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Rankings
#27 of 101 in Division 4
#8 of 26 in Region 15
Strength of schedule #59 in D4 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #29 in D4 (+45 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 W 50-21 H #354 Heath (1-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 3 (45%), perf. rating 142
08/28 L 36-14 A #73 New Lexington (2-0) D4 R15, pick: L by 20 (16%), perf. rating 114
09/04 A #423 Morgan (1-1) D5 R19, pick: W by 26 (93%)
09/11 H #153 Tri-Valley (1-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 6 (36%)
09/18 A #364 West Muskingum (1-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 20 (89%)
09/25 H #439 Meadowbrook (0-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 30 (97%)
10/02 H #676 River View (0-2) D5 R19, pick: W by 49 (99%)
10/09 A #216 Sheridan (1-1) D3 R11, pick: L by 1 (47%)
10/16 H #353 John Glenn (1-1) D4 R15, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/23 A #489 Maysville (1-1) D3 R11, pick: W by 31 (98%)
Regular season projections
8-2 record
5.46 Harbin points (divisor 100)
#7 seed in R15 playoffs
Playoff chances now
83% (bubble if 6-4), 50% home (likely needs 8-2), 12% bye (maybe if 9-1)
Depending on the next game
Win: 5.32 ( 1.68- 6.62) 86% in, 52% home, 12% bye, proj. #8 (#2-out), bye 15%
Lose: 3.90 ( 1.18- 5.86) 44% in, 10% home, proj. out (#5-out), Fairfield Union (1-1) 15%
Based on eventual number of wins
(21%) 9W: 6.32 ( 5.89- 6.62) 100% home, 52% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 52%
(30%) 8W: 5.46 ( 5.04- 5.94) 99% in, 83% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-out), East Liverpool (2-0) 12%
(27%) 7W: 4.64 ( 4.22- 5.20) 96% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Union Local (2-0) 16%
(14%) 6W: 3.88 ( 3.52- 4.39) 45% in, proj. out (#9-out), Union Local (2-0) 15%
( 6%) 5W: 3.19 ( 2.82- 3.60) 3% in, proj. out (#11-out)
Under certain win/loss scenarios
(21%) WWWWWWWW: 6.33 ( 5.89- 6.62) 100% home, 52% bye, proj. #4 (#2-#8), bye 52%
(18%) WLWWWWWW: 5.46 ( 5.09- 5.88) 100% in, 83% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#12), East Liverpool (2-0) 11%
( 9%) WWWWWLWW: 5.43 ( 5.04- 5.77) 100% in, 81% home, 2% bye, proj. #7 (#3-#11), East Liverpool (2-0) 14%
( 2%) WLWWWWLW: 4.71 ( 4.37- 5.00) 98% in, 13% home, proj. #10 (#6-out), East Liverpool (2-0) 15%
(18%) WLWWWLWW: 4.61 ( 4.22- 4.94) 96% in, 15% home, proj. #10 (#5-out), Union Local (2-0) 17%
( 4%) WLWWWLLW: 3.88 ( 3.58- 4.17) 47% in, proj. out (#9-out), Union Local (2-0) 21%
( 4%) WLLWWLWW: 3.80 ( 3.52- 4.08) 30% in, proj. out (#9-out), Fairfield Union (1-1) 19%
Weekly summary info
Week 2 (1-1, 121.9, #207, D4 #27), 81% (bubble if 6-4), 50% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 9-1), proj. #11 at 7-3
Week 1 (1-0, 121.2, #206, D4 #24), 77% (bubble if 6-4), 54% home (maybe if 7-3), 21% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. #7 at 7-3
Week 0 (0-0, 105.5, #313, D4 #45), 44% (bubble if 5-5), 25% home (maybe if 7-3), 10% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 5-5
Last season 108.7