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Rankings
#41 of 102 in Division 4
#12 of 26 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #25 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #38 in D4 (-131 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 34-19 H #99 Barnesville (7-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 29 (9%), perf. rating 115
08/28 W 41-13 A #611 Cambridge (0-7) D4 R15, pick: W by 31 (94%), perf. rating 100
09/04 L 29-14 H #80 New Lexington (7-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 33 (3%), perf. rating 118
09/11 W 55-0 A #648 River View (0-7) D5 R19, pick: W by 47 (99%), perf. rating 106
09/18 W 31-0 A #488 Meadowbrook (2-5) D5 R19, pick: W by 12 (77%), perf. rating 131
09/25 L 28-27 H #181 West Muskingum (6-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 15 (17%), perf. rating 122
10/02 L 27-7 H #196 Sheridan (6-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 4 (40%), perf. rating 92
10/09 A #380 Maysville (3-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 11 (77%)
10/16 A #226 Philo (5-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 10 (26%)
10/23 H #193 Tri-Valley (4-3) D3 R11, pick: L by 12 (21%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
5.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 6-4 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.05 ( 4.70-14.00) 2% in, proj. out (#9-out), West Muskingum (6-1) 46%
Lose: 3.30 ( 2.35-11.10) out, proj. out
Based on eventual number of wins
( 9%) 6W: 12.10 (11.05-14.00) 14% in, proj. out (#9-out), West Muskingum (6-1) 46%
(26%) 5W: 8.70 ( 7.65-11.10) out, proj. out
(48%) 4W: 5.55 ( 4.70- 7.70) out, proj. out
(16%) 3W: 3.20 ( 2.35- 5.15) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 9%) WWW: 12.10 (11.05-14.00) 14% in, proj. out (#9-out), West Muskingum (6-1) 46%
(13%) WWL: 9.00 ( 8.10-11.05) out
(12%) WLW: 8.60 ( 7.65-10.15) out
( 3%) LWL: 6.30 ( 5.25- 7.70) out
( 2%) LLW: 6.25 ( 5.30- 7.30) out
(43%) WLL: 5.55 ( 4.70- 7.10) out
(16%) LLL: 3.20 ( 2.35- 5.15) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (3-4, 110.2, #293, D4 #41), 1% (must have at least 6-4 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 6 (3-3, 113.0, #267, D4 #38), 11% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 5 (3-2, 109.2, #297, D4 #39), 11% (bubble if 6-4), 5% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 4 (2-2, 102.8, #339, D4 #48), 5% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 104.5, #335, D4 #50), 11% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 101.2, #354, D4 #53), 13% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 101.0, #361, D4 #54), 20% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 97.5, #384, D4 #59), 25% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 95.4