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Rankings
#68 of 106 in Division 5
#20 of 28 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #37 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #55 in D5 (-181 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 35-0 H #596 Waynedale (1-6) D5 R18, pick: L by 3 (45%), perf. rating 110
08/28 W 35-13 H #555 Coshocton (2-5) D5 R19, pick: W by 10 (69%), perf. rating 101
09/04 L 33-0 A #393 East Knox (4-3) D6 R23, pick: W by 1 (52%), perf. rating 48
09/11 L 37-0 A #277 Fairless (3-4) D5 R17, pick: L by 20 (12%), perf. rating 59
09/18 W 30-20 A #509 East Canton (5-2) D7 R25, pick: L by 7 (33%), perf. rating 96
09/25 L 49-16 H #148 Garaway (6-1) D6 R23, pick: L by 36 (1%), perf. rating 80
10/02 L 41-7 A #29 Indian Valley (6-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 49 (1%), perf. rating 114
10/09 H #176 Claymont (7-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 32 (2%)
10/16 A #246 Ridgewood (4-3) D5 R19, pick: L by 29 (3%)
10/23 A #547 Sandy Valley (1-6) D5 R17, pick: W by 9 (72%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
6.40 Harbin points (divisor 99)
out of R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
2% (bubble if 5-5), no home game
Depending on the next game
Win: 10.23 ( 8.62-13.61) 74% in, proj. #12 (#9-out), Conneaut (6-1) 33%
Lose: 6.04 ( 4.43-10.23) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 5%) 5W: 9.42 ( 8.21-11.80) 38% in, proj. out (#10-out), Conneaut (6-1) 35%
(68%) 4W: 6.40 ( 5.24-10.18) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(27%) 3W: 5.59 ( 4.43- 6.86) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WLW: 10.23 ( 9.42-11.80) 74% in, proj. #12 (#10-out), Conneaut (6-1) 33%
( 3%) LWW: 9.02 ( 8.21-10.23) 10% in, proj. out (#11-out), Conneaut (6-1) 50%
(68%) LLW: 6.40 ( 5.24- 7.96) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Conneaut (6-1) 67%
(27%) LLL: 5.59 ( 4.43- 6.86) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (3-4, 83.7, #478, D5 #68), 2% (bubble if 5-5), no home game, proj. out at 4-6
Week 6 (3-3, 79.5, #499, D5 #74), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 4-6
Week 5 (3-2, 80.4, #493, D5 #72), 2% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 4 (2-2, 76.8, #516, D5 #78), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (2-1, 79.9, #498, D5 #72), 5% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (2-0, 92.8, #412, D5 #53), 29% (bubble if 6-4), 9% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 5-5
Week 1 (1-0, 88.1, #435, D5 #62), 21% (bubble if 6-4), 6% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Week 0 (0-0, 69.6, #558, D5 #85), 8% (bubble if 6-4), 2% home (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 3-7
Last season 69.2