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Rankings
#26 of 106 in Division 5
#5 of 27 in Region 19
Strength of schedule #64 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #38 in D5 (-60 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 19-14 A #215 Fort Frye (6-1) D5 R19, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 115
08/28 W 34-16 H #577 Shaw (2-5) D5 R17, pick: W by 27 (91%), perf. rating 90
09/04 W 38-0 A #555 Coshocton (2-5) D5 R19, pick: W by 33 (97%), perf. rating 129
09/11 W 14-12 A Wheeling Cent. Cath. WV (3-3) D6
09/18 W 56-0 H #654 Buckeye Trail (0-7) D6 R23, pick: W by 48 (99%), perf. rating 100
09/25 L 21-7 H #29 Indian Valley (6-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 40 (1%), perf. rating 140
10/02 L 14-8 H #176 Claymont (7-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 4 (40%), perf. rating 115
10/09 A #547 Sandy Valley (1-6) D5 R17, pick: W by 33 (99%)
10/16 H #478 Tuscarawas Valley (3-4) D5 R17, pick: W by 29 (97%)
10/23 A #148 Garaway (6-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 16 (15%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
9.18 Harbin points (divisor 98)
#10 seed in R19 playoffs
Playoff chances now
97% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 7-3)
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.23 ( 6.13-14.58) 98% in, 9% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Fairland (5-2) 30%
Based on eventual number of wins
(15%) 7W: 12.64 (11.16-14.58) 100% in, 59% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Meigs (4-3) 37%
(81%) 6W: 9.18 ( 7.96-13.01) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#6-out), Fairland (5-2) 34%
( 4%) 5W: 7.35 ( 6.13- 9.65) 58% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Worthington Christian (5-2) 27%
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(15%) WWW: 12.64 (11.16-14.58) 100% in, 59% home, proj. #8 (#5-#11), Meigs (4-3) 37%
(81%) WWL: 9.18 ( 7.96-11.38) 99% in, 1% home, proj. #11 (#8-out), Fairland (5-2) 34%
( 3%) WLL: 7.05 ( 6.13- 8.68) 50% in, proj. out (#10-out), Worthington Christian (5-2) 34%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (4-3, 116.3, #246, D5 #26), 97% (bubble if 5-5), 9% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 6 (4-2, 119.7, #218, D5 #23), 97% (bubble if 5-5), 35% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 5 (4-1, 115.4, #253, D5 #28), 89% (bubble if 5-5), 28% home (maybe if 7-3), 2% bye, proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 4 (3-1, 116.1, #248, D5 #25), 67% (bubble if 6-4), 21% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 3 (2-1, 116.9, #241, D5 #25), 86% (bubble if 5-5), 52% home (maybe if 6-4), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 115.6, #247, D5 #25), 84% (bubble if 5-5), 45% home (maybe if 6-4), 6% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #9 at 6-4
Week 1 (0-1, 115.8, #242, D5 #24), 72% (bubble if 5-5), 33% home (maybe if 7-3), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #10 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 118.7, #215, D5 #22), 76% (bubble if 6-4), 44% home (maybe if 7-3), 11% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #8 at 7-3
Last season 117.6