 57% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Perkins (1-3) 17%
(20%) 4W: 6.95 ( 4.25-10.20) 8% in, proj. out (#10-out), Perkins (1-3) 21%
( 9%) 3W: 4.65 ( 2.70- 7.45) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 3%) LWWWWW: 19.75 (17.10-21.60) 100% home, 68% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 68%
(17%) LLWLWW: 12.55 (10.25-15.65) 95% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Clear Fork (3-1) 16%
( 9%) LLLLWW: 10.40 ( 7.80-12.90) 73% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Perkins (1-3) 17%
( 7%) LLWLLW: 9.30 ( 7.05-12.70) 53% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Perkins (1-3) 21%
( 8%) LLWLWL: 8.75 ( 6.95-11.75) 39% in, proj. out (#10-out), Vermilion (3-1) 18%
( 8%) LLLLWL: 7.05 ( 5.35- 9.70) 9% in, proj. out (#10-out), Bath (3-1) 18%
( 6%) LLWLLL: 6.00 ( 4.25- 9.20) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Napoleon (2-2) 56%
( 9%) LLLLLL: 4.65 ( 2.70- 7.45) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 114.8, #256, D4 #40), 59% (bubble if 5-5), 19% home (likely needs 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #12 at 5-5
Week 3 (2-1, 114.5, #261, D4 #41), 42% (bubble if 5-5), 18% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 116.2, #248, D4 #33), 47% (bubble if 5-5), 22% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 118.5, #224, D4 #28), 60% (bubble if 5-5), 31% home (maybe if 6-4), 9% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 104.9, #315, D4 #48), 24% (bubble if 5-5), 11% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 102.1