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Rankings
#78 of 106 in Division 5
#19 of 26 in Region 18
Strength of schedule #53 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #77 in D5 (-360 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 31-7 A #241 Ridgewood (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 32 (7%), perf. rating 83
08/29 W 29-23 H #561 Tuscarawas Valley (1-3) D5 R17, pick: W by 5 (60%), perf. rating 77
09/05 L 24-7 A #392 Highland (Marengo) (2-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 9 (31%), perf. rating 74
09/12 L 48-0 H #301 John Glenn (3-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 23 (9%), perf. rating 45
09/19 H #474 Maysville (2-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 6 (35%)
09/26 A #148 New Lexington (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 41 (1%)
10/03 H #414 Meadowbrook (1-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 17 (14%)
10/10 A #410 Crooksville (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 21 (8%)
10/17 H #404 West Muskingum (1-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 19 (11%)
10/24 A #648 River View (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 23 (93%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R18 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.60 ( 2.45-15.95) 3% in, 1% home, proj. out (#7-out)
Lose: 1.80 ( 0.90-12.95) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 10.55 ( 9.60-13.90) 46% in, proj. out (#10-out)
( 5%) 5W: 7.85 ( 6.65-11.55) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(14%) 4W: 5.65 ( 4.15- 9.60) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(29%) 3W: 3.65 ( 2.30- 7.90) out, proj. out
(44%) 2W: 1.80 ( 1.35- 6.00) out, proj. out
( 6%) 1W: 1.35 ( 0.90- 2.20) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLWWWW: 10.50 ( 9.60-12.10) 42% in, proj. out (#10-out), Liberty-Benton (4-0) 45%
( 4%) WLLLWW: 5.65 ( 4.75- 7.35) out
( 4%) WLWLLW: 5.10 ( 4.30- 6.80) out
( 5%) LLLLWW: 3.65 ( 2.75- 5.75) out
(16%) WLLLLW: 3.35 ( 2.90- 5.55) out
( 4%) LLWLLW: 3.25 ( 2.30- 5.10) out
(41%) LLLLLW: 1.80 ( 1.35- 3.15) out
( 6%) LLLLLL: 1.35 ( 0.90- 2.20) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 74.4, #534, D5 #78), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 80.6, #495, D5 #72), 4% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 85.7, #461, D5 #64), 20% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 85.3, #469, D5 #69), 16% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 84.3, #494, D5 #70), 20% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 79.8