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Rankings
#48 of 101 in Division 4
#14 of 26 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #37 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #42 in D4 (-100 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 34-19 H #162 Barnesville (4-0) D5 R17, pick: L by 29 (9%), perf. rating 103
08/28 W 41-13 A #628 Cambridge (0-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 31 (94%), perf. rating 95
09/04 L 29-14 H #85 New Lexington (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 33 (3%), perf. rating 118
09/11 W 55-0 A #665 River View (0-4) D5 R19, pick: W by 47 (99%), perf. rating 98
09/18 A #434 Meadowbrook (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 12 (77%)
09/25 H #251 West Muskingum (3-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 11 (24%)
10/02 H #204 Sheridan (3-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 17 (14%)
10/09 A #467 Maysville (1-3) D3 R11, pick: W by 16 (85%)
10/16 A #148 Philo (3-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 26 (4%)
10/23 H #106 Tri-Valley (2-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 28 (3%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
5.55 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
5% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 6.05 ( 2.35-22.10) 6% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), Beaver Local (4-0) 13%
Lose: 3.30 ( 0.95-17.50) 1% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 7W: 16.15 (13.90-18.35) 95% in, 27% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Heath (3-1) 13%
( 9%) 6W: 12.20 ( 9.70-15.25) 24% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Beaver Local (4-0) 17%
(22%) 5W: 8.80 ( 6.70-11.90) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(38%) 4W: 5.55 ( 3.85- 9.75) out, proj. out
(21%) 3W: 3.30 ( 2.35- 6.15) out, proj. out
( 7%) 2W: 1.45 ( 0.95- 2.85) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WWWWWL: 16.60 (14.50-17.75) 98% in, 34% home, proj. #9 (#5-out), Heath (3-1) 13%
( 5%) WWWWLL: 12.10 (10.00-14.75) 21% in, proj. out (#9-out), Beaver Local (4-0) 15%
( 6%) WLWWLL: 8.80 ( 7.10-11.80) out
(12%) WWLWLL: 8.55 ( 6.70-10.75) out
(32%) WLLWLL: 5.25 ( 3.85- 7.55) out
(11%) LLLWLL: 3.30 ( 2.45- 4.90) out
( 9%) WLLLLL: 3.25 ( 2.35- 5.15) out
( 7%) LLLLLL: 1.45 ( 0.95- 2.85) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 102.8, #339, D4 #48), 5% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 3 (1-2, 104.5, #335, D4 #50), 11% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 2 (1-1, 101.2, #354, D4 #53), 13% (bubble if 6-4), 4% home (likely needs 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (0-1, 101.0, #361, D4 #54), 20% (bubble if 6-4), 7% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 97.5, #384, D4 #59), 25% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Last season 95.4