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Rankings
#66 of 107 in Division 3
#18 of 28 in Region 10
Strength of schedule #21 in D3 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #46 in D3 (-95 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/22 L 56-14 H #28 Shelby (4-0) D4 R14, pick: L by 30 (8%), perf. rating 98
08/29 W 20-7 A #375 River Valley (Caled.) (2-2) D4 R14, pick: L by 14 (24%), perf. rating 121
09/05 L 57-6 A #140 Ontario (2-2) D3 R10, pick: L by 17 (17%), perf. rating 73
09/12 W 28-17 A #446 Wooster (0-4) D2 R7, pick: W by 15 (81%), perf. rating 105
09/19 H #119 West Holmes (3-1) D4 R15, pick: L by 27 (5%)
09/26 A #74 Ashland (4-0) D2 R7, pick: L by 34 (2%)
10/03 H #207 New Philadelphia (1-3) D3 R11, pick: L by 15 (17%)
10/10 A #246 Dover (1-3) D3 R11, pick: L by 14 (18%)
10/17 H #133 Lexington (3-1) D3 R10, pick: L by 26 (4%)
10/24 A #401 Mansfield Senior (0-4) D3 R10, pick: W by 7 (68%)
Regular season projections
3-7 record
3.70 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R10 playoffs
Playoff chances now
2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 8.75 ( 4.65-22.25) 25% in, 7% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#3-out), St Marys Memorial (2-2) 12%
Lose: 3.70 ( 1.95-18.35) 1% in, 1% home, 1% bye, proj. out (#4-out), Lexington (3-1) 13%
Based on eventual number of wins
( 2%) 6W: 12.50 (10.85-17.20) 71% in, 7% home, proj. #12 (#6-out), Copley (3-1) 12%
( 7%) 5W: 8.95 ( 7.05-14.65) 6% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out)
(21%) 4W: 6.15 ( 4.75-10.95) 1% in, proj. out (#11-out)
(41%) 3W: 3.70 ( 3.05- 9.10) out, proj. out
(27%) 2W: 2.50 ( 1.95- 5.20) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 1%) LLWWWW: 12.40 (11.00-14.55) 64% in, 5% home, proj. #12 (#7-out), Toledo Central Catholic (1-3) 14%
( 3%) LLWWLW: 8.18 ( 7.05-10.65) out
( 2%) LLLLWW: 7.50 ( 6.35- 9.85) out
( 7%) LLWLLW: 5.85 ( 4.75- 8.50) out
( 9%) LLLWLW: 5.80 ( 4.80- 8.15) out
( 3%) LLWLLL: 4.55 ( 3.10- 6.75) out
(35%) LLLLLW: 3.65 ( 3.05- 5.90) out
(27%) LLLLLL: 2.50 ( 1.95- 5.20) out
Weekly summary info
Week 4 (2-2, 104.2, #338, D3 #66), 2% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (1-2, 104.2, #347, D3 #67), 4% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 2 (1-1, 115.0, #259, D3 #58), 25% (bubble if 5-5), 13% home (maybe if 6-4), 3% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 4-6
Week 1 (0-1, 102.8, #342, D3 #67), 12% (bubble if 5-5), 5% home (maybe if 6-4), proj. out at 2-8
Week 0 (0-0, 108.5, #288, D3 #57), 20% (bubble if 5-5), 10% home (maybe if 6-4), 4% bye (maybe if 8-2), proj. out at 2-8
Last season 111.8