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Rankings
#11 of 101 in Division 4
#2 of 26 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #44 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #7 in D4 (+457 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 33-14 A #283 Fairfield Union (2-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 24 (86%), perf. rating 142
08/28 W 36-14 H #195 Philo (2-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 20 (84%), perf. rating 154
09/04 W 29-14 A #335 John Glenn (1-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 33 (97%), perf. rating 129
09/11 H #448 Crooksville (2-1) D6 R23, pick: W by 39 (99%)
09/18 A #568 Coshocton (1-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 46 (99%)
09/25 H #67 Tri-Valley (2-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/02 H #407 Meadowbrook (1-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 36 (99%)
10/09 A #296 West Muskingum (2-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 26 (96%)
10/16 H #467 Morgan (1-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 41 (99%)
10/23 A #180 Sheridan (2-1) D3 R11, pick: W by 13 (80%)
Regular season projections
9-1 record
26.50 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#2 seed in R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
likely in and likely home, 95% bye (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 26.75 (12.25-32.95) 99% in, 99% home, 95% bye, proj. #2 (#1-out), bye 95%
Lose: 21.35 (12.15-29.35) 99% in, 92% home, 61% bye, proj. #3 (#1-out), bye 61%
Based on eventual number of wins
(32%) 10W: 30.95 (27.05-32.95) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
(42%) 9W: 26.50 (22.40-31.85) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(20%) 8W: 22.65 (19.10-27.40) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 94%
( 5%) 7W: 19.00 (14.25-23.60) 99% in, 96% home, 38% bye, proj. #5 (#2-out), bye 38%
( 1%) 6W: 16.15 (12.50-18.55) 100% in, 63% home, 3% bye, proj. #8 (#3-#12), East Liverpool (2-1) 12%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(32%) WWWWWWW: 30.95 (27.05-32.95) 100% bye, proj. #1 (#1-#2), bye 100%
( 1%) WWWWLWW: 27.15 (23.70-29.80) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 5%) WWWWWWL: 26.65 (23.00-29.55) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
(35%) WWLWWWW: 26.50 (22.40-29.25) 100% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#4), bye 100%
( 1%) WWLLWWW: 23.77 (20.60-26.20) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#5), bye 94%
( 3%) WWLWLWW: 22.65 (19.50-24.95) 100% home, 92% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 92%
(14%) WWLWWWL: 22.30 (19.10-25.05) 100% home, 94% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#7), bye 94%
( 3%) WWLWLWL: 18.45 (14.25-22.10) 99% in, 93% home, 25% bye, proj. #6 (#2-out), bye 25%
Weekly summary info
Week 3 (3-0, 140.4, #89, D4 #11), likely in and likely home, 95% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 2 (2-0, 145.2, #73, D4 #5), likely in and likely home, 96% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 10-0
Week 1 (1-0, 139.7, #93, D4 #8), likely in, 95% home (maybe if 6-4), 84% bye (maybe if 7-3), proj. #2 at 9-1
Week 0 (0-0, 138.8, #100, D4 #9), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 88% home (maybe if 6-4), 70% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #1 at 9-1
Last season 141.8