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Rankings
#56 of 100 in Division 2
#15 of 25 in Region 7
Strength of schedule #50 in D2 (based on OHSAA regular season games)
Resume ranking #70 in D2 (-450 WP+)
Schedule and results
08/21 L 14-7 H #218 Orrville (6-1) D4 R13, pick: L by 26 (12%), perf. rating 108
08/28 L 32-29 A #255 Alliance (4-3) D3 R9, pick: L by 22 (13%), perf. rating 112
09/04 L 31-7 A #90 Triway (6-1) D5 R18, pick: L by 32 (4%), perf. rating 107
09/11 W 34-13 H #312 Madison (Mansfield) (3-4) D3 R10, pick: L by 19 (13%), perf. rating 137
09/18 L 44-30 A #341 Lexington (1-6) D3 R10, pick: L by 4 (40%), perf. rating 85
09/25 W 17-10 H #210 New Philadelphia (3-4) D3 R11, pick: L by 24 (6%), perf. rating 130
10/02 L 44-22 A #86 Dover (5-2) D3 R11, pick: L by 29 (3%), perf. rating 111
10/09 A #463 Mansfield Senior (1-6) D3 R10, pick: W by 22 (93%)
10/16 H #301 Ashland (4-3) D2 R7, pick: W by 3 (57%)
10/23 H #129 West Holmes (5-2) D4 R15, pick: L by 21 (8%)
Regular season projections
4-6 record
10.25 Harbin points (divisor 100)
out of R7 playoffs
Playoff chances now
8% (likely needs 5-5), home game unlikely
Depending on the next game
Win: 9.95 ( 6.10-15.80) 8% in, 1% home, proj. out (#8-out), New Albany (5-2) 30%
Lose: 6.60 ( 4.45-13.60) 2% in, proj. out (#12-out)
Based on eventual number of wins
( 8%) 5W: 14.15 (12.95-15.80) 90% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), New Albany (5-2) 29%
(50%) 4W: 10.25 ( 8.85-13.60) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), New Albany (5-2) 37%
(38%) 3W: 7.20 ( 6.10-10.50) out, proj. out
( 4%) 2W: 6.10 ( 4.45- 7.20) out, proj. out
Under certain win/loss scenarios
( 8%) WWW: 14.15 (12.95-15.80) 90% in, 1% home, proj. #12 (#8-out), New Albany (5-2) 29%
( 3%) WLW: 10.85 ( 9.70-11.95) 1% in, proj. out (#12-out), Canal Winchester (4-3) 33%
(48%) WWL: 9.95 ( 8.85-12.10) 2% in, proj. out (#11-out), New Albany (5-2) 38%
( 3%) LWL: 8.85 ( 7.20-10.50) out
(35%) WLL: 7.20 ( 6.10- 8.80) out
( 4%) LLL: 6.10 ( 4.45- 7.20) out
Weekly summary info
Week 7 (2-5, 110.6, #288, D2 #56), 8% (likely needs 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 6 (2-4, 108.8, #304, D2 #61), 10% (bubble if 5-5), home game unlikely, proj. out at 4-6
Week 5 (1-4, 103.7, #339, D2 #64), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 2-8
Week 4 (1-3, 106.7, #317, D2 #62), 4% (likely needs 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 3-7
Week 3 (0-3, 97.0, #387, D2 #71), 1% (must have at least 4-6 for any chance), proj. out at 1-9
Week 2 (0-2, 98.0, #376, D2 #71), 3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 1 (0-1, 91.6, #422, D2 #77), 3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Week 0 (0-0, 85.9, #464, D2 #86), 3% (bubble if 6-4), home game unlikely, proj. out at 1-9
Last season 79.6