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Rankings
#33 of 102 in Division 4
#7 of 26 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #39 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #23 in D4 (+98 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 50-21 H #243 Heath (5-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 3 (45%), perf. rating 158
08/28 L 36-14 A #80 New Lexington (7-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 20 (16%), perf. rating 112
09/04 W 35-6 A #516 Morgan (1-6) D5 R19, pick: W by 26 (93%), perf. rating 123
09/11 W 31-29 H #193 Tri-Valley (4-3) D3 R11, pick: L by 21 (11%), perf. rating 125
09/18 L 42-21 A #181 West Muskingum (6-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 12 (77%), perf. rating 96
09/25 W 38-6 H #488 Meadowbrook (2-5) D5 R19, pick: W by 32 (98%), perf. rating 128
10/02 W 48-0 H #648 River View (0-7) D5 R19, pick: W by 49 (99%), perf. rating 102
10/09 A #196 Sheridan (6-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 7 (32%)
10/16 H #293 John Glenn (3-4) D4 R15, pick: W by 10 (74%)
10/23 A #380 Maysville (3-4) D3 R11, pick: W by 19 (89%)
Regular season projections
7-3 record
16.05 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
88% (bubble if 6-4), 56% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2)
Depending on the next game
Win: 19.90 (13.85-21.85) 99% in, 98% home, 30% bye, proj. #5 (#3-out), bye 30%
Lose: 15.30 ( 9.55-17.60) 83% in, 36% home, 1% bye, proj. #9 (#4-out), Beaver Local (4-3) 19%
Based on eventual number of wins
(25%) 8W: 19.95 (19.00-21.85) 100% home, 38% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), bye 38%
(48%) 7W: 16.05 (14.70-18.90) 99% in, 65% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Beaver Local (4-3) 21%
(23%) 6W: 13.35 (11.85-16.05) 67% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), West Muskingum (6-1) 28%
( 4%) 5W: 11.00 ( 9.55-12.35) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(25%) WWW: 19.95 (19.00-21.85) 100% home, 38% bye, proj. #5 (#3-#8), bye 38%
( 2%) WWL: 17.25 (15.75-18.50) 100% in, 99% home, 2% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Union Local (6-1) 22%
( 5%) WLW: 17.20 (16.20-18.90) 100% in, 99% home, 1% bye, proj. #6 (#4-#9), Marion-Franklin (3-4) 16%
(41%) LWW: 15.80 (14.70-17.60) 99% in, 59% home, 1% bye, proj. #8 (#4-out), Beaver Local (4-3) 22%
(17%) LLW: 13.35 (11.90-15.15) 66% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), West Muskingum (6-1) 29%
( 5%) LWL: 13.30 (11.85-15.25) 66% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), West Muskingum (6-1) 27%
( 4%) LLL: 11.00 ( 9.55-12.35) 6% in, proj. out (#11-out), West Muskingum (6-1) 30%
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (5-2, 118.7, #226, D4 #33), 88% (bubble if 6-4), 56% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 6 (4-2, 120.2, #216, D4 #31), 94% (likely needs 6-4), 73% home (likely needs 7-3), 21% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #6 at 7-3
Week 5 (3-2, 119.9, #220, D4 #30), 95% (bubble if 5-5), 66% home (maybe if 7-3), 19% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 4 (3-1, 130.1, #148, D4 #15), likely in, 92% home (maybe if 7-3), 62% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #3 at 9-1
Week 3 (2-1, 123.1, #195, D4 #23), 83% (bubble if 6-4), 54% home (maybe if 7-3), 15% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #8 at 7-3
Week 2 (1-1, 121.9, #207, D4 #27), 81% (bubble if 6-4), 50% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 121.2, #206, D4 #24), 77% (bubble if 6-4), 54% home (maybe if 7-3), 21% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 105.5, #313, D4 #45), 44% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 108.7