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Rankings
#41 of 107 in Division 6
#10 of 27 in Region 23
Strength of schedule #35 in D6 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #22 in D6 (+92 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 21-12 A #442 Newcomerstown (2-2) D6 R23, pick: L by 19 (19%), perf. rating 102
08/29 W 30-6 A #635 Buckeye Trail (0-4) D6 R23, pick: W by 13 (74%), perf. rating 92
09/05 W 48-0 H #648 River View (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 30 (95%), perf. rating 108
09/12 W 39-33 H #414 Meadowbrook (1-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 3 (43%), perf. rating 100
09/19 H #349 Morgan (2-2) D5 R19, pick: L by 7 (33%)
09/26 A #291 Philo (3-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 18 (13%)
10/03 A #404 West Muskingum (1-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 3 (42%)
10/10 H #534 Coshocton (1-3) D5 R18, pick: W by 21 (92%)
10/17 H #148 New Lexington (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/24 A #474 Maysville (2-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 9 (72%)
Regular season projections
6-4 record
9.90 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R23 playoffs
Playoff chances now
43% (bubble if 7-3), 16% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 14.45 ( 6.55-24.50) 78% in, 41% home, 12% bye, proj. #9 (#1-out), bye 15%
Lose: 9.70 ( 3.75-21.05) 25% in, 4% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#1-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 6%) 9W: 18.50 (16.20-21.05) 100% home, 56% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 56%
(16%) 8W: 15.20 (12.95-20.30) 99% in, 59% home, 3% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 13%
(26%) 7W: 12.40 (10.10-16.15) 73% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Ridgewood (4-0) 14%
(29%) 6W: 9.90 ( 7.90-13.55) 7% in, proj. out (#9-out), Colonel Crawford (4-0) 15%
(19%) 5W: 7.70 ( 5.55-11.30) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
( 5%) 4W: 6.05 ( 3.75- 8.20) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 5%) WWWWLW: 18.30 (16.20-20.65) 100% home, 50% bye, proj. #4 (#1-#8), bye 50%
(10%) WLWWLW: 15.10 (12.95-17.40) 99% in, 55% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), Grove City Christian (3-1) 14%
(13%) LLWWLW: 12.35 (10.80-15.15) 73% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Ridgewood (4-0) 13%
( 7%) WLLWLW: 12.30 (10.10-15.75) 66% in, 3% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Ridgewood (4-0) 14%
( 4%) LLWWLL: 9.80 ( 8.20-12.30) 4% in, proj. out (#11-out), Ridgewood (4-0) 26%
(17%) LLLWLW: 9.75 ( 8.05-12.50) 5% in, proj. out (#10-out), Colonel Crawford (4-0) 20%
(14%) LLLWLL: 7.60 ( 5.55-10.60) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Northmor (2-2) 100%
( 5%) LLLLLL: 6.05 ( 3.75- 8.20) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (4-0, 93.8, #410, D6 #41), 43% (bubble if 7-3), 16% home (maybe if 8-2), 4% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 6-4
Week 3 (3-0, 92.9, #411, D6 #41), 34% (bubble if 6-4), 16% home (likely needs 8-2), 5% bye (likely needs 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 2 (2-0, 87.7, #449, D6 #48), 25% (bubble if 6-4), 12% home (likely needs 8-2), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 83.2, #489, D6 #56), 20% (bubble if 6-4), 8% home (maybe if 8-2), 2% bye, proj. out at 4-6
Week 0 (0-0, 72.3, #547, D6 #68), 9% (bubble if 7-3), 4% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 74.3