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Rankings
#57 of 101 in Division 4
#15 of 25 in Region 14
Strength of schedule #21 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #79 in D4 (-460 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 28-7 H #419 Fredericktown (2-1) D6 R23, pick: W by 2 (54%), perf. rating 121
08/28 L 14-6 A #331 Heath (2-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 9 (67%), perf. rating 95
09/04 L 12-0 A #356 Mount Vernon (1-2) D2 R7, pick: L by 2 (46%), perf. rating 86
09/11 A #290 Marion Harding (2-1) D2 R7, pick: L by 13 (22%)
09/18 H #20 Shelby (3-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 45 (1%)
09/25 H #187 Galion (2-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 22 (8%)
10/02 A #422 River Valley (Caled.) (0-3) D4 R14, pick: W by 6 (65%)
10/09 H #81 Clear Fork (3-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/16 A #65 Ontario (3-0) D3 R10, pick: L by 37 (1%)
10/23 H #460 Pleasant (1-2) D5 R18, pick: W by 15 (84%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
4.75 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R14 playoffs
Playoff chances now
12% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 6-4)
Depending on the next game
Win: 7.40 ( 3.75-20.15) 39% in, 6% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), Firelands (2-1) 14%
Lose: 4.00 ( 1.25-21.40) 5% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Bellevue (2-1) 16%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 1%) 6W: 14.55 (13.10-18.40) 100% in, 79% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#4-#11), Buckeye (0-3) 15%
( 5%) 5W: 10.55 ( 8.60-15.15) 91% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Firelands (2-1) 17%
(17%) 4W: 7.45 ( 5.30-12.95) 33% in, 1% home, proj. out (#6-out), Bellevue (2-1) 17%
(35%) 3W: 4.75 ( 3.00-10.65) 3% in, proj. out (#9-out), Bellevue (2-1) 20%
(31%) 2W: 3.60 ( 1.75- 8.35) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
(11%) 1W: 2.80 ( 1.25- 3.95) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) WLLWWLW: 11.38 ( 9.80-13.00) 97% in, 22% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), Buckeye (0-3) 14%
( 3%) WLWWLLW: 10.15 ( 8.60-12.05) 87% in, 6% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Firelands (2-1) 17%
(10%) WLLWLLW: 7.30 ( 5.70- 9.30) 27% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Bellevue (2-1) 19%
( 4%) LLWWLLW: 7.10 ( 5.30-10.00) 23% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Bellevue (2-1) 18%
(28%) LLLWLLW: 4.55 ( 3.00- 7.00) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Bellevue (2-1) 19%
(20%) LLLLLLW: 3.60 ( 2.05- 5.85) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Clear Fork (3-0) 33%
( 9%) LLLWLLL: 3.30 ( 1.75- 5.30) out
(11%) LLLLLLL: 2.80 ( 1.25- 3.95) out
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (1-2, 99.0, #372, D4 #57), 12% (bubble if 4-6), 2% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 101.9, #348, D4 #51), 28% (bubble if 5-5), 8% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 3-7
Week 1 (1-0, 105.7, #320, D4 #45), 40% (bubble if 5-5), 17% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 95.8, #403, D4 #61), 27% (bubble if 4-6), 12% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 95.6