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Rankings
#46 of 102 in Division 4
#11 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #17 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #60 in D4 (-267 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 28-7 H #383 Fredericktown (4-2) D6 R23, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 127
08/28 L 14-6 A #260 Heath (4-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 9 (67%), perf. rating 104
09/04 L 12-0 A #320 Mount Vernon (2-4) D2 R7, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 90
09/11 L 26-22 A #333 Marion Harding (4-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 13 (22%), perf. rating 101
09/18 L 47-6 H #39 Shelby (6-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 40 (1%), perf. rating 95
09/25 W 24-21 H #252 Galion (2-4) D5 R18, pick: L by 18 (13%), perf. rating 118
10/02 A #510 River Valley (Caled.) (0-6) D4 R14, pick: W by 24 (94%)
10/09 H #132 Clear Fork (5-1) D4 R14, pick: L by 24 (6%)
10/16 A #91 Ontario (6-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/23 H #371 Pleasant (2-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 8 (70%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
7.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#10 seed in R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
60% (bubble if 4-6), 6% home (maybe if 5-5)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.55 ( 4.35-17.75) 62% in, 7% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Bellevue (4-2) 25%
Lose: 6.50 ( 4.25-12.90) 33% in, 2% home, proj. out (#7-out), Bellevue (4-2) 32%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 7%) 5W: 12.05 (10.25-14.25) 100% in, 74% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), Firelands (4-2) 35%
(61%) 4W: 7.90 ( 6.10-12.90) 77% in, 2% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Bellevue (4-2) 27%
(29%) 3W: 6.50 ( 4.35-10.50) 20% in, proj. out (#9-out), Bellevue (4-2) 34%
( 3%) 2W: 5.75 ( 4.25- 7.00) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WLWW: 12.60 (10.25-14.25) 100% in, 79% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), Firelands (4-2) 37%
( 5%) WWLW: 11.90 (10.30-13.55) 100% in, 72% home, proj. #8 (#6-#11), Firelands (4-2) 34%
(59%) WLLW: 7.90 ( 6.10- 9.90) 77% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#7-out), Bellevue (4-2) 28%
( 3%) LLLW: 7.40 ( 5.15- 8.90) 58% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Bellevue (4-2) 34%
(27%) WLLL: 6.35 ( 4.35- 8.00) 16% in, proj. out (#9-out), Bellevue (4-2) 34%
( 3%) LLLL: 5.75 ( 4.25- 7.00) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), Bellevue (4-2) 35%
Weekly summary info
Week 6 (2-4, 105.4, #329, D4 #46), 60% (bubble if 4-6), 6% home (maybe if 5-5), proj. #10 at 4-6
Week 5 (1-4, 101.1, #356, D4 #54), 14% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 4 (1-3, 102.4, #343, D4 #49), 10% (bubble if 4-6), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 99.0, #372, D4 #57), 12% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 101.9, #348, D4 #51), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 105.7, #320, D4 #45), 40% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 95.8, #403, D4 #61), 27% (bubble if 4-6), 12% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 95.6