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Rankings
#77 of 107 in Division 3
#20 of 28 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #12 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #64 in D3 (-280 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 38-7 H #53 Hilliard Davidson (3-1) D1 R2, pick: L by 32 (7%), perf. rating 102
08/29 L 45-12 A #156 Tiffin Columbian (1-3) D3 R10, pick: L by 14 (24%), perf. rating 84
09/05 L 47-7 A #67 Villa Angela-St Joseph (2-1) D3 R9, pick: L by 36 (2%), perf. rating 90
09/12 L 45-6 H #119 West Holmes (3-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 30 (4%), perf. rating 78
09/19 H #207 New Philadelphia (1-3) D3 R11, pick: L by 23 (8%)
09/26 A #133 Lexington (3-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 33 (2%)
10/03 H #74 Ashland (4-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 36 (1%)
10/10 A #446 Wooster (0-4) D2 R7, pick: W by 7 (68%)
10/17 A #274 GlenOak (1-3) D1 R1, pick: L by 18 (12%)
10/24 H #338 Madison (Mansfield) (2-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 7 (32%)
Regular season projections
1-9 record
0.60 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 3.97 ( 1.16-14.71) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Lose: 0.60 ( 0.00-12.81) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 4W: 6.34 ( 5.18-12.81) 2% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
( 9%) 3W: 3.97 ( 2.96- 8.77) out, proj. out
(26%) 2W: 2.26 ( 1.76- 7.21) out, proj. out
(38%) 1W: 0.60 ( 0.60- 5.55) out, proj. out
(25%) 0W: 0.00 ( 0.00- nan) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLLWWW: 5.73 ( 5.18- 8.41) out
( 2%) WLLWLW: 4.53 ( 3.97- 7.26) out
( 6%) LLLWWW: 3.47 ( 3.47- 6.29) out
(17%) LLLWLW: 2.26 ( 2.26- 5.04) out
( 4%) LLLWWL: 1.81 ( 1.81- 3.02) out
( 6%) LLLLLW: 1.66 ( 1.66- 2.82) out
(29%) LLLWLL: 0.60 ( 0.60- 2.37) out
(25%) LLLLLL: 0.00 out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (0-4, 95.4, #401, D3 #77), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 3 (0-3, 99.6, #372, D3 #75), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 100.5, #361, D3 #68), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 109.8, #292, D3 #61), 17% (bubble if 5-5), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 111.2, #266, D3 #53), 20% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 100.1