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Rankings
#44 of 105 in Division 4
#9 of 28 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #46 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #24 in D4 (+60 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 W 26-21 A #254 Heath (1-3) D4 R15, pick: L by 15 (25%), perf. rating 124
08/29 L 37-20 H #148 New Lexington (4-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 17 (20%), perf. rating 105
09/05 W 38-21 A #474 Maysville (2-2) D4 R15, pick: W by 6 (63%), perf. rating 110
09/12 W 49-0 H #648 River View (0-4) D5 R18, pick: W by 45 (99%), perf. rating 108
09/19 A #414 Meadowbrook (1-3) D5 R19, pick: W by 15 (83%)
09/26 H #410 Crooksville (4-0) D6 R23, pick: W by 18 (87%)
10/03 H #298 Sheridan (2-2) D3 R11, pick: W by 3 (57%)
10/10 A #84 Tri-Valley (3-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 30 (2%)
10/17 A #301 John Glenn (3-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/24 H #349 Morgan (2-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 9 (72%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
16.80 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#8 seed in R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
80% (bubble if 5-5), 50% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 16.45 ( 6.15-26.80) 87% in, 57% home, 9% bye, proj. #8 (#1-out), Circleville (4-0) 11%
Lose: 11.30 ( 4.05-24.15) 47% in, 16% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#2-out), East (Columbus) (3-1) 14%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 9W: 24.62 (22.05-26.80) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 96%
(23%) 8W: 20.15 (16.65-24.15) 100% in, 99% home, 23% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 23%
(29%) 7W: 16.80 (13.40-20.60) 100% in, 78% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), Circleville (4-0) 14%
(23%) 6W: 13.80 (10.35-17.30) 94% in, 13% home, 1% bye, proj. #10 (#4-out), East (Columbus) (3-1) 14%
(14%) 5W: 11.05 ( 7.70-14.40) 34% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 18%
( 7%) 4W: 8.52 ( 6.15-11.15) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
( 2%) 3W: 5.75 ( 4.05- 8.05) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 2%) WWWWWW: 24.62 (22.05-26.80) 100% home, 96% bye, proj. #2 (#1-#6), bye 96%
(21%) WWWLWW: 20.10 (16.65-23.35) 100% in, 99% home, 22% bye, proj. #5 (#1-#10), bye 22%
( 8%) WWLLWW: 17.20 (13.85-19.85) 100% in, 83% home, 1% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), Johnstown (2-2) 15%
(13%) WWWLLW: 16.50 (13.40-20.00) 100% in, 73% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-#12), Circleville (4-0) 14%
( 8%) WWLLLW: 13.70 (11.15-16.25) 94% in, 11% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), East (Columbus) (3-1) 15%
( 5%) WWWLLL: 13.53 (10.35-16.60) 91% in, 8% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), East (Columbus) (3-1) 15%
( 6%) WWLLLL: 11.05 ( 8.25-14.40) 30% in, proj. out (#9-out), Indian Creek (4-0) 19%
( 2%) LLLLLL: 5.75 ( 4.05- 8.05) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (3-1, 110.0, #291, D4 #44), 80% (bubble if 5-5), 50% home (maybe if 7-3), 7% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 3 (2-1, 114.7, #255, D4 #40), 89% (bubble if 5-5), 57% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 104.2, #329, D4 #49), 53% (bubble if 6-4), 24% home (maybe if 7-3), 3% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 6-4
Week 1 (1-0, 107.9, #304, D4 #42), 60% (bubble if 6-4), 33% home (maybe if 7-3), 11% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #12 at 6-4
Week 0 (0-0, 100.2, #355, D4 #59), 28% (bubble if 6-4), 14% home (maybe if 7-3), 5% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 97.9