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Rankings
#83 of 106 in Division 5
#22 of 28 in Region 17
Strength of schedule #40 in D5 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #79 in D5 (-395 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 21-20 A #552 Waynedale (0-4) D5 R18, pick: L by 8 (36%), perf. rating 75
08/29 L 29-23 A #534 Coshocton (1-3) D5 R18, pick: L by 5 (40%), perf. rating 67
09/05 L 53-17 H #160 Norton (3-0) D4 R13, pick: L by 37 (2%), perf. rating 74
09/12 L 49-7 H #311 Fairless (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 25 (7%), perf. rating 43
09/19 A #481 Malvern (2-2) D7 R25, pick: L by 13 (21%)
09/26 H #241 Ridgewood (4-0) D6 R23, pick: L by 34 (2%)
10/03 A #395 Claymont (3-1) D5 R17, pick: L by 25 (5%)
10/10 A #179 Garaway (3-0) D6 R21, pick: L by 41 (1%)
10/17 H #27 Indian Valley (3-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 49 (1%)
10/24 H #607 Sandy Valley (0-4) D5 R17, pick: W by 13 (80%)
Regular season projections
2-8 record
1.78 Harbin points (divisor 97)
out of R17 playoffs
Playoff chances now
1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance)
Depending on the next game
Win: 4.14 ( 2.04-11.89) 1% in, proj. out (#10-out)
Lose: 1.78 ( 0.45- 9.84) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 3%) 4W: 6.91 ( 4.90- 9.84) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(21%) 3W: 4.14 ( 2.49- 7.85) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out)
(57%) 2W: 1.78 ( 0.90- 5.74) out, proj. out
(19%) 1W: 1.33 ( 0.45- 2.61) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WLWLLW: 6.55 ( 4.90- 8.14) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out), Liberty (3-1) 33%
( 3%) LLWLLW: 4.19 ( 3.31- 5.47) out
(15%) WLLLLW: 4.14 ( 2.49- 5.48) out
( 2%) WLLLLL: 3.33 ( 2.04- 4.82) out
(54%) LLLLLW: 1.78 ( 0.90- 3.06) out
(19%) LLLLLL: 1.33 ( 0.45- 2.61) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (1-3, 69.9, #561, D5 #83), 1% (must have at least 3-7 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 3 (1-2, 77.2, #514, D5 #75), 3% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 2 (1-1, 79.5, #505, D5 #74), 4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 2-8
Week 1 (1-0, 82.0, #497, D5 #76), 11% (bubble if 5-5), 4% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 3-7
Week 0 (0-0, 78.8, #522, D5 #78), 9% (bubble if 6-4), 3% home (maybe if 7-3), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 72.7