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Rankings
#24 of 107 in Division 6
#9 of 26 in Region 22
Strength of schedule #6 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #42 in D6 (-62 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 52-46 H #176 Oak Harbor (4-0) D5 R18, pick: L by 22 (16%), perf. rating 115
08/29 W 48-12 A #619 Elmwood (0-4) D6 R22, pick: W by 45 (99%), perf. rating 113
09/05 L 42-32 H #202 Genoa Area (3-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 8 (67%), perf. rating 105
09/12 W 56-7 H #665 Ridgedale (1-3) D7 R26, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 100
09/19 A #156 Tiffin Columbian (1-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 21 (9%)
09/26 H #331 Port Clinton (3-1) D5 R18, pick: W by 9 (72%)
10/03 A #256 Bellevue (3-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 5 (37%)
10/10 H #285 Vermilion (3-1) D4 R14, pick: W by 3 (57%)
10/17 A #102 Perkins (1-3) D4 R14, pick: L by 27 (4%)
10/24 A #170 Edison (Milan) (3-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 18 (12%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
7.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R22 playoffs
Playoff chances now
32% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 13.15 ( 4.05-23.20) 76% in, 41% home, 14% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), bye 18%
Lose: 7.15 ( 1.10-20.50) 27% in, 7% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) 12%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 7W: 18.15 (15.00-20.50) 100% in, 99% home, 59% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#9), bye 59%
( 9%) 6W: 14.70 (11.40-17.30) 100% in, 70% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#3-#12), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) 13%
(21%) 5W: 11.00 ( 7.15-13.85) 76% in, 3% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) 12%
(27%) 4W: 7.75 ( 5.15-11.45) 11% in, proj. out (#9-out), Archbold (3-1) 15%
(25%) 3W: 4.60 ( 2.90- 7.40) out, proj. out
(14%) 2W: 1.85 ( 1.10- 4.05) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LWWWWW: 18.30 (16.20-20.50) 100% home, 67% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#7), bye 67%
( 5%) LWWWLW: 15.00 (12.45-17.10) 100% in, 76% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) 14%
(12%) LWWWLL: 10.85 ( 8.25-13.40) 73% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Archbold (3-1) 14%
(14%) LWLWLL: 7.95 ( 5.55-10.60) 14% in, proj. out (#10-out), Archbold (3-1) 14%
( 6%) LWWLLL: 7.15 ( 5.40-10.75) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out), W. Reserve (Collins) (3-1) 25%
( 6%) LLLWLL: 4.85 ( 3.30- 7.40) out
(15%) LWLLLL: 4.50 ( 2.90- 6.85) out
(14%) LLLLLL: 1.85 ( 1.10- 4.05) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 111.4, #281, D6 #24), 32% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 6-4), 2% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 113.1, #267, D6 #18), 33% (likely needs 5-5), 15% home (likely needs 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 119.1, #228, D6 #13), 63% (bubble if 4-6), 43% home (maybe if 5-5), 22% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #9 at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 124.2, #179, D6 #8), 78% (bubble if 4-6), 59% home (maybe if 6-4), 33% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #4 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 119.6, #214, D6 #11), 65% (bubble if 5-5), 44% home (maybe if 6-4), 23% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #6 at 6-4
Last season 116.8