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Region 19 playoff probabilities
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Rankings
#22 of 105 in Division 5
#4 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #64 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #70 in D5 (0 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 A #241 Fort Frye (0-0) D5 R19, pick: W by 1 (52%)
08/28 H #508 Shaw (0-0) D5 R17, pick: W by 34 (96%)
09/04 A #560 Coshocton (0-0) D5 R19, pick: W by 36 (98%)
09/11 A Wheeling Cent. Cath. WV (0-0) D7
09/18 H #596 Buckeye Trail (0-0) D6 R23, pick: W by 41 (99%)
09/25 H #31 Indian Valley (0-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/02 H #420 Claymont (0-0) D4 R15, pick: W by 25 (95%)
10/09 A #578 Sandy Valley (0-0) D5 R17, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/16 H #558 Tuscarawas Valley (0-0) D5 R17, pick: W by 37 (99%)
10/23 A #135 Garaway (0-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 16 (15%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
13.31 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#8 seed in R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
75% (bubble if 6-4), 43% home (maybe if 7-3), 11% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 15.69 ( 3.33-30.27) 93% in, 66% home, 20% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 22%
Lose: 10.86 ( 0.00-25.53) 56% in, 18% home, 2% bye, proj. #12 (#1-out), Portsmouth (0-0) 9%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 10W: 22.84 (16.64-30.27) 100% home, 87% bye, proj. #3 (#1-#8), bye 87%
(11%) 9W: 19.46 (12.17-28.64) 99% in, 96% home, 50% bye, proj. #5 (#1-out), bye 50%
(24%) 8W: 16.25 ( 9.21-24.42) 99% in, 78% home, 15% bye, proj. #7 (#1-out), bye 16%
(28%) 7W: 13.31 ( 7.28-21.16) 90% in, 37% home, 2% bye, proj. #9 (#2-out), Portsmouth (0-0) 9%
(20%) 6W: 10.71 ( 4.79-21.27) 58% in, 8% home, 1% bye, proj. #12 (#3-out), Grove City Christian (0-0) 9%
( 9%) 5W: 8.32 ( 3.93-15.77) 22% in, 1% home, proj. out (#5-out), Portsmouth (0-0) 11%
( 4%) 4W: 6.19 ( 2.87-11.80) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
( 1%) 3W: 4.57 ( 1.66- 9.51) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 1%) 2W: 2.86 ( 0.90- 7.23) out, proj. out
Most likely first round opponents
Portsmouth (0-0) 7%
Grove City Christian (0-0) 7%
Fairland (0-0) 6%
Dawson-Bryant (0-0) 6%
Most likely second round opponents
Wheelersburg (0-0) 17%
Ironton (0-0) 17%
Columbus Academy (0-0) 12%
Africentric Early Coll. (0-0) 9%
Fort Frye (0-0) 8%
Weekly summary info
Week 0 (0-0, 112.6, #263, D5 #29), 81% (bubble if 5-5), 59% home (maybe if 6-4), 22% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Last season 117.6